Comparing linkage and association analyses in sheep points to a better way of doing GWAS

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have largely succeeded family-based linkage studies in livestock and human populations as the preferred method to map loci for complex or quantitative traits. However, the type of results produced by the two analyses contrast sharply due to differences in linkage disequilibrium (LD) imposed by the design of studies. In this paper, we demonstrate that association and linkage studies are in agreement provided that (i) the effects from both studies are estimated appropriately as random effects, (ii) all markers are fitted simultaneously and (iii) appropriate adjustments are made for the differences in LD between the study designs. We demonstrate with real data that linkage results can be predicted by the sum of association effects. Our association study captured most of the linkage information because we could predict the linkage results with moderate accuracy. We suggest that the ability of common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) to capture the genetic variance in a population will depend on the effective population size of the study organism. The results provide further evidence for many loci of small effect underlying complex traits. The analysis suggests a more informed method for GWAS is to fit statistical models where all SNPs are analysed simultaneously and as random effects

Novel multimorbidity clusters in people with eczema and asthma:a population-based cluster analysis

Eczema and asthma are allergic diseases and two of the commonest chronic conditions in high-income countries. Their co-existence with other allergic conditions is common, but little research exists on wider multimorbidity with these conditions. We set out to identify and compare clusters of multimorbidity in people with eczema or asthma and people without. Using routinely-collected primary care data from the U.K. Clinical Research Practice Datalink GOLD, we identified adults ever having eczema (or asthma), and comparison groups never having eczema (or asthma). We derived clusters of multimorbidity from hierarchical cluster analysis of Jaccard distances between pairs of diagnostic categories estimated from mixed-effects logistic regressions. We analysed 434,422 individuals with eczema (58% female, median age 47 years) and 1,333,281 individuals without (55% female, 47 years), and 517,712 individuals with asthma (53% female, 44 years) and 1,601,210 individuals without (53% female, 45 years). Age at first morbidity, sex and having eczema/asthma affected the scope of multimorbidity, with women, older age and eczema/asthma being associated with larger morbidity clusters. Injuries, digestive, nervous system and mental health disorders were more commonly seen in eczema and asthma than control clusters. People with eczema and asthma of all ages and both sexes may experience greater multimorbidity than people without eczema and asthma, including conditions not previously recognised as contributing to their disease burden. This work highlights areas where there is a critical need for research addressing the burden and drivers of multimorbidity in order to inform strategies to reduce poor health outcomes

Using atmospheric observations to quantify annual biogenic carbon dioxide fluxes on the Alaska North Slope

The continued warming of the Arctic could release vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere from high-latitude ecosystems, especially from thawing permafrost. Increasing uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by vegetation during longer growing seasons may partially offset such release of carbon. However, evidence of significant net annual release of carbon from site-level observations and model simulations across tundra ecosystems has been inconclusive. To address this knowledge gap, we combined top-down observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration enhancements from aircraft and a tall tower, which integrate ecosystem exchange over large regions, with bottom-up observed CO2 fluxes from tundra environments and found that the Alaska North Slope is not a consistent net source nor net sink of CO2 to the atmosphere (ranging from −6 to +6 Tg C yr−1 for 2012–2017). Our analysis suggests that significant biogenic CO2 fluxes from unfrozen terrestrial soils, and likely inland waters, during the early cold season (September–December) are major factors in determining the net annual carbon balance of the North Slope, implying strong sensitivity to the rapidly warming freeze-up period. At the regional level, we find no evidence of the previously reported large late-cold-season (January–April) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere during the study period. Despite the importance of the cold-season CO2 emissions to the annual total, the interannual variability in the net CO2 flux is driven by the variability in growing season fluxes. During the growing season, the regional net CO2 flux is also highly sensitive to the distribution of tundra vegetation types throughout the North Slope. This study shows that quantification and characterization of year-round CO2 fluxes from the heterogeneous terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic using both site-level and atmospheric observations are important to accurately project the Earth system response to future warming.</p

Patterns of emergency admission for IBD patients over the last 10 years in Lothian, Scotland: A retrospective prevalent cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear how the compounding prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has translated into the causes and rates of hospitalisation, particularly in an era of increased biologic prescribing. We aimed to analyse these trends in a population-based IBD cohort over the last 10 years. DESIGN: The Lothian IBD registry is a complete, validated, prevalent database of IBD patients in NHS Lothian, Scotland. ICD-10 coding of hospital discharge letters from all IBD patient admissions to secondary care between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019 was interrogated for admission cause, with linkage to local/national data sets on death and prescribed drugs. RESULTS: Fifty-seven per cent (4673/8211) of all IBD patients were admitted to secondary care for >24 h between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. In patients 60 years (19% of admissions). Three per cent (243/8211) of IBD patients accounted for 50% of the total IBD bed-days over the study period. Age-standardised IBD admission rates fell from 39.4 to 25.5 admissions per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2019, an average annual percentage reduction of 3% (95% CI -4.5% to -2.1%, p < 0.0001). Non-IBD admission rates were unchanged overall (145-137 per 100,000 population) and specifically for serious (hospitalisation) and severe (ITU admission or death) infection over the same period. CONCLUSION: Despite compounding prevalence and increased biologic use, IBD admission rates are falling. The cause of admission varies with age, with infection the predominant cause in older patients

ABCB1 (MDR1) polymorphisms and ovarian cancer progression and survival: A comprehensive analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium and The Cancer Genome Atlas

&lt;b&gt;Objective&lt;/b&gt; &lt;i&gt;ABCB1&lt;/i&gt; encodes the multi-drug efflux pump P-glycoprotein (P-gp) and has been implicated in multi-drug resistance. We comprehensively evaluated this gene and flanking regions for an association with clinical outcome in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; The best candidates from fine-mapping analysis of 21 &lt;i&gt;ABCB1&lt;/i&gt; SNPs tagging C1236T (rs1128503), G2677T/A (rs2032582), and C3435T (rs1045642) were analysed in 4616 European invasive EOC patients from thirteen Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) studies and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Additionally we analysed 1,562 imputed SNPs around ABCB1 in patients receiving cytoreductive surgery and either ‘standard’ first-line paclitaxel–carboplatin chemotherapy (n = 1158) or any first-line chemotherapy regimen (n = 2867). We also evaluated ABCB1 expression in primary tumours from 143 EOC patients.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Result&lt;/b&gt; Fine-mapping revealed that rs1128503, rs2032582, and rs1045642 were the best candidates in optimally debulked patients. However, we observed no significant association between any SNP and either progression-free survival or overall survival in analysis of data from 14 studies. There was a marginal association between rs1128503 and overall survival in patients with nil residual disease (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77–1.01; p = 0.07). In contrast, &lt;i&gt;ABCB1&lt;/i&gt; expression in the primary tumour may confer worse prognosis in patients with sub-optimally debulked tumours.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; Our study represents the largest analysis of &lt;i&gt;ABCB1&lt;/i&gt; SNPs and EOC progression and survival to date, but has not identified additional signals, or validated reported associations with progression-free survival for rs1128503, rs2032582, and rs1045642. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a subtle effect of rs1128503, or other SNPs linked to it, on overall survival.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

A water cycle for the Anthropocene

International audienceHumor us for a minute and do an online image search of the water cycle. How many diagrams do you have to scroll through before seeing any sign of humans? What about water pollution or climate change—two of the main drivers of the global water crisis? In a recent analysis of more than 450 water cycle diagrams, we found that 85% showed no human interaction with the water cycle and 98% omitted any sign of climate change or waterpollution (Abbott et al., 2019). Additionally, 92% of diagrams depicted verdant, temperate ecosystems with abundant freshwater and 95% showed only a single river basin. It did not matter if the diagrams came from textbooks, scientific articles, or the internet, nor if they were old or new; most showed an undisturbed water cycle, free from human interference. These depictions contrast starkly with the state of the water cycle in the Anthropocene, when land conversion, human water use, and climate change affect nearly every water pool and flux (Wurtsbaugh et al., 2017; Falkenmark et al., 2019; Wine and Davison, 2019). The dimensions and scale of human interference with water are manifest in failing fossil aquifersin the world’s great agricultural regions (Famiglietti, 2014), accelerating ice discharge from the Arctic (Box et al., 2018), and instability in atmospheric rivers that support continental rainfall (Paul et al., 2016).We believe that incorrect water cycle diagrams are a symptom of a much deeper and widespread problem about how humanity relates to water on Earth. Society does not understand how the water cycle works nor how humans fit into it (Attari, 2014; Linton, 2014; Abbott et al., 2019). In response to this crisis of understanding, we call on researchers, educators, journalists, lawyers, and policy makers to change how we conceptualize and present the global water cycle. Specifically, we must teach where water comes from, what determines its availability, and how many individuals and ecosystems are in crisis because of water mismanagement, climate change, and land conversion. Because the drivers of the global water crisis are truly global, ensuring adequate water for humans and ecosystems will require coordinated efforts that extend beyond geopolitical borders and outlast the tenure of individual administrations (Keys et al., 2017; Adler, 2019). This level of coordination and holistic thinking requires widespread understanding of the water cycle and the global water crisis. Making the causes and consequences of the water crisis visible in our diagrams is atractable and important step towards the goal of a sustainable relationship with water that includes ecosystems and society

Human domination of the global water cycle absent from depictions and perceptions

International audienceHuman water use, climate change and land conversion have created a water crisis for billions of individuals and many ecosystems worldwide. Global water stocks and fluxes are estimated empirically and with computer models, but this information is conveyed to policymakers and researchers through water cycle diagrams. Here we compiled a synthesis of the global water cycle, which we compared with 464 water cycle diagrams from around the world. Although human freshwater appropriation now equals half of global river discharge, only 15% of the water cycle diagrams depicted human interaction with water. Only 2% of the diagrams showed climate change or water pollution—two of the central causes of the global water crisis—which effectively conveys a false sense of water security. A single catchment was depicted in 95% of the diagrams, which precludes the representation of teleconnections such as ocean–land interactions and continental moisture recycling. These inaccuracies correspond with specific dimensions of water mismanagement, which suggest that flaws in water diagrams reflect and reinforce the misunderstanding of global hydrology by policymakers, researchers and the public. Correct depictions of the water cycle will not solve the global water crisis, but reconceiving this symbol is an important step towards equitable water governance, sustainable development and planetary thinking in the Anthropocene

Novel multimorbidity clusters in people with eczema and asthma: a population-based cluster analysis.

Eczema and asthma are allergic diseases and two of the commonest chronic conditions in high-income countries. Their co-existence with other allergic conditions is common, but little research exists on wider multimorbidity with these conditions. We set out to identify and compare clusters of multimorbidity in people with eczema or asthma and people without. Using routinely-collected primary care data from the U.K. Clinical Research Practice Datalink GOLD, we identified adults ever having eczema (or asthma), and comparison groups never having eczema (or asthma). We derived clusters of multimorbidity from hierarchical cluster analysis of Jaccard distances between pairs of diagnostic categories estimated from mixed-effects logistic regressions. We analysed 434,422 individuals with eczema (58% female, median age 47 years) and 1,333,281 individuals without (55% female, 47 years), and 517,712 individuals with asthma (53% female, 44 years) and 1,601,210 individuals without (53% female, 45 years). Age at first morbidity, sex and having eczema/asthma affected the scope of multimorbidity, with women, older age and eczema/asthma being associated with larger morbidity clusters. Injuries, digestive, nervous system and mental health disorders were more commonly seen in eczema and asthma than control clusters. People with eczema and asthma of all ages and both sexes may experience greater multimorbidity than people without eczema and asthma, including conditions not previously recognised as contributing to their disease burden. This work highlights areas where there is a critical need for research addressing the burden and drivers of multimorbidity in order to inform strategies to reduce poor health outcomes

Ethnic differences in the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical monitoring and hospitalisations for non-COVID conditions in England: a population-based, observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and may have impacted ethnic inequalities in healthcare. We aimed to describe the impact of pandemic-related disruption on ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospital admissions for non-COVID conditions in England. // Methods: In this population-based, observational cohort study we used primary care electronic health record data with linkage to hospital episode statistics data and mortality data within OpenSAFELY, a data analytics platform created, with approval of NHS England, to address urgent COVID-19 research questions. We included adults aged 18 years and over registered with a TPP practice between March 1, 2018, and April 30, 2022. We excluded those with missing age, sex, geographic region, or Index of Multiple Deprivation. We grouped ethnicity (exposure), into five categories: White, Asian, Black, Other, and Mixed. We used interrupted time-series regression to estimate ethnic differences in clinical monitoring frequency (blood pressure and Hba1c measurements, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma annual reviews) before and after March 23, 2020. We used multivariable Cox regression to quantify ethnic differences in hospitalisations related to diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental health before and after March 23, 2020. // Findings: Of 33,510,937 registered with a GP as of 1st January 2020, 19,064,019 were adults, alive and registered for at least 3 months, 3,010,751 met the exclusion criteria and 1,122,912 were missing ethnicity. This resulted in 14,930,356 adults with known ethnicity (92% of sample): 86.6% were White, 7.3% Asian, 2.6% Black, 1.4% Mixed ethnicity, and 2.2% Other ethnicities. Clinical monitoring did not return to pre-pandemic levels for any ethnic group. Ethnic differences were apparent pre-pandemic, except for diabetes monitoring, and remained unchanged, except for blood pressure monitoring in those with mental health conditions where differences narrowed during the pandemic. For those of Black ethnicity, there were seven additional admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis per month during the pandemic, and relative ethnic differences narrowed during the pandemic compared to the White ethnic group (Pre-pandemic hazard ratio (HR): 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41, 0.60, Pandemic HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.87). There was increased admissions for heart failure during the pandemic for all ethnic groups, though highest in those of White ethnicity (heart failure risk difference: 5.4). Relatively, ethnic differences narrowed for heart failure admission in those of Asian (Pre-pandemic HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.49, 1.64, Pandemic HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19, 1.29) and Black ethnicity (Pre-pandemic HR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.53, Pandemic HR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.09, 1.25) compared with White ethnicity. For other outcomes the pandemic had minimal impact on ethnic differences. // Interpretation: Our study suggests that ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospitalisations remained largely unchanged during the pandemic for most conditions. Key exceptions were hospitalisations for diabetic ketoacidosis and heart failure, which warrant further investigation to understand the causes

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A&gt;T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations