Determinants of late neonatal nosocomial infection: a case-control study in Ceará

OBJETIVO Identificar os fatores determinantes para infecções relacionadas à assistência à saúde (IRAS) tardias em terapia intensiva neonatal e multirresistência bacteriana. MÉTODOS Estudo caso-controle em unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal do Estado do Ceará, entre janeiro de 2013 e dezembro de 2017. Considerado caso o recém-nascido notificado como IRAS tardia e, controle, aquele sem infecção. Variáveis com valor de p ≤ 0,05 em análise regressiva bivariada inicial foram incluídas em modelo logístico hierarquizado não condicional para análise multivariada. Valores de p menores que 0,01 foram considerados significativos. RESULTADOS Dos 1.132 participantes, 427 (37,7%) tiveram infecções tardias relacionadas a assistência à saúde, com 54 (12,6%) hemoculturas positivas e 14,9% dessas foram bactérias multirresistentes. Na análise bivariada observou-se efeito protetor do sexo feminino (OR = 0,71; IC95% 0,56–0,90) e recém-nascido ≥ 34 semanas (OR = 0,48; IC95% 0,30–0,75). Nos mais prematuros, as infecções tardias tiveram chance dezoito vezes maior em menores do que 30 semanas (OR = 18,61; IC95% 9,84–35,22); e nos menores de 1.500g, quatro vezes maior (OR = 4,18; IC95% 3,12–5,61). O uso de ventilação mecânica aumentou em mais de sete vezes a chance (OR = 7,14; IC95% 5,26–9,09); o mesmo aconteceu com o recurso da nutrição parenteral (OR = 5,88; IC95% 4,54–7,69), com o cateter venoso central (OR = 10,00; IC95% 6,66–16,66); o número de cateteres utilizado (OR = 3,93; IC95% 3,02–5,12); a realização de cirurgia (OR = 4,00; IC95% 2,27–7,14) e o tempo de internamento (OR = 1,06; IC95% 1,05–1,07). Permaneceram significativos após ajuste: prematuro menor do que 30 semanas (OR = 5,62; IC95% 1,83–17,28); uso de ventilação (OR = 1,84; IC95% 1,26–2,68); uso de cateter venoso central (OR = 2,48; IC95% 1,40–4,37) e tempo de internamento (OR = 1,06; IC95% 1,05–1,07). Dentre os óbitos, 41 (55,4%) foram associados às infecções tardias. CONCLUSÃO Melhores práticas devem ser adotadas no cuidado da prematuridade e o uso racional de procedimentos, para evitar infecções tardias relacionadas a assistência à saúde, óbitos preveníveis e riscos de multirresistência bacteriana e contaminação ambiental.OBJECTIVES To assess the determining factors of late healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) and bacterial multiple drug resistance in neonatal intensive care. METHODS This is a case-control study, conducted between January 2013 and December 2017, in a neonatal intensive care unit in the state of Ceará, Brazil. Newborns showing late HAIs were considered cases and those without infection, the control. Variables with p-values ≤ 0.05 in our initial bivariate regressive analysis were included in a non-conditional hierarchical logistic model for multivariate analysis. P-values below 0.01 were considered significant. RESULTS Of the 1,132 participants, 427 (37.7%) showed late healthcare-associated infections. Of these, 54 (12.6%), positive blood cultures, of which 14.9% contained multidrug-resistant bacteria. Bivariate analysis showed the protective effect of the feminine phenotype (OR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.56–0.90) and of gestational ages ≥ 34 weeks (OR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.30–0.75). In earlier-born preterm infants, late infections were 18 times more likely in those with less than 30 week-gestations (OR = 18.61; 95%CI: 9.84–35.22) and four times higher in those weighing less than 1,500 g (OR = 4.18; 95%CI: 3.12–5.61). Mechanical ventilation increased infection odds by more than seven times (OR = 7.14; 95%CI: 5.26–9.09); as did parenteral nutrition (OR = 5.88; 95%CI: 4.54–7.69); central venous catheters (OR = 10.00; 95%CI: 6.66–16.66); the number of catheters used (OR = 3.93; 95%CI: 3.02–5.12); surgery (OR = 4.00; 95%CI: 2.27–7.14); and hospitalization time (OR = 1.06; 95%CI: 1.05–1.07). The association between preterm infants with less than 30 week-gestations (OR = 5.62; 95%CI: 1.83–17.28); mechanical ventilation (OR = 1.84; 95%CI: 1.26–2.68); central venous catheters (OR = 2.48; 95%CI: 1.40–4.37); and hospitalization time (OR = 1.06; 95%CI: 1.05–1.07) remained significant after adjustment. Among deaths, 41 (55.4%) were associated with late infections. CONCLUSION Better practices should be adopted in caring for the premature, as well as in the rational use of procedures, to avoid late healthcare-associated infections, preventable deaths, and risks of bacterial multiple drug resistance and environmental contamination

