A cross-over in Mexican and Mexican-American fertility rates

Against a backdrop of two new developments in the fertility behavior of the Mexican- Origin population in the U.S., the present discussion will update contemporary Mexican-Origin fertility patterns and address several theoretical weaknesses in the current approach to minority group fertility. Data come from six national surveys (three from Mexico and three from the U.S.) that cover a twenty-five year period (1975-2000). The findings demonstrate dramatic decreases in the fertility rates in Mexico at the same time that continuous increases have been documented in the fertility rates of third-or-later generation Mexican-Americans in the U.S., particularly at younger ages. These changes necessitate a reexamination of the ubiquitous theory that Mexican pronatalist values are responsible for the high fertility rates found within the Mexican-Origin population in the U.S. Instead, they point to the increasing relevance of framing the fertility behavior of the Mexican-Origin population within a racial stratification perspective that stresses the influence of U.S. social context on fertility behavior. As a step in this direction, the analysis examines fertility patterns within the Mexican-Origin population in the U.S. Special attention is given to the role of nativity/generational status in contributing to within group differences.fertility, Mexican-Americans, Mexican-Origin, Mexico

Interpreting changes in life expectancy during temporary mortality shocks

Background: Life expectancy is a pure measure of the mortality conditions faced by a population, unaffected by that population's age structure. The numerical value of life expectancy also has an intuitive interpretation, conditional on some assumptions, as the expected age at death of an average newborn. This intuitive interpretation gives life expectancy a broad appeal. Changes in life expectancy are also routinely used to assess mortality trends. Interpreting these changes is not straightforward as the assumptions underpinning the intuitive interpretation of life expectancy are no longer valid. This is particularly problematic during mortality 'shocks,' such as during wars or pandemics, when mortality changes may be sudden, temporary, and contrary to secular trends. Objective: This study aims to provide an alternative perspective on what changes in life expectancy measure that remains applicable during mortality shocks. Conclusions: Returning to two different models that the period life table may represent, I show that a difference in life expectancy is typically interpreted from the synthetic cohort model as the difference in mean longevity between different birth cohorts. However, it can also be interpreted from the stationary population model as a measure of premature mortality in a death cohort. The latter, less common interpretation makes more sense for temporary declines in life expectancy induced by mortality shocks. The absolute change in life expectancy is then an age-standardized value of the average lifespan reduction for people dying during the mortality shock. Contribution: To clarify what a decline in life expectancy measures during mortality shocks is important, especially as demographers often assess the mortality impact of those shocks using this metric, which gets widely reported beyond demographers' inner circle

Household structure and child education in Cambodia

We analyze the effects of household structure on education in Cambodia. Consistent evidence documents that residence with both biological parents benefits children’s education in Western countries. Elsewhere, the issue is gaining more attention with the growing number of “left-behind children” due to adult migration and, possibly, changes in family behavior. The extant record is both thinner and more contrasted, however. Controlling for the presence of grandparents and some household characteristics, we find children residing with both biological parents are more likely to be enrolled in school, in the appropriate grade for their age, and literate than those living with only one parent. The effect sizes appear comparable to those in most Western countries, but the effects shrink or even disappear when grandparents are present. The results for children not residing with either parent are mixed, possibly resulting from negative effects for some children and positive selection for some others.

Model-Based Quantification of Load Shift Potentials and Optimized Charging of Electric Vehicles

Managing the charging process of a large number of electric vehicles to decrease the pressure on the local electricity grid is of high interest to the utilities. Using efficient mathematical optimization techniques, the charging behavior of electric vehicles shall be optimally controlled taking into account network, vehicle, and customer requirements. We developed an efficient algorithm for calculating load shift potentials defined as the range of all charging curves meeting the customer’s requirements and respecting all individual charging and discharging constraints over time. In addition, we formulated a mixed integer linear program (MIP) applying semi-continuous variables to find cost-optimal load curves for every vehicle participating in a load shift. This problem can be solved by e.g. branch-and-bound algorithms. Results of two scenarios of Germany in 2015 and 2030 based on mobility studies show that the load shifting potential of EV is significant and contribute to a necessary relaxation of the future grid. The maximum charging and discharging power and the average battery capacity are crucial to the overall load shift potential

Model-Based Quantification of Load Shift Potentials and Optimized Charging of Electric Vehicles

Managing the charging process of a large number of electric vehicles to decrease the pressure on the local electricity grid is of high interest to the utilities. Using efficient mathematical optimization techniques, the charging behavior of electric vehicles shall be optimally controlled taking into account network, vehicle, and customer requirements. We developed an efficient algorithm for calculating load shift potentials defined as the range of all charging curves meeting the customer’s requirements and respecting all individual charging and discharging constraints over time. In addition, we formulated a mixed integer linear program (MIP) applying semi-continuous variables to find cost-optimal load curves for every vehicle participating in a load shift. This problem can be solved by e.g. branch-and-bound algorithms. Results of two scenarios of Germany in 2015 and 2030 based on mobility studies show that the load shifting potential of EV is significant and contribute to a necessary relaxation of the future grid. The maximum charging and discharging power and the average battery capacity are crucial to the overall load shift potential

Colorectal cancer incidences in Lynch syndrome: a comparison of results from the prospective lynch syndrome database and the international mismatch repair consortium

Objective To compare colorectal cancer (CRC) incidences in carriers of pathogenic variants of the MMR genes in the PLSD and IMRC cohorts, of which only the former included mandatory colonoscopy surveillance for all participants. Methods CRC incidences were calculated in an intervention group comprising a cohort of confirmed carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (path_MMR) followed prospectively by the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD). All had colonoscopy surveillance, with polypectomy when polyps were identified. Comparison was made with a retrospective cohort reported by the International Mismatch Repair Consortium (IMRC). This comprised confirmed and inferred path_MMR carriers who were first- or second-degree relatives of Lynch syndrome probands. Results In the PLSD, 8,153 subjects had follow-up colonoscopy surveillance for a total of 67,604 years and 578 carriers had CRC diagnosed. Average cumulative incidences of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers at 70 years of age were 52% in males and 41% in females; for path_MSH2 50% and 39%; for path_MSH6 13% and 17% and for path_PMS2 11% and 8%. In contrast, in the IMRC cohort, corresponding cumulative incidences were 40% and 27%; 34% and 23%; 16% and 8% and 7% and 6%. Comparing just the European carriers in the two series gave similar findings. Numbers in the PLSD series did not allow comparisons of carriers from other continents separately. Cumulative incidences at 25 years were < 1% in all retrospective groups. Conclusions Prospectively observed CRC incidences (PLSD) in path_MLH1 and path_MSH2 carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance and polypectomy were higher than in the retrospective (IMRC) series, and were not reduced in path_MSH6 carriers. These findings were the opposite to those expected. CRC point incidence before 50 years of age was reduced in path_PMS2 carriers subjected to colonoscopy, but not significantly so

The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79).

The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95 per cent simulation interval (1.2-2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5-2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1-2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21 per cent of the population at risk. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546