User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries

The authors develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain"vulnerable"situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, the authors use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables-which are widely available and reported with timeliness. The authors tested the models'out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994.Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Geographical Information Systems

Improving the hardware complexity by exploiting the reduced dynamics-based fractional order systems

Fractional calculus is nding increased usage in the modeling and control of nonlinear systems with the enhanced robustness. However, from the implementation perspectives, the simultaneous modeling of the systems and the design of controllers with fractional-order operators can bring additional advantages. In this paper, a fractional order model of a nonlinear system along with its controller design and its implementation on a eld programmable gate array (FPGA) is undertaken as a case study. Overall, three variants of the controllers are designed, including classical sliding mode controller, fractional controller for an integer model of the plant, and a fractional controller for a fractional model of the plant (FCFP). A high-level synthesis approach is used to map all the variants of the controllers on FPGA. The integro-differential fractional operators are realized with in nite impulse response lters architecturally implemented as cascaded secondorder sections to withstand quantization effects introduced by xed-point computations necessary for FPGA implementations. The experimental results demonstrate that the fractional order sliding mode controllerbased on fractional order plant (FCFP) exhibits reduced dynamics in sense of fractional integration and differentials. It is further veri ed that the FCFP is as robust as the classical sliding mode with comparable performance and computational resources

Diseño de un manual de funciones para el área administrativa de la Diócesis de Cartago.

La Diócesis de Cartago es una institución está conformada por 52 parroquias las cuales se encuentran ubicada en 16 municipios a través de la región del norte del valle, su cede principal está en la ciudad de Cartago, el cual cuenta con 11 empleados que trabaja para ella. Tras de ser una institución que ha perdurado a través de los años se ve la necesidad de mejorar su estructura por medio de un manual de funciones el cuales les ayude tanto en la organización de cada una de las actividades de los cargos como a que estos mejoren eficientemente y el servicio al cliente sea excelente, por ende, se diseña un manual de funciones que cumple con los requerimientos que pida el mercado hoy en día, para así guiar al administrador en procesos como, inducciones, capacitaciones, contratación y asuntos disciplinarios por parte de él hacia el empleado, mejorando así la eficiencia y la calidad.PregradoADMINISTRADOR(A) DE EMPRESA

Development and psychometric tests of the “cuidar” instrument - short version for the assessment of the competence for home care

Introduccion: Se requiere contar con escalas que midan la competencia para el cuidado en el hogar de pacientes con enfermedades crónicas por cuanto estos reciben excesivos lineamientos para su cuidado y se enfrentan a terapéuticas en extremo complejas. Objetivo: Desarrollar y realizar pruebas psicométricas del instrumento “CUIDAR” versión abreviada para valorar la competencia para el cuidado en el hogar de una persona con enfermedad crónica. Método: Estudio transversal de validación de instrumento en el que a partir de la versión original de la escala “CUIDAR” se desarrolló su versión abreviada, se realizaron pruebas de validez facial y de contenido por medio de panel de expertos, validez de constructo con análisis factorial exploratorio y pruebas de confiabilidad mediante análisis de consistencia interna con el alfa de Cronbach. Resultados: El instrumento “CUIDAR” que mide la competencia de una persona con enfermedad crónica para el cuidado en el hogar en su versión abreviada consta de 20 ítems que incluyen seis dimensiones: el Conocimiento, la Unicidad o condiciones personales para el cuidado, la Instrumental o procedimental, el Disfrute o condiciones mínimas de bienestar, la Anticipación o capacidad de prever e identificar situaciones de alarma y la Relación e Interacción social o red de apoyo con que cuenta el paciente. Su estratificación tiene niveles bajo, medio y alto. La validez con expertos evidenció claridad, coherencia, suficiencia y relevancia de la escala. El análisis factorial ratificó sus seis componentes mediante la rotación Varimax con asociación de los ítems en las mismas categorías propuestas en la versión original. El alfa de Cronbach fue de 0.928. Conclusiones: El Instrumento “CUIDAR” versión abreviada evalúa integralmente la competencia para el Cuidado en el hogar de una persona con enfermedad crónica, demostró validez de contenido, de constructo y alta consistencia interna para su uso en el contexto colombiano.     ABSTRACT Introduction: It is required to have scales that measure competency for home care of patients with chronic illness because they receive excessive guidelines for their care and they face extremely complex therapeutics. Objective: To develop and carry out psychometric tests of the instrument “CUIDAR” shortened version, to assess competition for home care of a person with chronic illness. Method: Cross-sectional study of validation of the abbreviated version of the scale “CUIDAR” facial validity tests and content through expert panel, construct validity with exploratory factor analysis and reliability testing using analysis of internal consistency with Cronbach’s alpha were conducted. Results: The “CUIDAR” instrument that measures the competence of caring for a person with chronic illness at home in its abbreviated version consists of 20 items that include six dimensions: knowledge, Singleness or personal care conditions, Instrumental or procedural aspects of care, Minimum welfare conditions, Anticipation or ability to anticipate and the Social interactions or social support network available for the patients care. The instrument stratification included low, medium and high levels of the care competence. The validity with experts showed clarity, consistency, sufficiency and relevance of the tool. Factor analysis confirmed its six components by Varimax rotation with association of the items in the same categories proposed in the original version. Cronbach’s alpha was 0.928. Conclusions: The instrument “CUIDAR” short version fully evaluated competing for home care of a person with chronic disease. It demonstrated content validity as well as construct and high internal consistency for its use in the Colombian context. &nbsp

Development and psychometric tests of the “cuidar” instrument - short version for the assessment of the competence for home care

Introduccion: Se requiere contar con escalas que midan la competencia para el cuidado en el hogar de pacientes con enfermedades crónicas por cuanto estos reciben excesivos lineamientos para su cuidado y se enfrentan a terapéuticas en extremo complejas. Objetivo: Desarrollar y realizar pruebas psicométricas del instrumento “CUIDAR” versión abreviada para valorar la competencia para el cuidado en el hogar de una persona con enfermedad crónica. Método: Estudio transversal de validación de instrumento en el que a partir de la versión original de la escala “CUIDAR” se desarrolló su versión abreviada, se realizaron pruebas de validez facial y de contenido por medio de panel de expertos, validez de constructo con análisis factorial exploratorio y pruebas de confiabilidad mediante análisis de consistencia interna con el alfa de Cronbach. Resultados: El instrumento “CUIDAR” que mide la competencia de una persona con enfermedad crónica para el cuidado en el hogar en su versión abreviada consta de 20 ítems que incluyen seis dimensiones: el Conocimiento, la Unicidad o condiciones personales para el cuidado, la Instrumental o procedimental, el Disfrute o condiciones mínimas de bienestar, la Anticipación o capacidad de prever e identificar situaciones de alarma y la Relación e Interacción social o red de apoyo con que cuenta el paciente. Su estratificación tiene niveles bajo, medio y alto. La validez con expertos evidenció claridad, coherencia, suficiencia y relevancia de la escala. El análisis factorial ratificó sus seis componentes mediante la rotación Varimax con asociación de los ítems en las mismas categorías propuestas en la versión original. El alfa de Cronbach fue de 0.928. Conclusiones: El Instrumento “CUIDAR” versión abreviada evalúa integralmente la competencia para el Cuidado en el hogar de una persona con enfermedad crónica, demostró validez de contenido, de constructo y alta consistencia interna para su uso en el contexto colombiano.     ABSTRACT Introduction: It is required to have scales that measure competency for home care of patients with chronic illness because they receive excessive guidelines for their care and they face extremely complex therapeutics. Objective: To develop and carry out psychometric tests of the instrument “CUIDAR” shortened version, to assess competition for home care of a person with chronic illness. Method: Cross-sectional study of validation of the abbreviated version of the scale “CUIDAR” facial validity tests and content through expert panel, construct validity with exploratory factor analysis and reliability testing using analysis of internal consistency with Cronbach’s alpha were conducted. Results: The “CUIDAR” instrument that measures the competence of caring for a person with chronic illness at home in its abbreviated version consists of 20 items that include six dimensions: knowledge, Singleness or personal care conditions, Instrumental or procedural aspects of care, Minimum welfare conditions, Anticipation or ability to anticipate and the Social interactions or social support network available for the patients care. The instrument stratification included low, medium and high levels of the care competence. The validity with experts showed clarity, consistency, sufficiency and relevance of the tool. Factor analysis confirmed its six components by Varimax rotation with association of the items in the same categories proposed in the original version. Cronbach’s alpha was 0.928. Conclusions: The instrument “CUIDAR” short version fully evaluated competing for home care of a person with chronic disease. It demonstrated content validity as well as construct and high internal consistency for its use in the Colombian context. &nbsp

Reduction versus abrupt cessation in smokers who want to quit.

