Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades.export-led growth; tradable-led growth; global imbalances; industrialization; capital accumulation

Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post financial crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries. JEL Categories: F43, O11, O53Export-led growth, tradable-led growth, global imbalances, industrialization, capital accumulation.

Nonlinear signaling on biological networks: the role of stochasticity and spectral clustering

Signal transduction within biological cells is governed by networks of interacting proteins. Communication between these proteins is mediated by signaling molecules which bind to receptors and induce stochastic transitions between different conformational states. Signaling is typically a cooperative process which requires the occurrence of multiple binding events so that reaction rates have a nonlinear dependence on the amount of signaling molecule. It is this nonlinearity that endows biological signaling networks with robust switch-like properties which are critical to their biological function. In this study, we investigate how the properties of these signaling systems depend on the network architecture. Our main result is that these nonlinear networks exhibit bistability where the network activity can switch between states that correspond to a low and high activity level. We show that this bistable regime emerges at a critical coupling strength that is determined by the spectral structure of the network. In particular, the set of nodes that correspond to large components of the leading eigenvector of the adjacency matrix determines the onset of bistability. Above this transition, the eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix determine a hierarchy of clusters, defined by its spectral properties, which are activated sequentially with increasing network activity. We argue further that the onset of bistability occurs either continuously or discontinuously depending upon whether the leading eigenvector is localized or delocalized. Finally, we show that at low network coupling stochastic transitions to the active branch are also driven by the set of nodes that contribute more strongly to the leading eigenvector.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GREAT RECESSION

This dissertation examines the short and long run effects of the Great Recession on Latin America. For the short run, this study evaluates (i) the existence of a business cycle co-movement between the US and Latin America, (ii) the role of the Latin American export structure as an aspect that may amplify the growth spillover effects of the output fluctuations in the US, and (iii) the terms of trade as a determinant of the short run output fluctuations in Colombia, a primary commodity exporter that resembles the assumptions of open small dependent economies. Consistent with the historical evidence, the US GDP contraction in 2009 had a more severe short-run effect on non-primary commodity exporters that have the US as a key export market. Econometric evidence also shows that Latin America, on average, faces a process of decoupling with the US. China and other developing economies have recently become more important geo-economic sources of output fluctuations for Latin America. Regarding the long run, the dissertation identifies that the Latin American economic growth has mainly been based on an export-led growth regime. In particular, this study finds that the current account as a proportion of GDP is a positive and statistically significant correlate of economic growth. This growth regime is vulnerable to a recent development of the world economy in the aftermath of the Great Recession: shrinkage of global imbalances

La deposición de Fotino de Sirmio

[email protected] artículo estudia la condena y deposición del obispo Fotino de Sirmio en los años 346 y 347 d.C. Las fuentes principales son Código Teodosiano, Epifanio de Salamina (Panarion Haereticon), Nestorio de Constantinopla (Sermo XII), Hilario de Poitiers (Fragrnenta Historica), Atanasio de Alejandría (Apologia confra arianos e Historia arianorum ad monachos), Sozomeno (Historia Ecciesiastica), Libanio de Antioquía (Oratio XVIII) y Sócrates (Historia Ecclesiastica).Ibis article deals with Bishop Photin of Sirmiums sentence and deposition in years 346 and 347 AD. The main sources are Theodosian Code, Epiphanius of Salamis (Panarion Haereticon), Nestorius of Constantinople (Sermo XII), Hilary of Poitiers (Fragmenta Historica), Athanasius of Alexandria (Apologia contra arianos and Historia arianorum ad monachos), Sozomen (Historia Ecciesiastica), Libanius of Antioch (Oratio XVIII) and Socrates (Historia Ecclesiastica)

La agonía del Imperio Romano de Occidente

[email protected] presente artículo afronta algunos problemas relativos a la historia romana de los años 472-476 d.C. Las fuentes principales son: Juan de Antioquía, Procopio de Cesarea y Malco.This article deals with some problems concerning roman history in years 472 – 476 A.D. The main sources are John of Antioch, Priscus, Procopius of Caesarea and Malchus

La controversia historiográfica en torno al fin de la Edad Antigua

[email protected] las doctrinas que aluden al término de la Edad Antigua pueden efectuarse tres grupos. El primero se halla constituido por aquéllas que lo relacionan con las luchas de cristianos contra paganos. Forman el segundo las hipótesis que lo unen a las trayectorias de ambos sectores del Imperio Romano en los siglos IV, V y VI d.C. El tercero abarca las ideas que lo vinculan a la génesis del Islam y sus consecuencias

Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post financial crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a countrys manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries