Hydrogeologic Analysis of a Complex Aquifer System and Impacts of Changes in Agricultural Practices on Nitrate Concentrations in a Municipal Well Field: Woodstock, Ontario

The Thornton Well Field, located in an area of dominantly (~80%) agricultural land-use, produces ~50% of the drinking water for the city of Woodstock. Since the mid 1990?s nitrate concentrations in some of the supply wells are above the Maximum Allowable Concentration (MAC) of 10mg-N/L. The source of the nitrate is believed to be from agricultural fertilizing practices. As response to this problem, the County of Oxford purchased 111 hectares of farmland within the capture zone of the Thornton Well Field. This land is rented back to farmers with restrictions placed on the amount of nitrate fertilizer that can be applied in an attempt to sustainably reduce the nitrate concentrations in the ThorntonWell Field below MAC. The objective of this thesis is to improve the site conceptual hydrogeologic model, both at a spatial scale suitable for numerical analysis through regional groundwater flow modelling (representative distance ~9km) and at a smaller scale (representative distance ~2km) for nitrate transport modelling in the vicinity of the Thornton Well Field and the purchased land. Field investigations aimed to support the site hydrogeologic model involved drilling, geologic logging, and instrumentation of a 72m deep borehole completed to bedrock in the center of the nitrate plume, at the border of the farmland under consideration. The shallow subsurface features encountered during this initial drilling operation were tracked below the farm fields with geophysical tools and additional drilling and core logging throughout the field site. Transient hydraulic head observations in combination with on-site precipitation measurements were used to indicate where a hydraulic connection between ground surface and deeper layers exists, which allow rapid infiltration to occur into a glaciofluvial outwash channel which was identified as one important pathway for nitrate transport to the Thornton Well Field. One receptor at the end of that pathway, the screen of the supply Well 01, was depth-discrete profiled for water inflow and nitrate concentrations to obtain better characteristics of the receptor. A method was developed to estimate the nitrate mass stored in the unsaturated zone below Parcel B, permitting an estimation of the time frame required for flushing the nitrate out of this zone, and the anticipated effects on nitrate concentrations in the supply wells. The spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations in the unsaturated zone and in the aquifer units was analyzed. It was found that the nitrate concentration within the unsaturated zone below Parcel B is ~16mg-N/L, resulting in a total nitrogen mass of ~20t within that zone. It was shown that significant reductions (~10%) in nitrate concentrations in the supply wells of the Thornton Well Field can be achieved, assuming zero nitrate mass influx into the domain from Parcel B. A comprehensive data base was developed to organize, manage, and analyze all site measured data for that purpose, and regional hydrogeologic data from the MOE Water Well Record Database. The contents of this database in conjunction with the MOE Water Well Record Database were used to construct a three-dimensional digital representation of the hydrostratigraphic units at a regional and at a local scale. This three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic unit spatial distribution along with surface watershed information and potentiometric surfaces of the various aquifer units will be used to define a suitable spatial domain and associated boundary conditions for future modelling efforts. This hydrostratigraphic model will serve as basis for predicting the effects of agricultural land-use changes within the capture zone of the Thornton Well Field (Parcel B) on the nitrate concentrations in the supply wells of the Thornton Well Field

Estimating a Representative Value and Proportion of True Zeros for Censored Analytical Data with Applications to Contaminated Site Assessment

This paper demonstrates a maximum likelihood (ML)-based approach to derive representative (“best guess”) contaminant concentrations from data with censored values (e.g., less than the detection limit). The method represents an advancement over existing techniques because it is capable of estimating the proportion of measurements that are true zeros and incorporating varying levels of censorship (e.g., sample specific detection limits, changes through time in method detection). The ability of the method to estimate the proportion of true zeros is validated using precipitation data. The stability and flexibility of the method are demonstrated with stochastic simulation, a sensitivity analysis, and unbiasedness analysis including varying numbers of significant digits. A key aspect of this paper is the application of the statistical analysis to real site rock core contaminant concentration data collected within a plume at two locations using high resolution depth-discrete sampling. Comparison of the representative values for concentrations at each location along the plume center-line shows a larger number of true zeros and generally lower concentrations at the downgradient location according to the conceptual site model, leading to improved estimates of attenuation with distance and/or time and associated confidence; this is not achievable using deterministic methods. The practical relevance of the proposed method is that it provides an improved basis for evaluating change (spatial, temporal, or both) in environmental systems