Background\ud The standard way to stop smoking is to quit abruptly on a designated quit day. A number of smokers have tried unsuccessfully to quit this way. Reducing smoking before quitting could be an alternative approach to cessation. Before this method is adopted it is important to determine whether it is at least as successful as abrupt quitting.\ud \ud Objectives\ud 1. To compare the success of reducing smoking to quit and abrupt quitting interventions. 2. To compare adverse events between arms in studies that used pharmacotherapy to aid reduction.\ud \ud Search methods\ud We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Review Group specialised register, MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo for topic specific terms combined with terms used to identify trials of tobacco addiction interventions. We also searched reference lists of relevant papers and contacted authors of ongoing trials. Date of most recent search: November 2009.\ud \ud Selection criteria\ud We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that recruited adults who wanted to quit smoking. Studies included at least one condition which instructed participants to reduce their smoking and then quit and one condition which instructed participants to quit abruptly.\ud \ud Data collection and analysis\ud The outcome measure was abstinence from smoking after at least six months follow-up. We pooled the included trials using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect model. Trials were split for two sub-group analyses: pharmacotherapy vs no pharmacotherapy, self help therapy vs behavioural support. Adverse events were summarised as a narrative. It was not possible to compare them quantitatively as there was variation in the nature and depth of reporting across studies.\ud \ud Main results\ud Ten studies were relevant for inclusion, with a total of 3760 participants included in the meta-analysis. Three of these studies used pharmacotherapy as part of the interventions. Five studies included behavioural support in the intervention, four included self-help therapy, and the remaining study had arms which included behavioural support and arms which included self-help therapy. Neither reduction or abrupt quitting had superior abstinence rates when all the studies were combined in the main analysis (RR= 0.94, 95% CI= 0.79 to 1.13), whether pharmacotherapy was used (RR= 0.87, 95% CI= 0.65 to 1.22), or not (RR= 0.97, 95% CI= 0.78 to 1.21), whether studies included behavioural support (RR= 0.87, 95% CI= 0.64 to 1.17) or self-help therapy (RR= 0.98, 95% CI= 0.78 to1.23). We were unable to draw conclusions about the difference in adverse events between interventions, however recent studies suggest that pre-quit NRT does not increase adverse events.\ud \ud Authors' conclusions\ud Reducing cigarettes smoked before quit day and quitting abruptly, with no prior reduction, produced comparable quit rates, therefore patients can be given the choice to quit in either of these ways. Reduction interventions can be carried out using self-help materials or aided by behavioural support, and can be carried out with the aid of pre-quit NRT. Further research needs to investigate which method of reduction before quitting is the most effective, and which categories of smokers benefit the most from each method, to inform future policy and intervention development.\ud \u

Two-dimensional computational modeling of the electrokinetic remediation of a copper-contaminated soil part ii: sensitivity analysis for a triangular soil field

The computer model described in the first paper of this series was used to perform a sensitivity analysis for the electrokinetic remediation of a triangular, copper-contaminated soil field in which one anode and two cathodes are placed in the vicinity of the triangle vertices. The input variables included the initial concentration of copper in the soil , the electrical potential applied between electrodes, and the absence or presence of wash water. The output variables included the cleanup efficiency and the fraction of copper eliminated from the soil fCu. Overall, the larger the electrical potential applied between electrodes, the shorter the time to achieve steady state. When no wash water is used, the cleanup efficiency may fluctuate over time before reaching steady state. When wash water is used, the final fCu obtained depends on the initial concentration of copper in the soil

Diseño Geométrico de 5.6 Km de pavimento articulado del tramo de carretera comunidad San Luis a la comunidad ocotillo del municipio de San Juan de Limay

En el presente estudio del diseño geométrico de 5.6 km y de pavimento articulado del tramo de carretera comunidad San Luis a la comunidad Ocotillo del municipio de San Juan de Limay muestra la información básica y los criterios que se ocupan para el diseño de la estructura de pavimento articulado (Adoquín) aplicando el método AASHTO-93, en dicho trabajo se presenta en ocho capítulos, que se describen a continuación

The role of entrepreneurship and green innovation intention on sustainable development: moderating impact of inclusive leadership

Today, sustainable development (SD) is a worldwide requirement due to the numerous environmental challenges that require the attention of academics. Consequently, the current study explores the effect of entrepreneurial and green innovation aims on SD in Peru. In addition, the study examines the moderating effect of inclusive leadership on entrepreneurship, green innovation intention, and sustainable development in Peru. The study utilized primary data collection instruments such as questionnaires to collect information from the selected respondents. The paper also used smart-PLS to examine the data's dependability and the correlation between factors. In Peru, entrepreneurship and green innovation intentions were found to have a good relationship with sustainable development. In addition, the data demonstrated that inclusive leadership moderates the relationship between entrepreneurship, green innovation intention, and SD in Peru. The essay supports policy-making authorities in formulating SD-related policies by refocusing entrepreneurs' attention on green innovation.Wilson Cruz Mamani (Universidad Peruana Unión Juliaca), Germain Marcos Lagos Manrique (Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal), Soraya del Pilar Carranco Madrid (Universidad Central del Ecuador), Edward Espinoza Herrera (Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal), David Barrial Acosta (Universidad Nacional Micaela Bastidas de Apurímac), Rolando Remy Rivas-Diaz (Universidad Nacional de San Agustín), José Luis Arias-Gonzáles (University of British Columbia), Yuselino Maquera Maquera (Universidad Nacional del Altiplano Puno), Francisco Samael Saravia Ramos (Universidad Nacional De San Agustín)Includes bibliographical references