A hybrid ARIMA and artificial neural networks model to forecast particulate matter in urban areas: The case of Temuco, Chile

Air quality time series consists of complex linear and non-linear patterns and are difficult to forecast. Box-Jenkins Time Series (ARIMA) and multilinear regression (MLR) models have been applied to air quality forecasting in urban areas, but they have limited accuracy owing to their inability to predict extreme events. Artificial neural networks (ANN) can recognize non-linear patterns that include extremes. A novel hybrid model combining ARIMA and ANN to improve forecast accuracy for an area with limited air quality and meteorological data was applied to Temuco, Chile, where residential wood burning is a major pollution source during cold winters, using surface meteorological and PM10 measurements. Experimental results indicated that the hybrid model can be an effective tool to improve the PM10 forecasting accuracy obtained by either of the models used separately, and compared with a deterministic MLR. The hybrid model was able to capture 100% and 80% of alert and pre-emergency episodes, respectively. This approach demonstrates the potential to be applied to air quality forecasting in other cities and countries

User-Centered Evaluation of a Discovery Layer System with Google Scholar

Discovery layer systems allow library users to obtain search results from multiple library resources and view results in a consistent format. The implementation of a discovery layer is expected to simplify users’ workflow of searching for scholarly information. Previous studies on discovery layer systems focused on functionality and content, but not quality of search results from the user’s perspective. The objective of this study was to obtain users’ assessment of search results of a discovery layer system (Ex Libris Primo®) and compare that with a widely used scholarly search tool (Google Scholar). Results showed that Primo’s search results relevancy is comparable to Google Scholar, but it received significantly lower usability and preference ratings. A number of usability issues of Primo were also identified from the study. Results of the study are used to improve the interface of Primo and adjust relevancy ranking options. The empirical method of search results assessment and feedback collection used in this study can be extended to similar user-centered system implementation and evaluation efforts

Hepatic subcellular distribution of squalene changes according to the experimental setting

Squalene is the main unsaponifiable component of virgin olive oil, the main source of dietary fat in Mediterranean diet, traditionally associated with a less frequency of cardiovascular diseases. In this study, two experimental approaches were used. In the first, New Zealand rabbits fed for 4 weeks with a chow diet enriched in 1% sunflower oil for the control group, and in 1% of sunflower oil and 0.5% squalene for the squalene group. In the second, APOE KO mice received either Western diet or Western diet enriched in 0.5% squalene for 11 weeks. In both studies, liver samples were obtained and analyzed for their squalene content by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Hepatic distribution of squalene was also characterized in isolated subcellular organelles. Our results show that dietary squalene accumulates in the liver and a differential distribution according to studied model. In this regard, rabbits accumulated in cytoplasm within small size vesicles, whose size was not big enough to be considered lipid droplets, rough endoplasmic reticulum, and nuclear and plasma membranes. On the contrary, mice accumulated in large lipid droplets, and smooth reticulum fractions in addition to nuclear and plasma membranes. These results show that the squalene cellular localization may change according to experimental setting and be a starting point to characterize the mechanisms involved in the protective action of dietary squalene in several pathologies

Fracture experience among participants from the FROCAT study: what thresholding is appropriate using the FRAX tool?

ObjectiveTo perform an external validation of FRAX algorithm thresholds for reporting level of risk of fracture in Spanish women (low <5%; intermediate ?5% and <7.5%; high ?7.5%) taken from a prospective cohort “FRIDEX”.MethodsA retrospective study of 1090 women aged ?40 and ?90 years old obtained from the general population (FROCAT cohort). FRAX was calculated with data registered in 2002. All fractures were validated in 2012. Sensitivity analysis was performed.ResultsWhen analyzing the cohort (884) excluding current or past anti osteoporotic medication (AOM), using our nominated thresholds, among the 621 (70.2%) women at low risk of fracture, 5.2% [CI95%: 3.4–7.6] sustained a fragility fracture; among the 99 at intermediate risk, 12.1% [6.4–20.2]; and among the 164 defined as high risk, 15.9% [10.6–24.2]. Sensitivity analysis against model risk stratification FRIDEX of FRAX Spain shows no significant difference. By including 206 women with AOM, the sensitivity analysis shows no difference in the group of intermediate and high risk and minimal differences in the low risk group.ConclusionsOur findings support and validate the use of FRIDEX thresholds of FRAX when discussing the risk of fracture and the initiation of therapy with patients

Branching Fractions for D0 -> K+K- and D0 -> pi+pi-, and a Search for CP Violation in D0 Decays

Using the large hadroproduced charm sample collected in experiment E791 at Fermilab, we have measured ratios of branching fractions for the two-body singly-Cabibbo-suppressed charged decays of the D0: (D0 -> KK)/(D0 -> Kpi) = 0.109 +- 0.003 +- 0.003, (D0 -> pipi)/(D0 -> Kpi) = 0.040 +- 0.002 +- 0.003, and (D0 -> KK)/(D0 -> pipi) = 2.75 +- 0.15 +- 0.16. We have looked for differences in the decay rates of D0 and D0bar to the CP eigenstates K+K- and pi+pi-, and have measured the CP asymmetry parameters A_CP(K+K-) = -0.010 +- 0.049 +- 0.012 and A_CP(pi+pi-) = -0.049 +- 0.078 +- 0.030, both consistent with zero.Comment: 10 Postscript pages, including 2 figures. Submitted to Phys. Lett.

Search for CP Violation in Charged D Meson Decays

We report results of a search for CP violation in the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D+ -> K- K+ pi+, phi pi+, K*(892)0 K+, and pi- pi+ pi+ based on data from the charm hadroproduction experiment E791 at Fermilab. We search for a difference in the D+ and D- decay rates for each of the final states. No evidence for a difference is seen. The decay rate asymmetry parameters A(CP), defined as the difference in the D+ and D- decay rates divided by the sum of the decay rates, are measured to be: A(CP)(K K pi) = -0.014 +/- 0.029, A(CP)(phi pi) = -0.028 +/- 0.036, A(CP)(K*(892) K) = -0.010 +/- 0.050, and A(CP)(pi pi pi) = -0.017 +/- 0.042.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; Elsevier LaTe

Asymmetries between the production of D+ and D- mesons from 500 GeV/c pi- nucleon interactions as a function of xF and pt**2

We present asymmetries between the production of D+ and D- mesons in Fermilab experiment E791 as a function of xF and pt**2. The data used here consist of 74,000 fully-reconstructed charmed mesons produced by a 500 GeV/c pi- beam on C and Pt foils. The measurements are compared to results of models which predict differences between the production of heavy-quark mesons that have a light quark in common with the beam (leading particles) and those that do not (non-leading particles). While the default models do not agree with our data, we can reach agreement with one of them, PYTHIA, by making a limited number of changes to parameters used

Search for Rare and Forbidden Dilepton Decays of the D+, Ds, and D0 Charmed Mesons

We report the results of a search for flavor-changing neutral current, lepton-flavor violating, and lepton-number violating decays of D+, Ds, and D0 mesons (and their antiparticles) into modes containing muons and electrons. Using data from Fermilab charm hadroproduction experiment E791, we examine the pi,l,l and K,l,l decay modes of D+ and Ds and the l+l- decay modes of D0. No evidence for any of these decays is found. Therefore, we present branching-fraction upper limits at 90% confidence level for the 24 decay modes examined. Eight of these modes have no previously reported limits, and fourteen are reported with significant improvements over previously published results.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, LaTeX, elsart.cls, epsf.sty, amsmath.sty Submitted to Physics Letters