Evaluation of ‘GLAMEPS’—a proposed multimodel EPS for short range forecasting

Grand Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) is prepared for pan-European, short-range probabilistic numerical weather prediction of fine synoptic-scale, quasi-hydrostatic atmospheric flows. Four equally sized ensembles are combined: EuroTEPS, a version of the global ECMWF EPS with European target; AladEPS, a downscaling of EuroTEPS using the ALADIN model; HirEPS_K and HirEPS_S, two ensembles using the HIRLAM model nested into EuroTEPS including 3DVar data-assimilation for two control forecasts. A 52-member GLAMEPS thus samples forecast uncertainty by three analysed initial states combined with 12 singular vector-based perturbations, four different models and the stochastic physics tendencies in EuroTEPS. Over a 7-week test period in winter 2008, GLAMEPS produced better results than ECMWF’s EPS with 51 ensemble members. Apart from spatial resolution, the improvement is due to the multimodel combination and to a smaller extent the dedicated EuroTEPS. Ensemble resolution and reliability are both improved. Combining uncalibrated ensembles is seen to produce a better combined ensemble than the best single-model ensemble of the same size, except when one of the single-model ensembles is considerably better than the others. Bayesian Model Averaging improves reliability, but needs further elaboration to account for geographical variations. These conclusions need to be confirmed by long-period evaluations

On the economics of solar chemical processes - case study for solar co-production of methanol and power

In several studies, the efficiency of solarized industrial processes was assessed and showed promising results. However, the economic competitiveness of such processes is a mainly unanswered question. In this work, the economic performance of a solar aided methanol production process is determined. The assessment yields promising results for the considered co-production process. The presented results also show that for a penetration of renewable energies beyond electricity production, the common support model of fixed feed-in-tariffs is not suitable. A reasonable cost for CO2 emissions or reward for their reduction will allow finding the most economic application for renewable energies independent of the end product of the process. When reasonable rewards of 75 $/tCO2 for the reduction of CO2 emissions compared to fossil reference processes are considered, the process can produce methanol and electricity at competitive prices

GPS data recommendations for European Numerical Weather Prediction

Informe del proyecto TOUGH: Targeting Optimal Use of GPS Humidity Measurements in Meteorology.TOUGH is a shared cost project, co-funded by the Research DG of the European Commission, within the RTD activities of the Environment and Sustainable Development sub-programme, contract no EVG1-CT-2002-00080

Association of common genetic variants related to atrial fibrillation and the risk of ventricular fibrillation in the setting of first ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Background: Cohort studies have revealed an increased risk for ventricular fibrillation (VF) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). In this study, we hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) previously associated with AF may be associated with the risk of VF caused by first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods: We investigated association of 24 AF-associated SNPs with VF in the prospectively assembled case–control study among first STEMI-patients of Danish ancestry. Results: We included 257 cases (STEMI with VF) and 537 controls (STEMI without VF). The median age at index infarction was 60 years for the cases and 61 years for the controls (p = 0.100). Compared to the control group, the case group was more likely to be male (86% vs. 75%, p = 0.001), have a history of AF (7% vs. 2%, p = 0.006) or hypercholesterolemia (39% vs. 31%, p = 0.023), and a family history of sudden death (40% vs. 25%, p < 0.001). All 24 selected SNPs have previously been associated with AF. None of the 24 SNPs were associated with the risk of VF after adjustment for age and sex under additive genetic model of inheritance in the logistic regression model. Conclusion: In this study, we found that the 24 AF-associated SNPs may not be involved in increasing the risk of VF. Larger VF cohorts and use of new next generation sequencing and epigenetic may in future identify additional AF and VF risk loci and improve our understanding of genetic pathways behind the two arrhythmias

A Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

dentification of sequence variants robustly associated with predisposition to diabetic kidney disease (DKD) has the potential to provide insights into the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of DKD in type 2 diabetes (T2D) using eight complementary dichotomous and quantitative DKD phenotypes: the principal dichotomous analysis involved 5,717 T2D subjects, 3,345 with DKD. Promising association signals were evaluated in up to 26,827 subjects with T2D (12,710 with DKD). A combined T1D+T2D GWAS was performed using complementary data available for subjects with T1D, which, with replication samples, involved up to 40,340 subjects with diabetes (18,582 with DKD). Analysis of specific DKD phenotypes identified a novel signal near GABRR1 (rs9942471, P = 4.5 x 10(-8)) associated with microalbuminuria in European T2D case subjects. However, no replication of this signal was observed in Asian subjects with T2D or in the equivalent T1D analysis. There was only limited support, in this substantially enlarged analysis, for association at previously reported DKD signals, except for those at UMOD and PRKAG2, both associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate. We conclude that, despite challenges in addressing phenotypic heterogeneity, access to increased sample sizes will continue to provide more robust inference regarding risk variant discovery for DKD.Peer reviewe

Der Wert von Marken (brand equity)

Summary in EnglishAvailable from Bibliothek des Instituts fuer Weltwirtschaft, ZBW, Duesternbrook Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel W 351 (341) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Markenbewertung

Summary in EnglishSIGLEAvailable from Bibliothek des Instituts fuer Weltwirtschaft, ZBW, Duesternbrook Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel W 351 (349) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman