Shocks and systemic influences: contagion in global equity markets in 1998

The transmission of the financial crises in 1998 though international equity markets is estimated through a multi-factor model of financial markets specifically allowing for contagion effects. The application measures the strength of contagion emanating from the Russia crisis of 1998, and the LTCM near collapse, using a panel of 10 emerging and developed financial markets. Pre and post default periods for Russia are distinguished. The results show that contagion is significant and widespread from both crises, although the LTCM crises has more impact on developed than emerging markets. Consistent with the existing literature, regional effects are found to be strong during financial crises. Asian markets are found to be relatively immune from contagion, perhaps reflecting the effect of their own recent crisis

Are financial crises alike?

This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modeling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and asset classes. The crises considered are Russia and LTCM in the second half of 1998, Brazil in early 1999, dot-com in 2000, Argentina in 2001-2005, and the recent U.S. subprime mortgage and credit crisis in 2007. Using daily stock and bond returns on emerging and developed markets from 1998 to 2007, the empirical results show that financial crises are indeed alike, as all linkages are statistically important across all crises. However, the strength of these linkages does vary across crises. Contagion channels are widespread during the Russian/LTCM crisis, are less important during subsequent crises until the subprime crisis, where again the transmission of contagion becomes rampant

Fuzzy controller to compensate comunication loads in real-time

[EN] A Fuzzy Resource Manager (RM) to compensate communication loads in real-time systems is presented. The design is based on a new model of a Constant Bandwidth Server (CBS), which is responsible for assigning time slots to tasks with the highest priority when idle time is available. Assuming that each application can be executed at dierent service levels, without being below a minimum limit, a fuzzy approach is introduced that allows to adjust the time resources assigned to each task and to compensate non-linearities in time resources requests. The RM increases or decreases the virtual platform for each application and assigns a maximum process time budget for it, which is gradually used and refilled when depleted, without aecting the other applications. The scheme self-adjusts to sudden changes in applications process time requirements.[ES] Se presenta un administrador de recursos (RM) difuso para compensar las cargas de comunicación en sistemas en tiempo real. El diseño del RM se basa en un nuevo modelo de Servidor de Ancho de Banda Constante (CBS) que se encarga, a través de una plataforma virtual, de asignar tiempo de proceso a las tareas de mayor prioridad cuando existe capacidad disponible. Si se asume que cada aplicación puede ser ejecutada con diferentes niveles de servicio sin que este esté por debajo de un límite mínimo, se propone una aproximación difusa que permite actualizar de manera gradual los tiempos de proceso asignados a cada tarea. Esta aproximación permite compensar el comportamiento no lineal en las solicitudes de tiempo de proceso. El RM aumenta o disminuye la plataforma virtual para cada aplicación y le asigna un presupuesto máximo de tiempo de proceso, mismo que la aplicación usa gradualmente y que se reasigna al agotarse, sin por ello afectar el desempeño del resto de las aplicaciones. El esquema se auto-ajusta cuando ocurren a cambios repentinos en los requerimientos de tiempo de proceso de las aplicaciones.Este trabajo ha sido realizado parcialmente gracias al apoyo del CONACYT BECA 597175, PAPIIT IT100320 y PAPIIT IN104516.Aparicio-Santos, J.; Hermosillo-Gómez, J.; Benítez-Pérez, H.; Álvarez-Icaza, L. (2021). Controlador difuso para compensar cargas de comunicación en sistemas en tiempo real. Revista Iberoamericana de Automática e Informática industrial. 18(3):288-299. https://doi.org/10.4995/riai.2021.14544OJS288299183Abeni, L., Buttazzo, G., Dec 1998. Integrating multimedia applications in hard real-time systems. In: Proceedings 19th IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (Cat. No.98CB36279). pp. 4-13. https://doi.org/10.1109/REAL.1998.739726Aparicio, Santos, J. A., 2017. Diseño de un controlador difuso para compensar cargas de comunicación en tiempo real. Master's thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México.Bini, E., Buttazzo, G., Eker, J., Schorr, S., Guerra, R., Fohler, G., Arzen, K. E., Romero, V., Scordino, C., May 2011. Resource management on multicore systems: The actors approach. IEEE Micro 31 (3), 72-81. https://doi.org/10.1109/MM.2011.1Boutalis, Y., Theodoridis, D., Kottas, T., Christodoulou, M. A., 2014. System Identification and Adaptive Control: Theory and Applications of the Neurofuzzy and Fuzzy Cognitive Network Models. Springer.Buttazzo, G. C., 2011. Hard Real-Time Computing Systems: Predictable Scheduling Algorithms and Applications, 3rd Edition. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated. Byeong Gi, L., Daeyoung, P., Hanbyul, S., 2009. Wireless Communications Resource Managemen. John Wiley and Sons.Byeong Gi, L., Daeyoung, P., Hanbyul, S., 2009. Wireless Communications Resource Managemen. John Wiley and Sons.Chasparis, G., Maggio, M., Arzen, K. E., Bini, E., June 2013. Distributed management of cpu resources for time-sensitive applications. In: 2013 American Control Conference. pp. 5305-5312. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACC.2013.6580666Chasparis, G. C., Maggio, M., Bini, E., Arzen, K.-E., 2016. Desing and implementation of distributed resource management for time-sensitive applications. Automatica 64, 44 - 53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2015.09.015Clark, R. K., 1990. Scheduling dependent real-time activities. Ph.D. thesis, USA, aAI9107552.Ganz, A., Ganz, Z., Wongthavarawat, K., 2003. Multimedia Wireless Networks: Technologies, Standards and QoS. Pearson Education.Horn, W., 1974. Some simple scheduling algorithms. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 21 (1), 177-185. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800210113IEEE Standard Glossary of Software Engineering Terminology. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEESTD.1990.101064Litoiu, M., Tadei, R., 2001. Fuzzy scheduling with application to real-time systems. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 121 (3), 523 - 535. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-0114(99)00176-1Mahmoud, M., of Engineering, I., Technology, 2013. Distributed Control and Filtering for Industrial Systems. Control, Robotics and Sensors. Institution of Engineering and Technology. URL: https://books.google.com.mx/books?id=qWhWx2hRLYcC https://doi.org/10.1049/PBCE088EMok, A. K., Feng, X., May 2001. Resource partition for real-time systems. In: Proceedings Seventh IEEE Real-Time Technology and Applications Symposium. pp. 75-84. https://doi.org/10.1109/RTTAS.2001.929867Nesbit, K. J., Moreto, M., Cazorla, F. J., Ramirez, A., Valero, M., Smith, J. E., May 2008. Multicore resource management. IEEE Micro 28 (3), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.1109/MM.2008.43Quanser, 2012. USER MANUAL 3 DOF Gyroscope Experiment Set Up and Configuration. Quanser inc.Robert H. Cannon, J., 2003. Dynamics Of Physical Systems. Dover Publications, INC.Stankovic, J. A., 1988. Misconceptions about real-time computing: a serious problem for next-generation systems. Computer 21 (10), 10-19. https://doi.org/10.1109/2.7053Subrata, R., Zomaya, A. Y., Landfeldt, B., Oct 2008. A cooperative game framework for qos guided job allocation schemes in grids. IEEE Transactions on Computers 57 (10), 1413-1422. https://doi.org/10.1109/TC.2008.79Tanaka, K., Ikeda, T., Wang, H. O., May 1998. Fuzzy regulators and fuzzy observers: relaxed stability conditions and lmi-based designs. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 6 (2), 250-265. https://doi.org/10.1109/91.66902

Requirements modelling and formal analysis using graph operations

The increasing complexity of enterprise systems requires a more advanced analysis of the representation of services expected than is currently possible. Consequently, the specification stage, which could be facilitated by formal verification, becomes very important to the system life-cycle. This paper presents a formal modelling approach, which may be used in order to better represent the reality of the system and to verify the awaited or existing system’s properties, taking into account the environmental characteristics. For that, we firstly propose a formalization process based upon properties specification, and secondly we use Conceptual Graphs operations to develop reasoning mechanisms of verifying requirements statements. The graphic visualization of these reasoning enables us to correctly capture the system specifications by making it easier to determine if desired properties hold. It is applied to the field of Enterprise modelling

Clinical Study Determinants of Thyrotoxic Cardiomyopathy Recovery

The purpose was to evaluate the effect of the disease duration prior to treatment, thyroid hormones level, or both on the reversibility of dilated cardiomyopathy. Between January 2006 and December 2010, a longitudinal study with a 6 months follow-up was carried on. One hundred and seventy patients with hyperthyroidism were referred to the cardiologist, and 127 had a 6 months followup after antithyroid treatment and were evaluated by echocardiography. Dilated cardiomyopathy reversibility criteria were established according to echocardiographic parameters. Complete reversibility existed when all parameters were met, partial reversibility when LVEF was ≥55% plus two or three other parameters, and no reversibility when LVEF was ≤55% regardless of other parameters. The results showed that echocardiography parameters related to the regression of myocardial mass were associated with a disease duration shorter than 10.38 months. This was the main predictive variable for reversal of dilated cardiomyopathy, followed byblocker treatment, and the last predictive variable was the serum level of free triiodothyronine. This study showed that the effect on the myocardium related to thyrotoxicosis was associated with the disease duration before treatment

Knowledge formalization in experience feedback processes : an ontology-based approach

Because of the current trend of integration and interoperability of industrial systems, their size and complexity continue to grow making it more difficult to analyze, to understand and to solve the problems that happen in their organizations. Continuous improvement methodologies are powerful tools in order to understand and to solve problems, to control the effects of changes and finally to capitalize knowledge about changes and improvements. These tools involve suitably represent knowledge relating to the concerned system. Consequently, knowledge management (KM) is an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for organizations. Particularly, the capitalization and sharing of knowledge resulting from experience feedback are elements which play an essential role in the continuous improvement of industrial activities. In this paper, the contribution deals with semantic interoperability and relates to the structuring and the formalization of an experience feedback (EF) process aiming at transforming information or understanding gained by experience into explicit knowledge. The reuse of such knowledge has proved to have significant impact on achieving themissions of companies. However, the means of describing the knowledge objects of an experience generally remain informal. Based on an experience feedback process model and conceptual graphs, this paper takes domain ontology as a framework for the clarification of explicit knowledge and know-how, the aim of which is to get lessons learned descriptions that are significant, correct and applicable

Three year trends from NARMS-EB, 1997-1999: A comparison of AR in Salmonella isolated from swine

The development of antimicrobial resistance (AR) has become a global problem. The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System - Enteric Bacteria (NARMS-EB) was established in 1996 in the United States to provide descriptive data on the extent and temporal trends of antimicrobial susceptibility in zoonotic enteric pathogens from human and animal populations. Salmonella isolates of animal origin were tested using Sensititre™ (TREK Diagnostics, Westlake, OH) custom designed microtiter plates to determine minimum inhibitory concentrations to 17 antimicrobials

Prevalence of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 and Related Phage Types from NARMS-EB, 1997-2000

While antimicrobial resistance is recognized as a global problem, multiple resistances are occurring more frequently. In the mid-1990s a pentaresistant S. typhimurium Definitive Type 104 (DT104) reached epidemic proportions in the United Kingdom in both humans and animals