Hypertension and arterial stiffness in heart transplantation patients

OBJECTIVES: Post-transplantation hypertension is prevalent and is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and subsequent graft dysfunction. The present study aimed to identify the factors associated with arterial stiffness as measured by the ambulatory arterial stiffness index. METHODS: The current study used a prospective, observational, analytical design to evaluate a group of adult heart transplantation patients. Arterial stiffness was obtained by monitoring ambulatory blood pressure and using the ambulatory arterial stiffness index as the surrogate outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to control confounding. RESULTS: In a group of 85 adult heart transplantation patients, hypertension was independently associated with arterial stiffness (OR 4.98, CI 95% 1.06-23.4) as well as systolic and diastolic blood pressure averages and nighttime descent. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of ambulatory arterial stiffness index is a new, non-invasive method that is easy to perform, may contribute to better defining arterial stiffness prognosis and is associated with hypertension

Methodology of Maternal and Child Health Populational Surveys: A Statewide Cross-sectional Time Series Carried Out in Ceará, Brazil, from 1987 to 2017, with Pooled Data Analysis for Child Stunting

Background: Cross-sectional studies are fundamental studies in the practice of epidemiological science. This article aims to present in detail the methodology for conducting a series of cross-sectional studies, as well as the analysis of data through pooled data. Methods: The series of studies are population cross-sectional studies, with statewide coverage, searching for representative sample of reproductive aged women and pre-school children in Ceará, Brazil. The sampling plan followed simple random, stratified, systematic and by conglomerates, in sequence. About 300 variables were collected. For each of the individual studies, multivariate data analysis was used to verify associations between dependent variables. For all the studies together, techniques used were trend chi-squared and pooled data analysis using linear mixed modeling procedures. Results: There were 6 studies in sequence, for 30 years. Among other findings, the variables income, maternal education and breastfeeding time proved to be associated with the reduction of malnutrition in children considering all the period (p values 0.013, 0.033 and 0.037, respectively). Conclusions: Cross-sectional studies can be replicated at regular time series following the methodology exposed in this, even for locations with limited resources, ensuring adequate management of decisions of using federal funding aimed at achieving targeted programs to maximize the results obtained with the public resource available

Prevalence and determinants of child undernutrition and stunting in semiarid region of Brazil

OBJETIVO : Analisar tendências na prevalência e determinantes da desnutrição em crianças na região semiárida do Brasil. MÉTODOS : Foram analisados dados de duas pesquisas transversais domiciliares de base populacional que utilizaram a mesma metodologia. A amostragem por conglomerados foi utilizada para coletar os dados de 8.000 famílias, do estado do Ceará, Nordeste do Brasil, para os anos de 1987 e 2007. A desnutrição aguda foi calculada como peso/idade < -2 desvios padrão; nanismo como altura/idade < -2 desvios padrão; e emaciação como peso/altura < -2 desvios padrão. Os dados sobre os determinantes biológicos e sociodemográficos foram analisados por meio de análises multivariadas com base em um modelo teórico hierarquizado. RESULTADOS : Amostras de 4.513 e 1.533 crianças menores de três anos de idade, em 1987 e 2007, respectivamente, foram incluídas nas análises. A prevalência de desnutrição aguda foi reduzida em 60,0%, passando de 12,6% em 1987, para 4,7% em 2007, enquanto a prevalência de nanismo foi reduzida em 50,0%, passando de 27,0% em 1987 para 13,0% em 2007. A prevalência de emaciação teve pouca alteração no período. Em 1987, as características socioeconômicas e biológicas (renda familiar, escolaridade da mãe, disponibilidade de latrina e água potável, consulta médica e hospitalização da criança, idade, sexo e peso ao nascer) foram fatores significativamente associados à desnutrição, ao nanismo e à emaciação. Em 2007, os determinantes da desnutrição ficaram restritos às características biológicas (idade, sexo e peso ao nascer). Apenas uma característica socioeconômica, a disponibilidade de latrina, permaneceu significantemente associada ao nanismo. CONCLUSÕES : O desenvolvimento socioeconômico, além de intervenções de saúde, parecem ter efetivamente contribuído para a melhoria do estado nutricional das crianças. Peso ao nascer, especialmente o peso extremamente baixo (< 1.500 g), aparece como o fator de risco mais importante para a desnutrição na primeira infância.OBJECTIVE : To analyze the evolution in the prevalence and determinants of malnutrition in children in the semiarid region of Brazil. METHODS : Data were collected from two cross-sectional population-based household surveys that used the same methodology. Clustering sampling was used to collect data from 8,000 families in Ceará, Northeastern Brazil, for the years 1987 and 2007. Acute undernutrition was calculated as weight/age < -2 standard deviation (SD); stunting as height/age < -2 SD; wasting as weight/height < -2 SD. Data on biological and sociodemographic determinants were analyzed using hierarchical multivariate analyses based on a theoretical model. RESULTS : A sample of 4,513 and 1,533 children under three years of age, in 1987 and 2007, respectively, were included in the analyses. The prevalence of acute malnutrition was reduced by 60.0%, from 12.6% in 1987 to 4.7% in 2007, while prevalence of stunting was reduced by 50.0%, from 27.0% in 1987 to 13.0% in 2007. Prevalence of wasting changed little in the period. In 1987, socioeconomic and biological characteristics (family income, mother’s education, toilet and tap water availability, children’s medical consultation and hospitalization, age, sex and birth weight) were significantly associated with undernutrition, stunting and wasting. In 2007, the determinants of malnutrition were restricted to biological characteristics (age, sex and birth weight). Only one socioeconomic characteristic, toilet availability, remained associated with stunting. CONCLUSIONS : Socioeconomic development, along with health interventions, may have contributed to improvements in children’s nutritional status. Birth weight, especially extremely low weight (< 1,500 g), appears as the most important risk factor for early childhood malnutrition.OBJETIVO : Objetivo: Analizar tendencias en la prevalencia y determinantes de la desnutrición en niños en la región semiárida de Brasil. MÉTODOS : Se analizaron datos de dos investigaciones transversales domiciliares de base poblacional que utilizaron la misma metodología. El muestreo por conglomerados se utilizó para colectar los datos de 8.000 familias, del estado de Ceará, Noreste de Brasil, para los años de 1987 y 2007. La desnutrición aguda fue calculada como peso/edad < -2 desviaciones estándar; enanismo como altura/edad < -2 desviaciones estándar; y demacración como peso/altura < -2 desviaciones estándar. Los datos sobre los determinantes biológicos y sociodemográficos se analizaron por medio de análisis multivariados con base en un modelo teórico jerarquizado. RESULTADOS : Muestras de 4.513 y 1.533 niños menores de tres años de edad, en 1987 y 2007, respectivamente, se incluyeron en los análisis. La prevalencia de desnutrición aguda fue reducida en 60,0%, pasando de 12,6% en 1987, a 4,7% en 2007, mientras que la prevalencia del enanismo fue reducida en 50,0% pasando de 27,0% en 1987 a 13,0% en 2007. La prevalencia de demacración tuvo poca alteración en el período. En 1987, las características socioeconómicas y biológicas (renta familiar, escolaridad de la madre, disponibilidad de letrina y agua potable, consulta médica y hospitalización del niño, edad, sexo y peso al nacer) fueron factores significativamente asociados con la desnutrición, el nanismo y la demacración. En 2007, los determinantes de la desnutrición quedaron restringidos a las características biológicas (edad, sexo y peso al nacer). Sólo una característica socioeconómica, la disponibilidad de letrina, permaneció significativamente asociada con el enanismo. CONCLUSIONES : El desarrollo socioeconómico, así como las intervenciones de salud, parecen haber contribuido efectivamente en la mejoría del estado nutricional de los niños. Peso al nacer, especialmente el peso extremadamente bajo

