Climate change vulnerability for species—Assessing the assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available

Livestock grazing impacts components of the breeding productivity of a common upland insectivorous passerine:Results from a long-term experiment

The intensity of pastoral management in areas of High Nature Value farming is declining in some regions of Europe but increasing in others. This affects open habitats of conservation concern, such as the British uplands, where bird species that benefit from low-intensity grazing may be most sensitive to such polarization. While experimental manipulations of livestock grazing intensities have improved our understanding of upland breeding bird responses in the short term, none have examined the long-term impacts of altered management on reproductive success. Using a replicated landscape-scale experiment that started in 2003, we investigated the effects of four grazing treatments (intensive sheep; low-intensity sheep; low-intensity mixed sheep and cattle; and no grazing) on the breeding productivity of meadow pipits Anthus pratensis, the most common upland passerine. Surveys were carried out systematically during early (2003 and 2004) and late (2015 and 2016) sampling periods of the experiment to compare the short- and long-term effects of grazing treatments on breeding density and productivity of pipits specifically, but also on the overall bird community. Pipit breeding density was lowest under low-intensity sheep grazing while the highest egg-stage nest survival was observed in the same treatment, although no significant treatment effects were detected on overall nest survival or fledgling output. There were no significant differences in treatment effects between the sampling periods on any breeding variable, but overall nest survival was lower in the later sampling period across all treatments. Breeding bird species richness differed between treatments in the later sampling period, with highest species richness in the ungrazed treatment. Synthesis and applications. Livestock grazing management can have different outcomes for different upland birds. Our results showed that, with time, meadow pipit breeding productivity tended to be higher when sheep grazing intensity was reduced and/or mixed with cattle, and lower when livestock were removed, but not significantly so. Removal of grazing, however, can significantly increase bird species richness. The long-term experiment showed an overall decline in fledglings regardless of grazing treatments, potentially a result of increased predator numbers harboured by nearby developing woodland, highlighting the importance of considering wider landscape processes in grazing management decisions.</p

Variation in abundances of common bird species associated with roads

1. The global road network, currently over 45 million lane-km in length, is expected to reach 70 million lane-km by 2050, while the number of vehicles utilising it is expected to double. Roads have been shown to affect a range of wildlife, including birds, but most studies have been relatively small scale. 2. We use data from across Great Britain to analyse the relationships between roads and the spatial distributions of bird populations. We model counts of 51 common and widespread species from the U.K. Breeding Bird Survey in relation to road exposure, which we calculated for each count site using the density, distance and traffic volume of all roads within a 5 km radius. In these models, we incorporate other factors known to affect bird populations, including agricultural intensity, human population, habitat and climate. Importantly, we also account for differences in detectability of birds near to roads. 3. The abundances of 30 species were strongly significantly related to exposure to either major or minor roads. Species were generally in higher abundances with increasing exposure to minor roads (20/28). In contrast, most significant associations between major road exposure and bird abundance were negative (7/8). 4. For species with significant effects of road exposure, we assessed how estimated abundance changed across the central 50% of road exposure experienced for each species. The mean decrease in abundance was 19% and the mean increase was 47%. These changes in bird abundance were up to half as large as those associated with increasing agricultural intensity, a factor often cited as a major cause of bird population changes. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our research shows many species to vary in abundance with increasing road exposure. This suggests that roads may modify bird populations on a national scale and that their potential as drivers of biodiversity change should not be overlooked. Our work highlights the need for appropriate mitigation of roads, particularly in areas important for avian biodiversity. This could include efforts to reduce impacts of road noise and/or collisions, such as reduced speed limits or quieter road surfaces in sensitive areas

Dietary complexity and hidden costs of prey switching in a generalist top predator

Variation in predator diet is a critical aspect of food web stability, health, and population dynamics of predator/ prey communities. Quantifying diet, particularly among cryptic species, is extremely challenging, however, and differentiation between demographic subsets of populations is often overlooked. We used prey remains and data taken postmortem from otter Lutra lutra to determine the extent to which dietary variation in a top predator was associated with biotic, spatial, and temporal factors. Biotic data (e.g., sex, weight, and length) and stomach contents were taken from 610 otters found dead across England and Wales between 1994 and 2010. Prey remains were identified to species where possible, using published keys and reference materials. Multi‐model inference followed by model prediction was applied to test for and visualize the nature of associations. Evidence for widespread decline in the consumption of eels (Anguilla anguilla ) reflected known eel population declines. An association between eel consumption and otter body condition suggested negative consequences for otter nutrition. Consumption of Cottus gobio and stickleback spp. increased, but was unlikely to compensate (there was no association with body condition). More otters with empty stomachs were found over time. Otter sex, body length, and age‐class were important biotic predictors of the prey species found, and season, region, and distance from the coast were important abiotic predictors. Our study is unique in its multivariate nature, broad spatial scale, and long‐term dataset. Inclusion of biotic data allowed us to reveal important differences in costs and benefits of different prey types, and differences between demographic subsets of the population, overlaid on spatial and temporal variation. Such complexities in otter diet are likely to be paralleled in other predators, and detailed characterization of diet should not be overlooked in efforts to conserve wild populations

A statistical comparison of spatio-temporal surface moisture patterns beneath a semi-natural grassland and permanent pasture:From drought to saturation

Some 60% of the agricultural land in the UK is grassland. This is mostly located in the wetter uplands of the west and north, with the majority intensively managed as permanent pasture. Despite its extent, there is a lack of knowledge regarding how agricultural practices have altered the hydrological behaviour of the underlying soils relative to the adjacent moorland covered by semi‐natural grassland. Near‐surface soil moisture content is an expression of the changes that have taken place and is critical in the generation of flood‐producing overland‐flows. This study aims to develop a pioneering paired‐plot approach, producing 1536 moisture measurements at each of the monitoring dates throughout the studied year, that were subsequently analysed by a comparison of frequency distributions, visual‐cum‐geostatistical investigation of spatial patterns and mixed‐effects regression modelling. The analysis demonstrated that the practices taking place in the pasture (ploughing, re‐seeding and drainage) reduced the natural diversity in moisture patterns. Compared to adjacent moorland, the topsoil dried much faster in spring with the effects requiring offset with moisture from slurry applications in summer. With the onset of autumn rains, these applications then made the topsoil wetter than the moorland, heightening the likelihood of flood‐producing overland‐flow. During the sampling within one such storm‐event, the adjacent moorland was almost as wet as the pasture with both visibly generating overland‐flow. These contrasts in soil moisture were statistically significant throughout. Further, they highlight the need to scale‐up the monitoring with numerous plot‐pairs to see if the observed highly dynamic, contrasting behaviour is present at the landscape‐scale. Such research is fundamental to designing appropriate agricultural interventions to deliver sustainable sward production for livestock or methods of mitigating overland‐flow incidence that would otherwise heighten flood‐risk or threaten water‐quality in rivers

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on UK breeding bird populations

Wet grassland wader populations in the United Kingdom have experienced severe declines over the last three decades. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact that these reserves have on bird population trends has not been experimentally evaluated, as appropriate control populations do not readily exist. In this study, we compare population trends from 1994 ‐ 2018 for five bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends using matched breeding bird survey observations. Our results showed positive effects of conservation interventions for all four wader species that these reserves aim to benefit: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata) and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). We compared reserve trends with three different counterfactuals, based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation, and found that reserve trends performed better regardless of the counterfactual used. Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large‐scale evaluation of conservation impact

Investigating the implications of shifting baseline syndrome on conservation

Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes a persistent downgrading of perceived ‘normal’ environmental conditions with every sequential generation, leading to under‐estimation of the true magnitude of long‐term environmental change on a global scale. The presence of SBS should be considered when local ecological knowledge and participatory techniques are involved in conservation target‐setting. However, despite increasing recognition of the phenomenon, there is little empirical evidence for SBS. Here we provide evidence of SBS, and the first empirical investigation of the impacts of SBS on public perceptions of conservation need. Large‐scale online questionnaires were used to collect public perceptions of long‐term biological change regarding 10 UK bird species, as well as demographic information and measures of knowledge and experience of the local environment (n = 330). A paired data approach compared social perceptions to a large‐scale longitudinal biological dataset. Using information theoretic and model selection techniques, we estimate the relative importance of multiple demographic, social and psychological predictors of SBS. We provide a framework for investigating evidence of SBS and its impacts on perceptions of conservation need for species in decline. Evidence of generational amnesia was found as an age‐related difference in perceptions of past ecological conditions. The perceptions of older participants had significantly higher agreement with biological data than the perceptions of younger participants. Our results therefore support the expectation that younger, less experienced people are less aware of historical ecological conditions and show greater evidence of SBS. We also present evidence of a negative impact of SBS on future conservation, as older people were more likely than younger people to perceive a greater need for conservation action for three declining species. Our research supports the need to encourage greater intergenerational communication and increase experience of local nature. Discovering evidence of SBS in public perceptions of species experienced within everyday life demonstrates SBS as a pervasive social issue with the potential to impact public perceptions of local nature. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article