Prediction models for atrial fibrillation applicable in the community:a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with an increased stroke risk. The use of multivariable prediction models could result in more efficient primary AF screening by selecting at-risk individuals. We aimed to determine which model may be best suitable for increasing efficiency of future primary AF screening efforts. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a systematic review on multivariable models derived, validated, and/or augmented for AF prediction in community cohorts using Pubmed, Embase, and CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) through 1 August 2019. We performed meta-analysis of model discrimination with the summary C-statistic as the primary expression of associations using a random effects model. In case of high heterogeneity, we calculated a 95% prediction interval. We used the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) checklist for risk of bias assessment. We included 27 studies with a total of 2 978 659 unique participants among 20 cohorts with mean age ranging from 42 to 76 years. We identified 21 risk models used for incident AF risk in community cohorts. Three models showed significant summary discrimination despite high heterogeneity: CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) [summary C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.66-0.76], FHS-AF (Framingham Heart Study risk score for AF) (summary C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI 0.64-0.76), and CHA2DS2-VASc (summary C-statistic 0.69; 95% CI 0.64-0.74). Of these, CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF had originally been derived for AF incidence prediction. Only CHARGE-AF, which comprises easily obtainable measurements and medical history elements, showed significant summary discrimination among cohorts that had applied a uniform (5-year) risk prediction window. CONCLUSION: CHARGE-AF appeared most suitable for primary screening purposes in terms of performance and applicability in older community cohorts of predominantly European descent

Prognosis and Survival of Older Patients With Dizziness in Primary Care:a 10-year prospective cohort study

Purpose: The prognosis of dizzy older patients in primary care is unknown. Our objective was to determine the prognosis and survival of patients with different subtypes and causes of dizziness. Methods: In a primary care prospective cohort study, 417 older adults with dizziness (mean age 75.5 years) received a full diagnostic workup in 2006-2008. A panel of physicians classified their dizziness subtype and primary cause of dizziness. Presyncope was the most common dizziness subtype (69.1%), followed by vertigo (41.0%), disequilibrium (39.8%), and other dizziness (1.7%). The most common primary causes of dizziness were cardiovascular disease (56.8%) and peripheral vestibular disease (14.4%). Main outcome measures were mortality and dizziness-related impairment assessed at 10-year follow-up.Results: At 10-year follow-up 169 patients (40.5%) had died. Multivariable adjusted Cox models showed a lower mortality rate for patients with the subtype vertigo compared to other subtypes (HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.96)), and for peripheral vestibular disease versus cardiovascular disease as primary cause of dizziness (HR 0.46 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.84)). After 10 years, 47.7% of patients who filled out the follow-up measurement experienced substantial dizziness-related impairment. No significant difference in substantial impairment was seen between different subtypes and primary causes of dizziness. Conclusions: The 10-year mortality rate was lower for the dizziness subtype vertigo compared to other subtypes. Patients with dizziness primarily caused by peripheral vestibular disease had a lower mortality rate than patients with cardiovascular disease. Substantial dizziness-related impairment in older dizzy patients 10 years later is high, and indicates that current treatment strategies by FPs may be suboptimal.<br/

Determinants of Adherence to Treatment in Hypertensive Patients of African Descent and the Role of Culturally Appropriate Education

In Western countries, better knowledge about patient-related determinants of treatment adherence (medication and lifestyle) is needed to improve treatment adherence and outcomes among hypertensive ethnic minority patients of African descent.To identify patient-related determinants of adherence to lifestyle and medication recommendations among hypertensive African Surinamese and Ghanaian patients with suboptimal treatment results (SBP≥140) living in the Netherlands and how culturally appropriate hypertension education (CAHE) influenced those determinants.This study analysed data of 139 patients who participated in the CAHE trial. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to measure the association between patient-related determinants (medication self-efficacy, beliefs about medication and hypertension, social support, and satisfaction with care) and treatment adherence. We also tested whether CAHE influenced the determinants.Medication self-efficacy and social support were associated with medication adherence at baseline. At six months, more medication self-efficacy and fewer concerns about medication use were associated with improved medication adherence. Self-efficacy was also associated with adherence to lifestyle recommendations at baseline. CAHE influenced patients' illness perceptions by creating more understanding of hypertension, its chronic character, and more concerns about the associated risks.In this high-risk population, health care providers can support medication adherence by paying attention to patients' medication self-efficacy, the concerns they may have about medication use and patients' perceptions on hypertension. The CAHE intervention improved patients' perception on hypertension

Profiling Dizziness in Older Primary Care Patients: An Empirical Study

The diagnostic approach to dizzy, older patients is not straightforward as many organ systems can be involved and evidence for diagnostic strategies is lacking. A first differentiation in diagnostic subtypes or profiles may guide the diagnostic process of dizziness and can serve as a classification system in future research. In the literature this has been done, but based on pathophysiological reasoning only

Development of a diagnostic protocol for dizziness in elderly patients in general practice: a Delphi procedure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dizziness in general practice is very common, especially in elderly patients. The empirical evidence for diagnostic tests in the evaluation of dizziness is scarce. Aim of our study was to determine which set of diagnostic tests should be part of a diagnostic protocol for evaluating dizziness in elderly patients in general practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a Delphi procedure with a panel of 16 national and international experts of all relevant medical specialities in the field of dizziness. A selection of 36 diagnostic tests, based on a systematic review and practice guidelines, was presented to the panel. Each test was described extensively, and data on test characteristics and methodological quality (assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies, QUADAS) were presented. The threshold for in- or exclusion of a diagnostic test was set at an agreement of 70%.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During three rounds 21 diagnostic tests were selected, concerning patient history (4 items), physical examination (11 items), and additional tests (6 items). Five tests were excluded, although they are recommended by existing practice guidelines on dizziness. Two tests were included, although several practice guidelines question their diagnostic value. Two more tests were included that have never been recommended by practice guidelines on dizziness.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study we successfully combined empirical evidence with expert opinion for the development of a set of diagnostic tests for evaluating dizziness in elderly patients. This comprehensive set of tests will be evaluated in a cross-sectional diagnostic study.</p

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Accuracy of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) for screening to detect major depression: individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the accuracy of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) for screening to detect major depression. Design: Individual participant data meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, Medline In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, PsycINFO, and Web of Science (January 2000-February 2015). Inclusion criteria: Eligible studies compared PHQ-9 scores with major depression diagnoses from validated diagnostic interviews. Primary study data and study level data extracted from primary reports were synthesized. For PHQ-9 cut-off scores 5-15, bivariate random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity, separately, among studies that used semistructured diagnostic interviews, which are designed for administration by clinicians; fully structured interviews, which are designed for lay administration; and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric (MINI) diagnostic interviews, a brief fully structured interview. Sensitivity and specificity were examined among participant subgroups and, separately, using meta-regression, considering all subgroup variables in a single model. Results: Data were obtained for 58 of 72 eligible studies (total n=17 357; major depression cases n=2312). Combined sensitivity and specificity was maximized at a cut-off score of 10 or above among studies using a semistructured interview (29 studies, 6725 participants; sensitivity 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.92; specificity 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88). Across cut-off scores 5-15, sensitivity with semistructured interviews was 5-22% higher than for fully structured interviews (MINI excluded; 14 studies, 7680 participants) and 2-15% higher than for the MINI (15 studies, 2952 participants). Specificity was similar across diagnostic interviews. The PHQ-9 seems to be similarly sensitive but may be less specific for younger patients than for older patients; a cut-off score of 10 or above can be used regardless of age.. Conclusions: PHQ-9 sensitivity compared with semistructured diagnostic interviews was greater than in previous conventional meta-analyses that combined reference standards. A cut-off score of 10 or above maximized combined sensitivity and specificity overall and for subgroups. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42014010673

Probability of major depression diagnostic classification using semi-structured vs. fully structured diagnostic interviews

Background: Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification. Aims: To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics. Method: Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analyzed. Binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Models were fit. Results: 17,158 participants (2,287 major depression cases) from 57 primary studies were analyzed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared to the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) [OR (95% CI) = 2.10 (1.15-3.87)]. Compared to semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 6) as having major depression [OR (95% CI) = 3.13 (0.98-10.00)], similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7-15) [OR (95% CI) = 0.96 (0.56-1.66)], and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 16) [OR (95% CI) = 0.50 (0.26-0.97)]. Conclusions: The MINI may identify more depressed cases than the CIDI, and semi- and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological systematic review of health technology assessments

Background: Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. Methods: We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. Results: The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. Conclusions: The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]