The Evolution of the Silver Hills Volcanic Center, and Revised 40Ar/39Ar Geochronology of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles, With Implications for Island Arc Volcanism

Studying the older volcanic centers on Montserrat, Centre Hills and Silver Hills, may reveal how volcanic activity can change over long time periods (≥1 Myr), and whether the recent activity at the Soufrière Hills is typical of volcanism throughout Montserrat's history. Here, we present the first detailed mapping of the Silver Hills, the oldest and arguably least studied volcanic center on Montserrat. Volcanism at the Silver Hills was dominated by episodic andesite lava dome growth and collapse, produced Vulcanian style eruptions, and experienced periodic sector collapse events, similar to the style of volcanic activity that has been documented for the Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills. We also present an updated geochronology of volcanism on Montserrat, by revising existing ages and obtaining new 40Ar/39Ar dates and palaeomagnetic ages from marine tephra layers. We show that the centers of the Silver, Centre, and Soufrière Hills were active during at least ∼2.17–1.03 Ma, ∼1.14–0.38 Ma, and ∼0.45 Ma–present, respectively. Combined with timings of volcanism on Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe these ages suggest that ∼0.5–1 Ma is a common lifespan for volcanic centers in the Lesser Antilles. These new dates identify a previously unrecognized overlap in activity between the different volcanic centers, which appears to be a common phenomenon in island arcs. We also identify an older stage of Soufrière Hills activity ∼450–290 ka characterized by the eruption of hornblende-orthopyroxene-phyric lavas, demonstrating that the petrology of the Soufrière Hills eruptive products has changed at least twice throughout the volcano's development

Cold chain distribution capability assessment for selected markets in China

Volcanism on Montserrat (Lesser Antilles arc) has migrated southwards since the formation of the Silver Hills ~ 2.5 Ma, and has formed three successively active volcanic centres. The Centre Hills volcano was the focus of volcanism from ~ 1–0.4 Ma, before activity commenced at the currently active Soufrière Hills volcano. The history of activity at these two volcanoes provides an opportunity to investigate the pattern of volcano behaviour on an andesitic arc island over the lifetime of individual volcanoes. Here, we describe the pyroclastic stratigraphy of subaerial exposures around central Montserrat; identifying 11 thick (> 1 m) pumiceous units derived from sustained explosive eruptions of Centre Hills from ~ 0.8–0.4 Ma. Over 10 other, less well- exposed pumiceous units have also been identified. The pumice-rich units are interbedded with andesite lava breccias derived from effusive, dome-forming eruptions of Centre Hills. The stratigraphy indicates that large (up to magnitude 5) explosive eruptions occurred throughout the history of Centre Hills, alongside effusive activity. This behaviour at Centre Hills contrasts with Soufrière Hills, where deposits from sustained explosive eruptions are much less common and restricted to early stages of activity at the volcano, from ~ 175–130 ka. Subsequent eruptions at Soufriere Hills have been dominated by andesitic effusive eruptions. The bulk composition, petrography and mineral chemistry of volcanic rocks from Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills are similar throughout the history of both volcanoes, except for occasional, transient departures to different magma compositions, which mark shifts in vent location or dominant eruption style. For example, the final recorded eruption of Centre Hills, before the initiation of activity at Soufrière Hills, was more silicic than any other identified eruption on Montserrat; and the basaltic South Soufrière Hills episode marked the transition to the current stage of predominantly effusive Soufrière Hills activity. The compositional stability observed throughout the history of Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills suggests that a predominance towards effusive or explosive eruption styles is not driven by major compositional shifts of magma, but may reflect local changes in long-term magma storage conditions that characterise individual episodes (on 105 year timescales) of volcanism on Montserrat

Zpracování výsledků dotazu v prostředí GIS GRASS

Import 21/04/2006Prezenční výpůjčkaVŠB - Technická univerzita Ostrava. Fakulta elektrotechniky a informatiky. Katedra (456) informatik

Prophylaxis in healthcare workers during a pandemic: a model for a multi-centre international randomised controlled trial using Bayesian analyses

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exposed the disproportionate effects of pandemics on frontline workers and the ethical imperative to provide effective prophylaxis. We present a model for a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT) that utilises Bayesian methods to rapidly determine the efficacy or futility of a prophylactic agent. Methods We initially planned to undertake a multicentre, phase III, parallel-group, open-label RCT, to determine if hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) taken once a week was effective in preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in healthcare workers (HCW) aged ≥ 18 years in New Zealand (NZ) and Ireland. Participants were to be randomised 2:1 to either HCQ (800 mg stat then 400 mg weekly) or no prophylaxis. The primary endpoint was time to Nucleic Acid Amplification Test-proven SARS-CoV-2 infection. Secondary outcome variables included mortality, hospitalisation, intensive care unit admissions and length of mechanical ventilation. The trial had no fixed sample size or duration of intervention. Bayesian adaptive analyses were planned to occur fortnightly, commencing with a weakly informative prior for the no prophylaxis group hazard rate and a moderately informative prior on the intervention log hazard ratio centred on ‘no effect’. Stopping for expected success would be executed if the intervention had a greater than 0.975 posterior probability of reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 10%. Final success would be declared if, after completion of 8 weeks of follow-up (reflecting the long half-life of HCQ), the prophylaxis had at least a 0.95 posterior probability of reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 10%. Futility would be declared if HCQ was shown to have less than a 0.10 posterior probability of reducing acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 infection by more than 20%. Discussion This study did not begin recruitment due to the marked reduction in COVID-19 cases in NZ and concerns regarding the efficacy and risks of HCQ treatment in COVID-19. Nonetheless, the model presented can be easily adapted for other potential prophylactic agents and pathogens, and pre-established collaborative models like this should be shared and incorporated into future pandemic preparedness planning. Trial registration The decision not to proceed with the study was made before trial registration occurred

Space–time clusters for early detection of grizzly bear predation

Accurate detection and classification of predation events is important to determine predation and consumption rates by predators. However, obtaining this information for large predators is constrained by the speed at which carcasses disappear and the cost of field data collection. To accurately detect predation events, researchers have used GPS collar technology combined with targeted site visits. However, kill sites are often investigated well after the predation event due to limited data retrieval options on GPS collars (VHF or UHF downloading) and to ensure crew safety when working with large predators. This can lead to missing information from small-prey (including young ungulates) kill sites due to scavenging and general site deterioration (e.g., vegetation growth). We used a space–time permutation scan statistic (STPSS) clustering method (SaTScan) to detect predation events of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) fitted with satellite transmitting GPS collars. We used generalized linear mixed models to verify predation events and the size of carcasses using spatiotemporal characteristics as predictors. STPSS uses a probability model to compare expected cluster size (space and time) with the observed size. We applied this method retrospectively to data from 2006 to 2007 to compare our method to random GPS site selection. In 2013–2014, we applied our detection method to visit sites one week after their occupation. Both datasets were collected in the same study area. Our approach detected 23 of 27 predation sites verified by visiting 464 random grizzly bear locations in 2006–2007, 187 of which were within space–time clusters and 277 outside. Predation site detection increased by 2.75 times (54 predation events of 335 visited clusters) using 2013–2014 data. Our GLMMs showed that cluster size and duration predicted predation events and carcass size with high sensitivity (0.72 and 0.94, respectively). Coupling GPS satellite technology with clusters using a program based on space–time probability models allows for prompt visits to predation sites. This enables accurate identification of the carcass size and increases fieldwork efficiency in predation studies