Limitations of Nonfinancial Metrics Reported by Social Media Companies

Publicly traded companies in the U.S. are required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to file annual and quarterly financial statements (form 10-K and form 10-Q respectively). The Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of these reports, as per SEC requirements, should include the identification and discussion of nonfinancial performance metrics that are critical to management and important to investors. This paper examines a set of common nonfinancial metrics reported by some well-known social media companies. These metrics include such quantities as number of registered users, monthly average users, and number of unique visitors. The definition and use of metrics such as these have gained increased importance as the recent stratospheric market valuations of a number of social media companies seem to be supported by them, as opposed to more traditional measures, such as profitability. This paper points to a number of limitations of these reported metrics, including that: What a metric actually measures may lie in the details of how it’s calculated; that is, relying on the name of the metric to indicate its meaning may be an error. Many of the metrics reported are inexact but the companies reporting them do not specify ranges of uncertainty around these point estimates. Important nonfinancial metrics (e.g., user demographics and customer churn rates) may simply not be reported at all. Typically, corporate nonfinancial metrics are not audited as is financial data. The contribution of this paper is in providing investors and other interested parties with a better understanding of the meaning and limitations of nonfinancial metrics reported by social media companies. Further, in highlighting some problematic issues in the current reporting of these nonfinancial metrics, we hope to raise interest in improving MD&A reporting standards

Ethical trust and social moral norms simulation : a bio-inspired agent-based modelling approach

The understanding of the micro-macro link is an urgent need in the study of social systems. The complex adaptive nature of social systems adds to the challenges of understanding social interactions and system feedback and presents substantial scope and potential for extending the frontiers of computer-based research tools such as simulations and agent-based technologies. In this project, we seek to understand key research questions concerning the interplay of ethical trust at the individual level and the development of collective social moral norms as representative sample of the bigger micro-macro link of social systems. We outline our computational model of ethical trust (CMET) informed by research findings from trust, machine ethics and neural science. Guided by the CMET architecture, we discuss key implementation ideas for the simulations of ethical trust and social moral norms

The feasibility of posture and movement detection by accelerometry

The discrimination of postures and movements using a minimal set of uniaxial accelerometers was investigated. Postures and movements were distinguished on the bitsis of the high-pm filtered, rectified and low pass filtered signal of one accelerometer. Postures were discriminated by combining the constant valued signals of the accelerometers, mounted on different segments of the body. One sensor mounted ndiully on the trunc and one mounted radially or tangentially on the upper leg appeared to be suficient to discriminate shnding, sitting and lying. Methods are proposed for the discrimination of different cyclical movements

Magnetic Field Measurement on the C/NOFS Satellite: Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Low Latitude Ionosphere

The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) suite onboard the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) spacecraft includes a sensitive fluxgate magnetometer to measure DC and ULF magnetic fields in the low latitude ionosphere. The instrument includes a DC vector measurement at 1 sample/sec with a range of +/- 45,000 nT whose primary objective is to provide direct measurements of both V x B and E x B that are more accurate than those obtained using a simple magnetic field model. These data can also be used for scientific research to provide information of large-scale ionospheric and magnetospheric current systems, which, when analyzed in conjunction with the C/NOFS DC electric field measurements, promise to advance our understanding of the electrodynamics of the low latitude ionosphere. In this study, we use the magnetic field data to study the temporal and local time variations of the ring currents during geomagnetic storms. We first compare the in situ measurements with the POMME (the POtsdam Magnetic Model of the Earth) model in order to provide an in-flight "calibration" of the data as well as compute magnetic field residuals essential for revealing large scale external current systems. We then compare the magnetic field residuals observed both during quiet times and during geomagnetic storms at the same geographic locations to deduce the magnetic field signatures of the ring current. As will be shown, the low inclination of the C/NOFS satellite provides a unique opportunity to study the evolution of the ring current as a function of local time, which is particularly insightful during periods of magnetic storms. This paper will present the initial results of this study

A new trial design to accelerate tuberculosis drug development : the Phase IIC Selection Trial with Extended Post-treatment follow-up (STEP)

