Acute health shocks and labour market outcomes

We investigate the labour supply response to acute health shocks experienced in the post-crash labour market by individuals of working age, using data from Understanding Society. Identification exploits uncertainty in the timing of an acute health shock, defined by the incidence of cancer, stroke, or heart attack. Results, obtained through a combination of coarsened exact and propensity score matching, show acute health shocks significantly reduce participation, with younger workers displaying stronger labour market attachment. The impact on older, more educated, women suggests an important role for preferences, financial constraints, and intra-household division of labour determining labour supply decisions

Cosmology intertwined: A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies

The standard Cold Dark Matter (CDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H0, the σ8–S8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0 σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade’s experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density m, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure (σ8, f σ8). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H0–S8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions

Apparent cosmic acceleration from type Ia supernovae

Parameters that quantify the acceleration of cosmic expansion are conventionally determined within the standard Friedmann-Lema\^{\i}tre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) model, which fixes spatial curvature to be homogeneous. Generic averages of Einstein's equations in inhomogeneous cosmology lead to models with non-rigidly evolving average spatial curvature, and different parameterizations of apparent cosmic acceleration. The timescape cosmology is a viable example of such a model without dark energy. Using the largest available supernova data set, the JLA catalogue, we find that the timescape model fits the luminosity distance-redshift data with a likelihood that is statistically indistinguishable from the standard spatially flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmology by Bayesian comparison. In the timescape case cosmic acceleration is non-zero but has a marginal amplitude, with best fit apparent deceleration parameter, $q_0=-0.042^{+0.04}_{-0.01}$. Systematic issues regarding standardization of supernova light curves are analysed. Cuts of data at the statistical homogeneity scale affect light curve parameter fits independent of cosmology. A cosmological model dependency of empirical changes to the mean colour parameter is also found. Irrespective of which model ultimately fits better, we argue that as a competitive model with a non-FLRW expansion history, the timescape model may prove a useful diagnostic tool for disentangling selection effects and astrophysical systematics from the underlying expansion history

Baryon acoustic oscillation methods for generic curvature: Application to the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

We develop methods for investigating baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) features in cosmological models with non-trivial curvature: models that are not necessarily flat, close to flat, nor with constant spatial curvature. The class of models to which our methods apply include Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi models, modified gravity cosmologies, and inhomogeneous cosmologies with backreaction - in which we do not have a prediction of the shape of the spatial 2-point correlation function, but where we nevertheless expect to see a BAO feature in the present-day galaxy distribution, in form of an excess in the galaxy 2-point correlation function. We apply our methods to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) dataset, investigating both the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) and timescape cosmological models as case studies. The correlation functions measured in the two fiducial models contain a similarly-pronounced BAO feature. We use the relative tangential and radial BAO scales to measure the anisotropic Alcock-Paczyński distortion parameter, ε, which is independent of the underlying BAO preferred scale. We find that ε is consistent with zero in both fiducial cosmologies, indicating that models with a different spatial curvature behaviour can account for the relative positions of the tangential and radial BAO scale. We validate our methods using ΛCDM mocks

Statut der „deutschen ornithologischen Gesellschaft zu Berlin”

Volume: 18Start Page: 73End Page: 7