Linking Farm and Market Models to Analyse the Effects of the EU Nitrate Directive for the Dutch Agricultural Sector

This paper presents a modeling system that can be used to analyze the trade off between economy and environment. It takes into account manure policy, farm structure and manure surpluses at farm level as well as the economic effects of manure surpluses at market level. The modeling system consists of two models that are linked to each other by at the one-hand manure prices and distribution of manure over different destinations and at the other hand changes in agricultural and total manure production. One model is the so-called Manure and Ammonia Model (MAM). This model calculates manure surpluses and deficits at the farm level and distribution of manure to own farm, own region, other regions, export abroad and processing at the regional level. Moreover, MAM also calculates ammonia emissions coming from different sources. The second model is a market model that includes the most important agricultural markets. The models are calibrated for 2002. The modeling system is tested to analyze the effects of sharpened manure policies until 2006.farm models, market models, manure, economy, policy, Agricultural and Food Policy,

A texture component crystal plasticity finite element method for scalable anisotropy simulations

This progress report introduces a crystal plasticity finite element method which includes and updates the texture of polycrystalline matter for physically based simulations of large strain forming operations. The approach works by directly mapping a set of discrete texture components into a crystal plasticity finite element method. The method is well suited for industrial applications since it is formulated on the basis of existing commercial software solutions. The study gives an overview of the new texture component crystal plasticity finite element method and presents examples

Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Policies in the agricultural and rural sectors are of key importance in shaping their sustainable development. These policies are changing from market-based policies to policies that aim to influence farmers' decision-making. Thus, the scientific literature supporting evidence-based policy-making must develop models that simulate individual decision-making (IDM) by farmers. This study aims to understand key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios relevant to the European agricultural sector to define the research agenda for a suite of IDM models. This research goal has been addressed following a five-step process that involved different research tools and heterogeneous actors, including key stakeholders. Results suggest that environmental policy objectives are the most relevant for European agriculture in the coming decades. Thus, the scenario modelling exercise should focus mainly on the agri-environmental policies' impacts while properly considering the potential trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives

Focus and Application Options

LIAISE Policy Brief No. 5 on "Scientific tools in Europe: focus and application options" has just been published. Policy Impact Assessment (IA) has been an obligatory procedure in the legislative process within the EU since 2002. It has to identify the likely impacts on sustainable development (specifically the social, environmental and economic impacts) of all major policy strategies and instruments prior to actual implementation. The link between IA and sustainable development is rooted in the 2006 renewed Sustainable Development Strategy. IA also provides the legal basis to feed scientific evidence into the policy process and to base policy-making on scientifically robust tools and results. In line with the recognition of the importance of IA for sound sustainable policies, the EC (DG Research and Innovation) has funded through the Framework Programmes (FP) 6 and 7 research supporting knowledge creation in this field. This policy brief presents an analysis of tools developed in the context of FP6 and FP7 undertaken by the LIAISE project. This assessment focused on the following interests of IA practitioners as tool users: Which policy area(s) do the tools address? Which impact area(s) are covered by the tools? Which jurisdictional level(s) can the tools be applied at? How can the tools be categorized? There exists a wide variety of tools that comprises: Quantitative and qualitative tools, such as models, scenarios, multi-criteria analysis and participatory tools, Tool components, such as indicators, databases and comprehensive analytic methods, Evaluation frameworks, toolboxes and platforms etc. serving as a higher level system for tool selection or tool linkage. These results are based on an analysis of 203 research projects designing tools for IA funded in FP6 and 7. The results shall contribute to addressing the science-policy interface of IA by identifying possible challenges for tool users and tool suppliers with respect to tool development and selection

Groene grond in ruimtelijke perspectieven

De langetermijngrondmarkteffecten van de ruimtelijke perspectieven Palet (geen ruimtelijke ordening) en Stedenland+ (huidige situatie met stedelijke ontwikkeling langs de internationale vervoersassen) lopen nogal uiteen. Zo is er in Palet sprake van een ongesegmenteerde grondmarkt met relatief hoge 'agrarische' grondprijzen in het landelijk gebied, van versnipperd grondgebruik en een hoge grondmobiliteit. In Stedenland+ zijn er grote grondprijsverschillen tussen de diverse stedelijke en niet-stedelijke segmenten en is er sprake van hoge agrarische grondprijzen wanneer voor de landbouw wordt uitgegaan van evenwichtsbemesting. Grond voor wonen en werken is in Stedenland+ relatief duur omdat het daarvoor ter beschikking staande areaal kunstmatig schaars wordt gehouden. De uitbreiding van de Ecologische Hoofd Structuur kan daarentegen tegen lage kosten binnen het agrarische segment worden gerealiseerd, indien bij grondeigenaren niet de verwachting wordt gewekt dat 'rood voor groen betaalt'

Vleeskalveren en Hervorming Gemeenschappelijk Landbouwbeleid

Dit rapport geeft de mogelijke gevolgen voor de vleeskalverhouderijsector weer van de voorstellen van de Europese Commissie voor het Gemeenschappelijk Landbouwbeleid in januari 2003. Het gaat hierbij vooral om de gevolgen van enkele specifieke aspecten van deze voorstellen, namelijk de ontkoppeling van de slachtpremies van de feitelijke productie, de beperking van de overdracht van premies en de voorwaarden voor het ontvangen van premies. De gevolgen voor de markt en de bedrijfstak worden geanalyseerd in kwantitatieve zin en kwalitatief

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets