Prior Event Rate Ratio Adjustment for Hidden Confounding in Observational Studies of Treatment Effectiveness: A Pairwise Cox Likelihood Approach

Observational studies provide a rich source of information for assessing effectiveness of treatment interventions in many situations where it is not ethical or practical to perform randomized controlled trials. However, such studies are prone to bias from hidden (unmeasured) confounding. A promising approach to identifying and reducing the impact of unmeasured confounding is Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) adjustment, a quasi-experimental analytic method proposed in the context of electronic medical record database studies. In this paper we present a statistical framework for using a pairwise approach to PERR adjustment that removes bias inherent in the original PERR method. A flexible pairwise Cox likelihood function is derived and used to demonstrate the consistency of the simple and convenient PERR-ALT estimator. We show how to estimate standard errors and confidence intervals for treatment effect estimates based on the observed information, and provide R code to illustrate how to implement the method. Assumptions required for the pairwise approach (as well as PERR) are clarified, and the consequences of model misspecification are explored. Our results confirm the need for researchers to consider carefully the suitability of the method in the context of each problem. We illustrate the application of the method using data from a longitudinal cohort study of enzyme replacement therapy for lysosomal storage disorders.This research was funded by the Medical Research Council [grant number G0902158]. William Henley received additional support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Bias and sensitivity analysis when estimating treatment effects from the cox model with omitted covariates

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Omission of relevant covariates can lead to bias when estimating treatment or exposure effects from survival data in both randomized controlled trials and observational studies. This paper presents a general approach to assessing bias when covariates are omitted from the Cox model. The proposed method is applicable to both randomized and non-randomized studies. We distinguish between the effects of three possible sources of bias: omission of a balanced covariate, data censoring and unmeasured confounding. Asymptotic formulae for determining the bias are derived from the large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the bias formulae and to characterize the influence of the different sources of bias. It is shown that the bias converges to fixed limits as the effect of the omitted covariate increases, irrespective of the degree of confounding. The bias formulae are used as the basis for developing a new method of sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of omitted covariates on estimates of treatment or exposure effects. In simulation studies, the proposed method gave unbiased treatment estimates and confidence intervals with good coverage when the true sensitivity parameters were known. We describe application of the method to a randomized controlled trial and a non-randomized study.We thank Prof. Robin Henderson for providing the leukaemia and deprivation data. We are grateful for the helpful comments of the editor, associate editor and two referees. This research was funded by the Medical Research Council [grant number G0902158]. William Henley and Stuart Logan were supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Evidence from a quasi-experimental study for the effectiveness of the influenza vaccination against myocardial infarction in UK adults aged at least 65 y

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record Abstracts of the 34th International Conference on Pharmacoepidemiology & Therapeutic Risk Management, Prague Congress Centre, Prague, Czech Republic, August 22–26, 2018Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Real-world effectiveness of influenza vaccination in older adults in the UK from 1997-2012: A quasi-experimental cohort study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record Abstracts of the 34th International Conference on Pharmacoepidemiology & Therapeutic Risk Management, Prague Congress Centre, Prague, Czech Republic, August 22–26, 2018Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Inflammation predicts accelerated brachial arterial wall changes in patients with recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction Patients with recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have impaired brachial artery endothelial function compared with controls matched for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. The present study examined endothelium-dependent (flow-mediated dilatation (FMD)) and independent (glyceryl trinitrate (GTN)-mediated dilatation (GMD)) structural responses in early RA patients, and determined progress over one year

Physical activity attenuates the mid-adolescent peak in insulin resistance but by late adolescence the effect is lost: a longitudinal study with annual measures from 9–16 years (EarlyBird 66)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordthere is another ORE record for this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/18754Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this work was to test whether the mid-adolescent peak in insulin resistance (IR) and trends in other metabolic markers are influenced by long-term exposure to physical activity. Methods: Physical activity (7 day ActiGraph accelerometry), HOMA-IR and other metabolic markers (glucose, fasting insulin, HbA1c, lipids and BP) were measured annually from age 9 years to 16 years in 300 children (151 boys) from the EarlyBird study in Plymouth, UK. The activity level of each child was characterised, with 95% reliability, by averaging their eight annual physical activity measures. Age-related trends in IR and metabolic health were analysed by multi-level modelling, with physical activity as the exposure measure (categorical and continuous) and body fat percentage (assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and pubertal status (according to age at peak height velocity and Tanner stage) as covariates. Results: The peak in IR at age 12–13 years was 17% lower (p < 0.001) in the more active adolescents independently of body fat percentage and pubertal status. However, this difference diminished progressively over the next 3 years and had disappeared completely by the age of 16 years (e.g. difference was −14% at 14 years, −8% at 15 years and +1% at 16 years; ‘physical activity × age2’ interaction, p < 0.01). Triacylglycerol levels in girls (−9.7%, p = 0.05) and diastolic blood pressure in boys (−1.20 mmHg, p = 0.03) tended to be lower throughout adolescence in the more active group. Conclusions/interpretation: Our finding that physical activity attenuates IR during mid-adolescence may be clinically important. It remains to be established whether the temporary attenuation in IR during this period has implications for the development of diabetes in adolescence and for future metabolic health generally.The EarlyBird study (BSM, JH, MM, ANJ, LDV, TJW) was supported by the Bright Future Trust, the Kirby Laing Foundation, the Peninsula Foundation and the EarlyBird Diabetes Trust. WEH was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC)

Prior event rate ratio adjustment produced estimates consistent with randomized trial: a diabetes case study

Objectives: Electronic health records (EHR) provide a valuable resource for assessing drug side-effects, but treatments are not randomly allocated in routine care creating the potential for bias. We conduct a case study using the Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) Pairwise method to reduce unmeasured confounding bias in side-effect estimates for two second-line therapies for type 2 diabetes, thiazolidinediones, and sulfonylureas. Study design and settings: Primary care data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (n = 41,871). We utilized outcomes from the period when patients took first-line metformin to adjust for unmeasured confounding. Estimates for known side-effects and a negative control outcome were compared with the A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT) trial (n = 2,545). Results: When on metformin, patients later prescribed thiazolidinediones had greater risks of edema, HR 95% CI 1.38 (1.13, 1.68) and gastrointestinal side-effects (GI) 1.47 (1.28, 1.68), suggesting the presence of unmeasured confounding. Conventional Cox regression overestimated the risk of edema on thiazolidinediones and identified a false association with GI. The PERR Pairwise estimates were consistent with ADOPT: 1.43 (1.10, 1.83) vs. 1.39 (1.04, 1.86), respectively, for edema, and 0.91 (0.79, 1.05) vs. 0.94 (0.80, 1.10) for GI. Conclusion: The PERR Pairwise approach offers potential for enhancing postmarketing surveillance of side-effects from EHRs but requires careful consideration of assumptions.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.The MASTERMIND (MRC APBI Stratification and Extreme Response Mechanism IN Diabetes) consortium is funded by the U.K Medical Research Council funded study grant number MR/N00633X/1. The funder had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. IQVIA provided some funding for this project.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo), submitted versio

Development of oedema is associated with an improved glycaemic response in patients initiating thiazolidinediones: a MASTERMIND study

Abstracts of the 51st EASD Annual Meeting, Stockholm, Sweden, 14–18 September 2015This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer VerlagBackground and aims: Oedema is a common and serious side effect of thiazolidinedione therapy. A stratified medicines approach would aim to give thiazolidinediones to patients likely to have a good glycaemic response but to not develop oedema. We investigated whether oedema was associated with glycaemic response to thiazolidinedione therapy. Materials and methods: We retrospectively studied 11,459 patients initiating a thiazolidinedione from UK primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and identified medical records of new oedema in the subsequent twelve months. Response was defined as change in HbA1c at twelve months and was adjusted for baseline HbA1c, baseline BMI, gender and compliance (medication possession ratio). In secondary analyses we restricted oedema classification to patients with concomitant weight gain. As a comparison the same analysis was performed in 13,089 patients initiating a sulfonylurea. Results: The 5% of patients with recorded oedema on thiazolidinediones had a mean (CI) 2.2 (1.1-3.2)mmol/mol greater fall in HbA1c (p3 kg (p< 0.001) and a 3.6 (1.8-5.4)mmol/mol greater fall when weight gain >5 kg (p3 kg (p=0.19). Conclusion: Patients with Type 2 diabetes who develop oedema on initiating thiazolidinediones have an improved glycaemic response, and more severe oedema may be associated with greater reductions in HbA1c. An association between oedema and glycaemic response was not observed in patients initiating sulfonylureas. This supports glycaemic lowering and fluid retention being mediated by a common pathway of thiazolidinedione drug action.Supported by: MRC grant MR-K005707-