COVID-19 and mental health of pregnant women in Ceará, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To assess the perceptions of pregnant women about COVID-19 and the prevalence of common mental disorders during the implemented social distancing period. METHODS This was an observational, cross-sectional study using digital media, of pregnant women exposed to social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in Fortaleza, Ceará, Northeastern Brazil. Common mental disorders were estimated using the modified Self-Report Questionnaire-20 (SRQ-20) scale, and the feelings towards COVID-19 were assessed using the Fear of COVID-19 scale through telephone calls made in May 2020. COX multivariate regression models were used to verify the associations. RESULTS Of the 1,041 pregnant women, 45.7% (95%CI: 42.7–48.8) had common mental disorders (CMD). All items of the Fear of COVID-19 Scale showed a significant association with the prevalence of CMD (p &lt; 0.001). A CMD risk gradient was observed, going from a prevalence ratio of 1.52 (95%CI: 1.13–2.04) in pregnant women with two positive items to 2.70 (95%CI: 2.08–3.51) for those with four positive items. Early gestational age and the lack of prenatal care were also associated with CMD. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of common mental disorders in pregnant women was high during the period of social distancing and was aggravated by negative feelings towards COVID-19

Tipo de vínculo de trabalho x absenteísmo por Covid-19 de trabalhadores da saúde de Hospital Terciário, Ceará, Brasil

Avaliamos a associação entre vínculo empregatício e absenteísmo por COVID-19, de colaboradores de um hospital terciário no Ceará. Este estudo, transversal analítico, avaliou fatores ocupacionais, clínico-laboratoriais e epidemiológicos de 368 colaboradores de todas as categorias, suspeitos ou confirmados para COVID-19. Observou-se que os trabalhadores com vínculo de servidor público (estável) tiveram mais dias de afastamento por COVID-19 (média 21,2 dias) que os colaboradores com vínculo eventual, com média de 14 dias de afastamento (p&lt;0,001). A pandemia de COVID-19 evidenciou o quanto o vínculo empregatício precário pode promover retorno antecipado ao trabalho de trabalhadores ainda doentes

Covid-19: monitoring of patients’ laboratory data during a 90-day length of hospital stay: Covid-19: acompanhamento de dados laboratoriais de pacientes durante 90 dias de internação

Background: In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. In this study, patients were selected through the chest HRCT diagnosis. Laboratory tests such as blood count, fibrinogen, D-dimer, AST, ALT, troponin, LDH, albumin, CRP, electrolytes and ferritin were analyzed. Aims: To monitor the laboratory evolution of COVID-19 in patients during hospitalization. Method: Of 115 patients, 93 were selected and analyzed every three days for 90 days. Data were analyzed using the IBM, SPSS, Statistics for Windows, 23.0 software. Results: 34.4% were female, and 65.6% male; Hct and Hb dropped after the 13th day of hospitalization; leukocyte levels remained up to 15,000, increasing to &gt;20,000 after the 55th day of hospitalization; lymphopenia occurred in 10 to 15% of the patients, with increased eosinophils; platelet levels decreased at the end of hospitalization. Fibrinogen, D-dimer, LDH, CRP and ferritin levels increased throughout the hospitalization period. Urea and creatinine increased slightly from the 30th day onwards. There were no alterations in PTA, troponin, chlorine, potassium and albumin levels, with a decrease throughout the hospitalization period. Conclusion: Knowledge of the behavior of laboratory tests together with the disease evolution give support to the clinical and therapeutic management of COVID-19

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions