Biologically based multistage modeling of radiation effects

This past year we have made substantial progress in modeling the contribution of homeostatic regulation to low-dose radiation effects and carcinogenesis. We have worked to refine and apply our multistage carcinogenesis models to explicitly incorporate cell cycle states, simple and complex damage, checkpoint delay, slow and fast repair, differentiation, and apoptosis to study the effects of low-dose ionizing radiation in mouse intestinal crypts, as well as in other tissues. We have one paper accepted for publication in ''Advances in Space Research'', and another manuscript in preparation describing this work. I also wrote a chapter describing our combined cell-cycle and multistage carcinogenesis model that will be published in a book on stochastic carcinogenesis models edited by Wei-Yuan Tan. In addition, we organized and held a workshop on ''Biologically Based Modeling of Human Health Effects of Low dose Ionizing Radiation'', July 28-29, 2005 at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington. We had over 20 participants, including Mary Helen Barcellos-Hoff as keynote speaker, talks by most of the low-dose modelers in the DOE low-dose program, experimentalists including Les Redpath (and Mary Helen), Noelle Metting from DOE, and Tony Brooks. It appears that homeostatic regulation may be central to understanding low-dose radiation phenomena. The primary effects of ionizing radiation (IR) are cell killing, delayed cell cycling, and induction of mutations. However, homeostatic regulation causes cells that are killed or damaged by IR to eventually be replaced. Cells with an initiating mutation may have a replacement advantage, leading to clonal expansion of these initiated cells. Thus we have focused particularly on modeling effects that disturb homeostatic regulation as early steps in the carcinogenic process. There are two primary considerations that support our focus on homeostatic regulation. First, a number of epidemiologic studies using multistage carcinogenesis models that incorporate the ''initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion'' paradigm of carcinogenesis are indicating that promotion of initiated cells is the most important cellular mechanism driving the shape of the age specific hazard for many types of cancer. Second, we have realized that many of the genes that are modified in early stages of the carcinogenic process contribute to one or more of four general cellular pathways that confer a promotional advantage to cells when these pathways are disrupted

Characterization of edge damage induced on REBCO superconducting tape by mechanical slitting

Rare-earth barium-copper-oxide (REBCO) superconductors are high-field superconductors fabricated in a tape geometry that can be utilized in magnet applications well in excess of 20 T. Due to the multilayer architecture of the tape, delamination is one cause of mechanical failure in REBCO tapes. During a mechanical slitting step in the manufacturing process, edge cracks can be introduced into the tape. These cracks are thought to be potential initiation sites for crack propagation in the tapes when subjected to stresses in the fabrication and operation of magnet systems. We sought to understand which layers were the mechanically weakest by locating the crack initiation layer and identifying the geometrical conditions of the slitter that promoted or suppressed crack formation. The described cracking was investigated by selectively etching and characterizing each layer with scanning electron microscopy, laser confocal microscopy, and digital image analysis. Our analysis showed that the average crack lengths in the REBCO, LaMnO3 (LMO) and Al2O3 layers were 34 μm, 28 μm, and 15 μm, respectively. The total number of cracks measured in 30mmof wire length was between 3000 and 5700 depending on the layer and their crack densities were 102 cracks mm-1 for REBCO, 108 cracks mm-1 for LMO, and 183 cracks mm-1 for Al2O3. These results indicated that there are separate crack initiation mechanisms for the REBCO and the LMO layers, as detailed in the paper. With a better understanding of the crack growth behavior exhibited by REBCO tapes, the fabrication process can be improved to provide a more mechanically stable and cost-effective superconductor

Impact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000

Background: Considerable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors that started in the mid-1950s on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975–2000. Methods: A consortium of six groups of investigators used common inputs consisting of simulated cohort-wise smoking histories for the birth cohorts of 1890 through 1970 and independent models to estimate the number of US lung cancer deaths averted during 1975–2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior that began in the mid-1950s. We also estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted had tobacco control been completely effective in eliminating smoking after the Surgeon General’s first report on Smoking and Health in 1964. Results: Approximately 795,851 US lung cancer deaths were averted during the period 1975–2000: 552,574 among men and 243,277 among women. In the year 2000 alone, approximately 70,218 lung cancer deaths were averted: 44,135 among men and 26,083 among women. However, these numbers are estimated to represent approximately 32% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted during the period 1975–2000, 38% of the lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 1991–2000, and 44% of lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 2000. Conclusions: Our results reflect the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a large impact of changing smoking behaviors on lung cancer deaths, lung cancer remains a major public health problem. Continued efforts at tobacco control are critical to further reduce the burden of this disease

The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136362/1/ijc30602_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136362/2/ijc30602.pd

Comparing Benefits from Many Possible Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Programs: Extrapolating from the National Lung Screening Trial Using Comparative Modeling

Background: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that in current and former smokers aged 55 to 74 years, with at least 30 pack-years of cigarette smoking history and who had quit smoking no more than 15 years ago, 3 annual computed tomography (CT) screens reduced lung cancer-specific mortality by 20% relative to 3 annual chest X-ray screens. We compared the benefits achievable with 576 lung cancer screening programs that varied CT screen number and frequency, ages of screening, and eligibility based on smoking. Methods and Findings: We used five independent microsimulation models with lung cancer natural history parameters previously calibrated to the NLST to simulate life histories of the US cohort born in 1950 under all 576 programs. ‘Efficient’ (within model) programs prevented the greatest number of lung cancer deaths, compared to no screening, for a given number of CT screens. Among 120 ‘consensus efficient’ (identified as efficient across models) programs, the average starting age was 55 years, the stopping age was 80 or 85 years, the average minimum pack-years was 27, and the maximum years since quitting was 20. Among consensus efficient programs, 11% to 40% of the cohort was screened, and 153 to 846 lung cancer deaths were averted per 100,000 people. In all models, annual screening based on age and smoking eligibility in NLST was not efficient; continuing screening to age 80 or 85 years was more efficient. Conclusions: Consensus results from five models identified a set of efficient screening programs that include annual CT lung cancer screening using criteria like NLST eligibility but extended to older ages. Guidelines for screening should also consider harms of screening and individual patient characteristics

Comparing benefits from many possible computed tomography lung cancer screening programs: Extrapolating from the National Lung Screening Trial using comparative modeling

Background: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that in current and former smokers aged 55 to 74 years, with at least 30 pack-years of cigarette smoking history and who had quit smoking no more than 15 years ago, 3 annual computed tomography (CT) screens reduced lung cancer-specific mortality by 20% relative to 3 annual chest X-ray screens. We compared the benefits achievable with 576 lung cancer screening programs that varied CT screen number and frequency, ages of screening, and eligibility based on smoking. Methods and Findings: We used five independent microsimulation models with lung cancer natural history parameters previously calibrated to the NLST to simulate life histories of the US cohort born in 1950 under all 576 programs. 'Efficient' (within model) programs prevented the greatest number of lung cancer deaths, compared to no screening, for a given number of CT screens. Among 120 'consensus efficient' (identified as efficient across models) programs, the average starting age was 55 years, the stopping age was 80 or 85 years, the average minimum pack-years was 27, and the maximum years since quitting was 20. Among consensus efficient programs, 11% to 40% of the cohort was screened, and 153 to 846 lung cancer deaths were averted per 100,000 people. In all models, annual screening based on age and smoking eligibility in NLST was not efficient; continuing screening to age 80 or 85 years was more efficient. Conclusions: Consensus results from five models identified a set of efficient screening programs that include annual CT lung cancer screening using criteria like NLST eligibility but extended to older ages. Guidelines for screening should also consider harms of screening and individual patient characteristics

Radiofrequency Ablation of Barrett's Esophagus Reduces Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in a Comparative Modeling Analysis

No Abstract Availabl

Hyaluronic acid in human synovial effusions; A sensitive indicator of altered connective tissue cell function during inflammation

No Abstract.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/37705/1/1780090606_ftp.pd

Implications of Epigenetic Drift in Colorectal Neoplasia

NIH grants U01CA182940 (G.E. Luebeck, W.D. Hazelton, W.M. Grady, S.K. Madden, K. Curtius), U01CA199336 (G.E. Luebeck, W.D. Hazelton); Barts Charity grant 472-2300, London (K. Curtius) and UK Medical Research Council Rutherford fellowship (K. Curtius); and NIH grants (P30CA15704, U01CA152756, R01CA194663, R01CA220004, U54CA143862, P01CA077852),R.A.C.E. Charities, Cottrell Family Fund, R03CA165153, Listwin Family Foundation, Seattle Translational Tumor Research program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (S.K. Madden, M. Yu, K.T. Carter, and W.M. Grady), R01CA189184 (C. Lee, C.M. Ulrich, S.K.Madden, M. Yu, K.T. Carter, and W.M. Grady), R01CA112516, R01CA114467, R01CA120523 (C.M. Ulrich, S.K. Madden, M. Yu, K.T. Carter, and W.M. Grady), Huntsman Cancer Foundation, U01 CA206110, R01CA189184 R01CA 207371 and P30CACA042014 (C.M. Ulrich). U24CA074794 (P.A. Newcomb, S.K. Madden, M. Yu, K.T. Carter, and W.M. Grady). This material is the result of work supported in part by resources from the VA Puget Sound Health Care System and the ColoCare Study

High-Energy Radiation from Thunderstorms with ADELE: TGFs, Steps, and Glows

The biggest challenge in the study of high-energy processes in thunderstorms is getting a detector to the vicinity of the electrically active regions of a storm. The Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE) has been used to detect gamma rays from aircraft above storms and from a storm-chasing van on the ground. In August 2009, ADELE flew above Florida storms in a Gulfstream V jet, detecting the first terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) seen from a plane and continuous glows of high-energy emission above thunderclouds. The presence of these glows suggests that a gradual process of relativistic runaway and feedback may help limit the total amount of charging in thunderstorms, in contrast to the traditional view that only lightning discharges compete with the charging process. The upper limits on TGF emission from intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning from the ADELE flights demonstrated conclusively that a TGF of the sort seen from space is not associated with most lightning and not necessary to trigger it. In August 2010, observations from a van detected stepped-leader x-ray emission from at least four lightning strikes in ten days of operations. This mode of operation is therefore promising for future observations of the stepping process, although a more varied suite of instrumentation, in particular a flash-distance detector, would be useful. We will report on these results and on future possibilities for ADELE campaigns