Single Item Lot Sizing Problem for a Warm/Cold Process with Immediate Lost Sales

Cataloged from PDF version of article.We consider the dynamic lot-sizing problem with finite capacity and possible lost sales for a process that could be kept warm at a unit variable cost for the next period t + 1 only if more than a threshold value Qt has been produced and would be cold, otherwise. Production with a cold process incurs a fixed positive setup cost, Kt and setup time, St, which may be positive. Setup costs and times for a warm process are negligible. We develop a dynamic programming formulation of the problem, establish theoretical results on the structure of the optimal production plan in the presence of zero and positive setup times with Wagner–Whitin-type cost structures. We also show that the solution to the dynamic lot-sizing problem with lost sales are generated from the full commitment production series improved via lost sales decisions in the presence of a warm/cold process. 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Financial Liberalization to the Stability of Indonesia's Exchange Rate

Paper ini mengkaji hubungan antara nilai tukar dengan fundamental makroeko¬nomi Indonesia dari tahun 1997 sampai 2004. Kajian ini menerangkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US dollar, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang dengan menggunakan teori kointegrasi. Untuk melihat kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah sebelum dan sesudah krisis ekonomi digunakan Uji Chow. Objektif lain dari kajian ini adalah ingin membuktikan apakah terjadi lonjakan yang tajam (overshoot) terhadap rupiah ketika krisis berlangsung. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa rupiah memang melonjak tajam akibat adanya peningkatan penawaran uang dan inflasi. Hasil juga menunjukkan ter¬jadi hubungan kointegrasi antara nilai tukar dan fundamental makroekonomi serta terjadi Perubahan struktural setelah tahun 1998

On the Connection Between Flap Side-Edge Noise and Tip Vortex Dynamics

The goal of the present work is to investigate how the dynamics of the vortical flow about the flap side edge of an aircraft determine the acoustic radiation. A validated lattice- Boltzmann CFD solution of the unsteady flow about a detailed business jet configuration in approach conditions is used for the present analysis. Evidence of the connection between the noise generated by several segments of the inboard flap tip and the aerodynamic forces acting on the same segments is given, proving that the noise generation mechanism has a spatially coherent and acoustically compact character on the scale of the flap chord, and that the edge-scattering effects are of secondary importance. Subsequently, evidence of the connection between the kinematics of the tip vortex system and the aerodynamic force is provided. The kinematics of the dual vortex system are investigated via a core detection technique. Emphasis is placed on the mutual induction effects between the two main vortices rolling up from the pressure and suction sides of the flap edge. A simple heuristic formula that relates the far-field noise spectrum and the cross-spectrum of the unsteady vortical positions is developed

The Effects of Nutrient Concentration, Addition of Thickeners, and Agitation Speed on Liquid Fermentation of Steinernema feltiae

Entomopathogenic nematode production in liquid fermentation still requires improvements to maximize efficiency, yield, and nematode quality. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing a more suitable liquid medium for mass production of Steinernema feltiae, by assessing the effects of nutrient concentration, thickeners (primarily agar), and agitation speed on infective juvenile (IJ) yield. Base medium (BM) contained yeast extract (2.3%), egg yolk (1.25%), NaCl (0.5%), and corn oil (4%). All media were inoculated with Xenorhabdus bovienii, and 2 d later, with 2-d-old S. feltiae juveniles. For the nutrient concentration experiment, we evaluated the base medium versus a modified base medium containing all the components, but with 33 concentrations of yeast extract (6.9%), egg yolk (3.75%), and corn oil (12%). The nematodes and bacteria were cultured in 150-ml Erlenmeyer flasks containing 50 ml of liquid medium at (258C) and 180 rpm on a rotary shaker incubator. To assess the effect of thickeners, IJs were inoculated in BM with agar (0.2%), carrageen (0.2%), and carboxymethyl cellulose (0.2% and 0.5%). The addition of 33 more nutrients relative to the BM resulted in a significantly lower yield of nematodes. For agar and agitation speed experiments, five levels of agar in the BM (0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.8% agar) and two agitation speeds (180 and 280 rpm) were evaluated for production. Increasing agitation speed from 180 to 280 rpm and higher levels of agar in the medium (. 0.2%) significantly increased the yield of bacteria. At the lower agitation speed, media amended with 0.4% and 0.6% agar produced higher nematode yields compared to media without agar. Media with 0.2% and 0.8% agar resulted in intermediate levels of nematode production. At the higher agitation speed, media supplemented with 0.8% agar resulted in the lowest yield of nematodes when compared to the other media tested.Results indicated that increasing nutrient concentration levels was detrimental to nematode production. Also, media containing agar (0.4% and 0.6%) increased nematode yields when cultures were grown at low agitation speed. When IJs were used as the inoculum,0.2% agar also enhanced recovery and nematode yield at the higher agitation speed