The PanACEA consortium was funded by the European Developing Country Partnership through grants IP.2007.32011.011, IP.2007.32011.012, and IP.2007.32011.013. PN is supported by the NIAID of the National Institutes of Health (R01AI104589) and the TBTC. KED is supported by NIAID/NID (R01AI111992) and the TBTC.Background The standard 6-month four-drug regimen for the treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis has remained unchanged for decades and is inadequate to control the epidemic. Shorter, simpler regimens are urgently needed to defeat what is now the world’s greatest infectious disease killer. Methods We describe the Phase IIC Selection Trial with Extended Post-treatment follow-up (STEP) as a novel hybrid phase II/III trial design to accelerate regimen development. In the Phase IIC STEP trial, the experimental regimen is given for the duration for which it will be studied in phase III (presently 3 or 4 months) and patients are followed for clinical outcomes of treatment failure and relapse for a total of 12 months from randomisation. Operating characteristics of the trial design are explored assuming a classical frequentist framework as well as a Bayesian framework with flat and sceptical priors. A simulation study is conducted using data from the RIFAQUIN phase III trial to illustrate how such a design could be used in practice. Results With 80 patients per arm, and two (2.5 %) unfavourable outcomes in the STEP trial, there is a probability of 0.99 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes in a potential phase III trial would be less than 12 % and a probability of 0.91 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes would be less than 8 %. With six (7.5 %) unfavourable outcomes, there is a probability of 0.82 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes in a potential phase III trial would be less than 12 % and a probability of 0.41 that it would be less than 8 %. Simulations using data from the RIFAQUIN trial show that a STEP trial with 80 patients per arm would have correctly shown that the Inferior Regimen should not proceed to phase III and would have had a high chance (0.88) of either showing that the Successful Regimen could proceed to phase III or that it might require further optimisation. Conclusions Collection of definitive clinical outcome data in a relatively small number of participants over only 12 months provides valuable information about the likelihood of success in a future phase III trial. We strongly believe that the STEP trial design described herein is an important tool that would allow for more informed decision-making and accelerate regimen development.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Towards a methodology for educational modelling: a case in educational assessment

Giesbers, B., van Bruggen, J., Hermans, H., Joosten-ten Brinke, D., Burgers, J., Koper, R., & Latour, I. (2007). Towards a methodology for educational modelling: a case in educational assessment. Educational Technology & Society, 10 (1), 237-247.Interoperability of an educational system requires a model of the system in question. Such a model is a framework that contains its important concepts, processes and relations. Several models have been published but their development, which we call educational modelling, still is a tedious process. We lack clear guidelines or a methodology. In this article we present a case study, in which we take first steps towards the development of a methodology for educational modelling. We do so by analysing our current practice that we typify as expert-driven, model-centred and consensus-based. We explicate the assumptions under this approach and test whether they are met in the case. The results give rise to a number of guidelines that can be used by future projects and that provide a first step towards a more systematic approach to educational modelling

The Canada-UK Deep Submillimetre Survey - VIII. Source identifications in the 3-hour field

We present optical, near-infrared (IR) and radio observations of the 3-hour field of the Canada-UK Deep Submillimetre Survey (CUDSS). Of the 27 submillimetre sources in the field, nine have secure identifications with either a radio source or a near-IR source. We show that the percentage of sources with secure identifications in the CUDSS is consistent with that found for the bright ‘8-mJy' submillimetre survey, once allowance is made for the different submillimetre and radio flux limits. Of the 14 secure identifications in the two CUDSS fields, eight are very red objects (VROs) or extremely red objects (EROs), five have colours typical of normal galaxies and one is a radio source that has not yet been detected at optical/near-IR wavelengths. 11 of the identifications have optical/near-IR structures which are either disturbed or have some peculiarity that suggests that the host galaxy is part of an interacting system. One difference between the CUDSS results and the results from the 8-mJy survey is the large number of low-redshift objects in the CUDSS. We give several arguments why these are genuine low-redshift submillimetre sources rather than being gravitational lenses that are gravitationally amplifying a high-z submillimetre source. We construct a K-z diagram for various classes of high-redshift galaxy and show that the SCUBA galaxies are on average less luminous than classical radio galaxies, but are very similar in both their optical/IR luminosities and their colours to the host galaxies of the radio sources detected in μJy radio survey