Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil

Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided by a model of the long-term price of oil and its dynamics. Data on futures prices can be used to filter out the short-term volatility and recover a time series of the latent, long-term price of oil. We test a leading model known as the 2-factor or short-term, long-term model. While the generated latent price variable is clearly an improvement over the raw spot oil price series, we also find that (1) the generated long-term price series still contains some of the short-term volatility, and (2) a naïve use of a long-maturity futures price as a proxy for the long-term price successfully filters out a large majority of the short-term volatility and so may be convenient alternative to the more cumbersome model

Postpyloric enteral nutrition in the critically ill child with shock: a prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tolerance to enteral nutrition in the critically ill child with shock has not been studied. The purpose of the study was to analyze the characteristics of enteral nutrition and its tolerance in the critically ill child with shock and to compare this with non-shocked patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective, observational study was performed including critically ill children with shock who received postpyloric enteral nutrition (PEN). The type of nutrition used, its duration, tolerance, and gastrointestinal complications were assessed. The 65 children with shock who received PEN were compared with 461 non-shocked critically ill children who received PEN.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-five critically ill children with shock, aged between 21 days and 22 years, received PEN. 75.4% of patients with shock received PEN exclusively. The mean duration of the PEN was 25.2 days and the maximum calorie intake was 79.4 kcal/kg/day. Twenty patients with shock (30.7%) presented gastrointestinal complications, 10 (15.4%) abdominal distension and/or excessive gastric residue, 13 (20%) diarrhoea, 1 necrotising enterocolitis, and 1 duodenal perforation due to the postpyloric tube. The frequency of gastrointestinal complications was significantly higher than in the other 461 critically ill children (9.1%). PEN was suspended due to gastrointestinal complications in 6 patients with shock (9.2%). There were 18 deaths among the patients with shock and PEN (27.7%). In only one patient was the death related to complications of the nutrition.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although most critically ill children with shock can tolerate postpyloric enteral nutrition, the incidence of gastrointestinal complications is higher in this group of patients than in other critically ill children.</p

Community-facility linkage models and maternal and infant health outcomes in Malawi’s PMTCT/ART program: a cohort study

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, 3 community-facility linkage (CFL) models—Expert Clients, Community Health Workers (CHWs), and Mentor Mothers—have been widely implemented to support pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBFW) living with HIV and their infants to access and sustain care for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), yet their comparative impact under real-world conditions is poorly understood. Methods and findings: We sought to estimate the effects of CFL models on a primary outcome of maternal loss to follow-up (LTFU), and secondary outcomes of maternal longitudinal viral suppression and infant “poor outcome” (encompassing documented HIV-positive test result, LTFU, or death), in Malawi’s PMTCT/ART program. We sampled 30 of 42 high-volume health facilities (“sites”) in 5 Malawi districts for study inclusion. At each site, we reviewed medical records for all newly HIV-diagnosed PBFW entering the PMTCT program between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, and, for pregnancies resulting in live births, their HIV-exposed infants, yielding 2,589 potentially eligible mother–infant pairs. Of these, 2,049 (79.1%) had an available HIV treatment record and formed the study cohort. A randomly selected subset of 817 (40.0%) cohort members underwent a field survey, consisting of a questionnaire and HIV biomarker assessment. Survey responses and biomarker results were used to impute CFL model exposure, maternal viral load, and early infant diagnosis (EID) outcomes for those missing these measures to enrich data in the larger cohort. We applied sampling weights in all statistical analyses to account for the differing proportions of facilities sampled by district. Of the 2,049 mother–infant pairs analyzed, 62.2% enrolled in PMTCT at a primary health center, at which time 43.7% of PBFW were ≤24 years old, and 778 (38.0%) received the Expert Client model, 640 (31.2%) the CHW model, 345 (16.8%) the Mentor Mother model, 192 (9.4%) ≥2 models, and 94 (4.6%) no model. Maternal LTFU varied by model, with LTFU being more likely among Mentor Mother model recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14, 1.84; p = 0.003) than Expert Client recipients. Over 2 years from HIV diagnosis, PBFW supported by CHWs spent 14.3% (95% CI: 2.6%, 26.1%; p = 0.02) more days in an optimal state of antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention with viral suppression than women supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the Mentor Mother model (aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.52; p = 0.04) and ≥2 models (aHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.74; p < 0.001) were more likely to undergo EID testing by age 6 months than infants supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the CHW and Mentor Mother models were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.67; p = 0.44) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.42; p = 0.51) times as likely, respectively, to experience a poor outcome by 1 year than those supported by Expert Clients, but not significantly so. Study limitations include possible residual confounding, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions about the impacts of CFL models, uncertain generalizability of findings to other settings, and missing infant medical record data that limited the precision of infant outcome measurement. Conclusions: In this descriptive study, we observed widespread reach of CFL models in Malawi, with favorable maternal outcomes in the CHW model and greater infant EID testing uptake in the Mentor Mother model. Our findings point to important differences in maternal and infant HIV outcomes by CFL model along the PMTCT continuum and suggest future opportunities to identify key features of CFL models driving these outcome differences

A Two-stage Approach for Rapid Assessment of the Proportion Achieving Viral Suppression Using Routine Clinical Data

Background: Improving viral suppression among people with HIV reduces morbidity, mortality, and transmission. Accordingly, monitoring the proportion of patients with a suppressed viral load is important to optimizing HIV care and treatment programs. But viral load data are often incomplete in clinical records. We illustrate a two-stage approach to estimate the proportion of treated people with HIV who have a suppressed viral load in the Dominican Republic. Methods: Routinely collected data on viral load and patient characteristics were recorded in a national database, but 74% of patients on treatment at the time of the study did not have a recent viral load measurement. We recruited a subset of these patients for a rapid assessment that obtained additional viral load measurements. We combined results from the rapid assessment and main database using a two-stage weighting approach and compared results to estimates obtained using standard approaches to account for missing data. Results: Of patients with recent routinely collected viral load data, 60% had a suppressed viral load. Results were similar after applying standard approaches to account for missing data. Using the two-stage approach, we estimated that 77% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74, 80) of those on treatment had a suppressed viral load. Conclusions: When assessing the proportion of people on treatment with a suppressed viral load using routinely collected data, applying standard approaches to handle missing data may be inadequate. In these settings, augmenting routinely collected data with data collected through sampling-based approaches could allow more accurate and efficient monitoring of HIV treatment program effectiveness

Backbone rigidity and static presentation of guanidinium groups increases cellular uptake of arginine-rich cell-penetrating peptides

In addition to endocytosis-mediated cellular uptake, hydrophilic cell-penetrating peptides are able to traverse biological membranes in a non-endocytic mode termed transduction, resulting in immediate bioavailability. Here we analysed structural requirements for the non-endocytic uptake mode of arginine-rich cell-penetrating peptides, by a combination of live-cell microscopy, molecular dynamics simulations and analytical ultracentrifugation. We demonstrate that the transduction efficiency of arginine-rich peptides increases with higher peptide structural rigidity. Consequently, cyclic arginine-rich cell-penetrating peptides showed enhanced cellular uptake kinetics relative to their linear and more flexible counterpart. We propose that guanidinium groups are forced into maximally distant positions by cyclization. This orientation increases membrane contacts leading to enhanced cell penetration

Robust averaging protects decisions from noise in neural computations

An ideal observer will give equivalent weight to sources of information that are equally reliable. However, when averaging visual information, human observers tend to downweight or discount features that are relatively outlying or deviant (‘robust averaging’). Why humans adopt an integration policy that discards important decision information remains unknown. Here, observers were asked to judge the average tilt in a circular array of high-contrast gratings, relative to an orientation boundary defined by a central reference grating. Observers showed robust averaging of orientation, but the extent to which they did so was a positive predictor of their overall performance. Using computational simulations, we show that although robust averaging is suboptimal for a perfect integrator, it paradoxically enhances performance in the presence of “late” noise, i.e. which corrupts decisions during integration. In other words, robust decision strategies increase the brain’s resilience to noise arising in neural computations during decision-making

Empty Urbanism: the bursting of the Spanish housing bubble

The depth of the Spanish housing crisis manifests itself in the collapse of construction activity and in the amount of housing and land stocks. The geography of the crisis shows its widespread nature, and the intensity of the previous bubble explains spatial differences. Resulting from this collapse are some problematic areas of 'empty urbanism'. An enormous land bubble, emerging from the peculiar Spanish urban development model, was a key factor in the impacts - caused by the crisis - on the territory and land-use plans. The crisis has demonstrated the unsustainability of this and the urgency of change in the existing land-use plans

Conjugation to the Cell-Penetrating Peptide TAT Potentiates the Photodynamic Effect of Carboxytetramethylrhodamine

Cell-penetrating peptides (CPPs) can transport macromolecular cargos into live cells. However, the cellular delivery efficiency of these reagents is often suboptimal because CPP-cargo conjugates typically remain trapped inside endosomes. Interestingly, irradiation of fluorescently labeled CPPs with light increases the release of the peptide and its cargos into the cytosol. However, the mechanism of this phenomenon is not clear. Here we investigate the molecular basis of the photo-induced endosomolytic activity of the prototypical CPPs TAT labeled to the fluorophore 5(6)-carboxytetramethylrhodamine (TMR).We report that TMR-TAT acts as a photosensitizer that can destroy membranes. TMR-TAT escapes from endosomes after exposure to moderate light doses. However, this is also accompanied by loss of plasma membrane integrity, membrane blebbing, and cell-death. In addition, the peptide causes the destruction of cells when applied extracellularly and also triggers the photohemolysis of red blood cells. These photolytic and photocytotoxic effects were inhibited by hydrophobic singlet oxygen quenchers but not by hydrophilic quenchers.Together, these results suggest that TAT can convert an innocuous fluorophore such as TMR into a potent photolytic agent. This effect involves the targeting of the fluorophore to cellular membranes and the production of singlet oxygen within the hydrophobic environment of the membranes. Our findings may be relevant for the design of reagents with photo-induced endosomolytic activity. The photocytotoxicity exhibited by TMR-TAT also suggests that CPP-chromophore conjugates could aid the development of novel Photodynamic Therapy agents

Severe manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 in children and adolescents: from COVID-19 pneumonia to multisystem inflammatory syndrome: a multicentre study in pediatric intensive care units in Spain

Background Multisystem inflammatory syndrome temporally associated with COVID-19 (MIS-C) has been described as a novel and often severe presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. We aimed to describe the characteristics of children admitted to Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) presenting with MIS-C in comparison with those admitted with SARS-CoV-2 infection with other features such as COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods A multicentric prospective national registry including 47 PICUs was carried out. Data from children admitted with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or fulfilling MIS-C criteria (with or without SARS-CoV-2 PCR confirmation) were collected. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic features between MIS-C and non-MIS-C patients were compared. Results Seventy-four children were recruited. Sixty-one percent met MIS-C definition. MIS-C patients were older than non-MIS-C patients (p = 0.002): 9.4 years (IQR 5.5–11.8) vs 3.4 years (IQR 0.4–9.4). A higher proportion of them had no previous medical history of interest (88.2% vs 51.7%, p = 0.005). Non-MIS-C patients presented more frequently with respiratory distress (60.7% vs 13.3%, p < 0.001). MIS-C patients showed higher prevalence of fever (95.6% vs 64.3%, p < 0.001), diarrhea (66.7% vs 11.5%, p < 0.001), vomits (71.1% vs 23.1%, p = 0.001), fatigue (65.9% vs 36%, p = 0.016), shock (84.4% vs 13.8%, p < 0.001) and cardiac dysfunction (53.3% vs 10.3%, p = 0.001). MIS-C group had a lower lymphocyte count (p < 0.001) and LDH (p = 0.001) but higher neutrophil count (p = 0.045), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (p < 0.001), C-reactive protein (p < 0.001) and procalcitonin (p < 0.001). Patients in the MIS-C group were less likely to receive invasive ventilation (13.3% vs 41.4%, p = 0.005) but were more often treated with vasoactive drugs (66.7% vs 24.1%, p < 0.001), corticosteroids (80% vs 44.8%, p = 0.003) and immunoglobulins (51.1% vs 6.9%, p < 0.001). Most patients were discharged from PICU by the end of data collection with a median length of stay of 5 days (IQR 2.5–8 days) in the MIS-C group. Three patients died, none of them belonged to the MIS-C group. Conclusions MIS-C seems to be the most frequent presentation among critically ill children with SARS-CoV-2 infection. MIS-C patients are older and usually healthy. They show a higher prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms and shock and are more likely to receive vasoactive drugs and immunomodulators and less likely to need mechanical ventilation than non-MIS-C patients