Measuring Coverage in MNCH:A Validation Study Linking Population Survey Derived Coverage to Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Care Records in Rural China

Accurate data on coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions are crucial for monitoring progress toward the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. Coverage estimates are primarily obtained from routine population surveys through self-reporting, the validity of which is not well understood. We aimed to examine the validity of the coverage of selected MNCH interventions in Gongcheng County, China.We conducted a validation study by comparing women's self-reported coverage of MNCH interventions relating to antenatal and postnatal care, mode of delivery, and child vaccinations in a community survey with their paper- and electronic-based health care records, treating the health care records as the reference standard. Of 936 women recruited, 914 (97.6%) completed the survey. Results show that self-reported coverage of these interventions had moderate to high sensitivity (0.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50-0.63] to 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98-1.00]) and low to high specificity (0 to 0.83 [95% CI: 0.80-0.86]). Despite varying overall validity, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging between 0.49 [95% CI: 0.39-0.57] and 0.90 [95% CI: 0.88-0.92], bias in the coverage estimates at the population level was small to moderate, with the test to actual positive (TAP) ratio ranging between 0.8 and 1.5 for 24 of the 28 indicators examined. Our ability to accurately estimate validity was affected by several caveats associated with the reference standard. Caution should be exercised when generalizing the results to other settings.The overall validity of self-reported coverage was moderate across selected MNCH indicators. However, at the population level, self-reported coverage appears to have small to moderate degree of bias. Accuracy of the coverage was particularly high for indicators with high recorded coverage or low recorded coverage but high specificity. The study provides insights into the accuracy of self-reports based on a population survey in low- and middle-income countries. Similar studies applying an improved reference standard are warranted in the future

Indiscriminate ingestion of entomopathogenic nematodes and their symbiotic bacteria by Aedes aegypti larvae: a novel strategy to control the vector of Chikungunya, dengue and yellow fever

Third and fourth instar larvae of Aedes aegypti actively ingested entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) and their symbiotic bacteria, resulting in larval mortality. All six EPN species evaluated in this study were pathogenic to Ae. aegypti but varied significantly in their virulence. Heterorhabditis bacteriophora and Steinernema carpocapsae were most virulent, H. megidis and S. kraussei showed the least virulence, whereas H. downesi and S. feltiae had intermediate virulence. Larval mortality was dose dependent for all EPN species. When using a dose of 100 infective juveniles (IJs) per larva, H. bacteriophora and S. carpocapsae caused 90%-100% mortality, whereas H. downesi and S. feltiae caused only 40%-60% mortality. Even when using 200 IJs/larva, H. megidis and S. kraussei caused a maximum of 30%-40% mortality. Some of the invasive EPNs were melanized, suggesting a strong humoral defense response by the Aedes larvae. The degree of melanization was quite variable; some EPNs were totally enveloped in a melanin sheath while others were partially coated with melanin. Melanization did not stop the EPN from multiplying and killing the Aedes larvae. IJs released from infected larvae would have the potential to infect healthy mosquito larvae. Also, both bacterial supernatant and bacterial cell suspension of Xenorhabdus nematophila caused >91% larval mortality after 48 h, whereas only the bacterial cell suspension of Photorhabdus laumondii was effective against the mosquito larvae. These data provides useful information on the potential use of EPNs and/or formulated bacterial cell suspensions in the control of the important urban and container-breeding mosquito, Ae. aegypti, and are a starting point for future simulated and actual field studies

Measuring Coverage in MNCH:A Prospective Validation Study in Pakistan and Bangladesh on Measuring Correct Treatment of Childhood Pneumonia

Antibiotic treatment for pneumonia as measured by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) is a key indicator for tracking progress in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4. Concerns about the validity of this indicator led us to perform an evaluation in urban and rural settings in Pakistan and Bangladesh.Caregivers of 950 children under 5 y with pneumonia and 980 with "no pneumonia" were identified in urban and rural settings and allocated for DHS/MICS questions 2 or 4 wk later. Study physicians assigned a diagnosis of pneumonia as reference standard; the predictive ability of DHS/MICS questions and additional measurement tools to identify pneumonia versus non-pneumonia cases was evaluated. Results at both sites showed suboptimal discriminative power, with no difference between 2- or 4-wk recall. Individual patterns of sensitivity and specificity varied substantially across study sites (sensitivity 66.9% and 45.5%, and specificity 68.8% and 69.5%, for DHS in Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively). Prescribed antibiotics for pneumonia were correctly recalled by about two-thirds of caregivers using DHS questions, increasing to 72% and 82% in Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively, using a drug chart and detailed enquiry.Monitoring antibiotic treatment of pneumonia is essential for national and global programs. Current (DHS/MICS questions) and proposed new (video and pneumonia score) methods of identifying pneumonia based on maternal recall discriminate poorly between pneumonia and children with cough. Furthermore, these methods have a low yield to identify children who have true pneumonia. Reported antibiotic treatment rates among these children are therefore not a valid proxy indicator of pneumonia treatment rates. These results have important implications for program monitoring and suggest that data in its current format from DHS/MICS surveys should not be used for the purpose of monitoring antibiotic treatment rates in children with pneumonia at the present time

Experience developing national evidence-based clinical guidelines for childhood pneumonia in a low-income setting - making the GRADE?

BACKGROUND: The development of evidence-based clinical practice guidelines has gained wide acceptance in high-income countries and reputable international organizations. Whereas this approach may be a desirable standard, challenges remain in low-income settings with limited capacity and resources for evidence synthesis and guideline development. We present our experience using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach for the recent revision of the Kenyan pediatric clinical guidelines focusing on antibiotic treatment of pneumonia. METHODS: A team of health professionals, many with minimal prior experience conducting systematic reviews, carried out evidence synthesis for structured clinical questions. Summaries were compiled and distributed to a panel of clinicians, academicians and policy-makers to generate recommendations based on best available research evidence and locally-relevant contextual factors. RESULTS: We reviewed six eligible articles on non-severe and 13 on severe/very severe pneumonia. Moderate quality evidence suggesting similar clinical outcomes comparing amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole for non-severe pneumonia received a strong recommendation against adopting amoxicillin. The panel voted strongly against amoxicillin for severe pneumonia over benzyl penicillin despite moderate quality evidence suggesting clinical equivalence between the two and additional factors favoring amoxicillin. Very low quality evidence suggesting ceftriaxone was as effective as the standard benzyl penicillin plus gentamicin for very severe pneumonia received a strong recommendation supporting the standard treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Although this exercise may have fallen short of the rigorous requirements recommended by the developers of GRADE, it was arguably an improvement on previous attempts at guideline development in low-income countries and offers valuable lessons for future similar exercises where resources and locally-generated evidence are scarce

How is Perceived Community Cohesion and Membership in Community Groups Associated with Children’s Dietary Adequacy in Disadvantaged Communities? A Case of the Indian Sundarbans

Background: Membership in community groups and a sense of community cohesion may facilitate collective action in mobilizing resources towards better health outcomes. This paper explores the relationship of these factors, along with individual level socio-economic variables, to dietary adequacy among children below 6 years of age, a proximate determinant of child malnutrition. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in Patharpratima block of the Sundarbans in West Bengal, India, using a two-stage, 30 cluster random sampling design. In 1200 sampled households, we used a structured questionnaire to interview mothers of children below 6 years of age on their child’s nutritional intake. We also interviewed household heads to assess perceived community cohesion using a nine item scale, membership in any community self-help organization, and other socio-economic determinants. We used a logistic regression model to assess their association with a minimum acceptable diet among children between 6 months to 6 years. Results: Only 9.33 % children between 6 and 71 months of age received a minimum acceptable diet. With each increase in the perceived community cohesion score (scale 0-9), a child is 1.31 times more likely to have minimum acceptable diet (95 % CI 1.14, 1.50). The odds of minimum acceptable diet were also higher among children whose mothers had primary education (2.09, 95 % CI 1.03, 2.94) as compared to illiterate mothers and in households with surplus food resources (2.72, 95 % CI 1.32, 5.58) as compared to those without surplus or deficit. In contrast, registering at an Anganwadi (government early child development) centre (odds ratio 1.34 95 % CI 0.69, 2.60) and community membership (odds ratio 0.93, 95 % CI 0.59, 1.46) were not associated with minimum acceptable diet. Conclusion: The results are consistent with what is known about the importance of maternal education and access to food resources in ensuring that children have a minimum acceptable diet. Perceived community cohesion seems to play a positive role in children’s diets. Further research needs to clarify which community characteristics and services are the most relevant, how they can better support children’s diets, and how interventions can strengthen these community characteristics and services