Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97--114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States. We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980--2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS519 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Unidentified EGRET Sources and the Extragalactic Gamma-Ray Background

The large majority of EGRET point sources remain to this day without an identified low-energy counterpart. Whatever the nature of the EGRET unidentified sources, faint unresolved objects of the same class must have a contribution to the diffuse gamma-ray background: if most unidentified objects are extragalactic, faint unresolved sources of the same class contribute to the background, as a distinct extragalactic population; on the other hand, if most unidentified sources are Galactic, their counterparts in external galaxies will contribute to the unresolved emission from these systems. Understanding this component of the gamma-ray background, along with other guaranteed contributions from known sources, is essential in any attempt to use gamma-ray observations to constrain exotic high-energy physics. Here, we follow an empirical approach to estimate whether a potential contribution of unidentified sources to the extragalactic gamma-ray background is likely to be important, and we find that it is. Additionally, we comment on how the anticipated GLAST measurement of the diffuse gamma-ray background will change, depending on the nature of the majority of these sources.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in proceedings of "The Multi-Messenger Approach to High Energy Gamma-Ray Sources", Barcelona, 4-7 July 2006; comments welcom

HATS-18 b: An Extreme Short--Period Massive Transiting Planet Spinning Up Its Star

We report the discovery by the HATSouth network of HATS-18 b: a 1.980 +/- 0.077 Mj, 1.337 +0.102 -0.049 Rj planet in a 0.8378 day orbit, around a solar analog star (mass 1.037 +/- 0.047 Msun, and radius 1.020 +0.057 -0.031 Rsun) with V=14.067 +/- 0.040 mag. The high planet mass, combined with its short orbital period, implies strong tidal coupling between the planetary orbit and the star. In fact, given its inferred age, HATS-18 shows evidence of significant tidal spin up, which together with WASP-19 (a very similar system) allows us to constrain the tidal quality factor for Sun-like stars to be in the range 6.5 <= lg(Q*/k_2) <= 7 even after allowing for extremely pessimistic model uncertainties. In addition, the HATS-18 system is among the best systems (and often the best system) for testing a multitude of star--planet interactions, be they gravitational, magnetic or radiative, as well as planet formation and migration theories.Comment: Submitted. 12 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

Prospectus, December 7, 1976

VACCINATIONS GIVEN: 580 RECEIVE SWINE FLU SHOTS; 8 cents asked for: Tax vote go-ahead given; Display case almost ready; Reid will leave: Stu-Go busy before break; PC news in brief: Christian booktable, Get away…, Possible Hawks-Flyers tickets, Parkland Sociological Association, Skiing anyone?; To the Students of Parkland College...; Letters to the editor: \u27Be true\u27, \u27Toys for Tots\u27 thanks, Letter of thanks, Will piano haul students from annex of learning?; \u27No Vacancy\u27 at Bethlehem Ho-Jo: New version of Nativity told; Washington clamps down: Vets must attend to collect benefits; Prospectus wins; Save yourself: Still time for \u27W,\u27 not \u27F\u27; ALS courses available at Lab; It\u27s \u27sno trouble: Crew keeps campus clear; Apple Tree auditions through Thursday; Workshop-Tea Wed.; Mark Twain: Cast \u27live\u27 their characters; Students, teacher find that bird in hand no easy task; Krannert lists Dec.; Paxton hosts chamber music; West Springfield Avenue\u27s new businesses attract Parkland students; Parkland College 1976-1977 Basketball Schedule; Cagers play seven games before Christmas; Chillbains?: Getting here - the hard way; Dotted landscape: Bugged by red beetles at PC; PC campus site is named CCDC award winner; Classifieds; Sports editorial: Moeller - the program he\u27ll have to change; 1-2 for year: Cobras go against Olney tonight; Women\u27s Basketball Schedule; Lake County new team: Women\u27s first opponents \u27unknown\u27https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1976/1000/thumbnail.jp

HATS-1b: The first transiting planet discovered by the hatsouth survey

We report the discovery of HATS-1b, a transiting extrasolar planet orbiting the moderately bright V = 12.05 G dwarf star GSC 6652-00186, and the first planet discovered by HATSouth, a global network of autonomous wide-field telescopes. HATS-1b has a period of P ≈ 3.4465 days, mass of Mp ≈ 1.86 MJ, and radius of Rp ≈ 1.30 RJ. The host star has a mass of 0.99 M⊙ and radius of 1.04 R⊙. The discovery light curve of HATS-1b has near-continuous coverage over several multi-day timespans, demonstrating the power of using a global network of telescopes to discover transiting planets.Development of the HATSouth project was funded by NSF MRI grant NSF/AST-0723074, operations are supported by NASA grant NNX09AB29G, and follow-up observations received partial support from grant NSF/AST-1108686. Followup observations with the ESO 2.2 m/FEROS instrument were performed under MPI guaranteed time (P087.A-9014(A), P088.A-9008(A), P089.A-9008(A)) and Chilean time (P087.C- 0508(A)). A.J. acknowledges support from Fondecyt project 1095213, Ministry of Economy ICM Nuclei P07-021-F and P10-022-F, Anillo ACT-086 and BASAL CATA PFB-06. V.S. acknowledges support form BASAL CATA PFB-06. M.R. acknowledges support from a Fondencyt postdoctoral fellowship N 3120097 and contributions from the ALMA-CONICYT FUND Project N 31090015. R.B. and N.E. acknowledge support from Fondecyt project 1095213. Work at the Australian National University is supported by ARC Laureate Fellowship Grant FL0992131. We acknowledge the use of the AAVSO Photometric All-Sky Survey (APASS), funded by the Robert Martin Ayers Sciences Fund, and the SIMBAD database, operated at CDS, Strasbourg, France

HATS-5b: A transiting hot saturn from the HATsouth survey

We report the discovery of HATS-5b, a transiting hot Saturn orbiting a G-type star, by the HATSouth survey. HATS-5b has a mass of Mp 0.24 MJ, radius of Rp 0.91 R J, and transits its host star with a period of P 4.7634 days. The radius of HATS-5b is consistent with both theoretical and empirical models. The host star has a V-band magnitude of 12.6, mass of 0.94 M ⊙, and radius of 0.87 R. The relatively high scale height of HATS-5b and the bright, photometrically quiet host star make this planet a favorable target for future transmission spectroscopy follow-up observations. We reexamine the correlations in radius, equilibrium temperature, and metallicity of the close-in gas giants and find hot Jupiter-mass planets to exhibit the strongest dependence between radius and equilibrium temperature. We find no significant dependence in radius and metallicity for the close-in gas giant population.Development of the HATSouth project was funded by NSF MRI grant NSF/AST-0723074, operations are supported by NASA grant NNX12AH91H, and follow-up observations receive partial support from grant NSF/AST-1108686. Work at the Australian National University is supported by ARC Laureate Fellowship Grant FL0992131. A.J. acknowledges support from FONDECYT project 1130857, BASAL CATA PFB-06, and projects IC120009 “Millennium Institute of Astrophysics (MAS)” and P10-022-F of the Millennium Science Initiative, Chilean Ministry of Economy. V.S. acknowledges support form BASAL CATA PFB-06. M.R. acknowledges support from FONDECYT postdoctoral fellowship No3120097. R.B. and N.E. acknowledge support from CONICYT-PCHA/Doctorado Nacional and Fondecyt project 1130857. We acknowledge the use of the AAVSO Photometric All-Sky Survey (APASS), funded by the Robert Martin Ayers Sciences Fund, and the SIMBAD database, operated at CDS, Strasbourg, France. Operations at the MPG/ESO 2.2 m telescope are jointly performed by the Max Planck Gesellschaft and the European Southern Observatory. Australian access to the Magellan Telescopes was supported through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy of the Australian Federal Government

Connection between the Accretion Disk and Jet in the Radio Galaxy 3C 111

We present the results of extensive multi-frequency monitoring of the radio galaxy 3C 111 between 2004 and 2010 at X-ray (2.4--10 keV), optical (R band), and radio (14.5, 37, and 230 GHz) wave bands, as well as multi-epoch imaging with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at 43 GHz. Over the six years of observation, significant dips in the X-ray light curve are followed by ejections of bright superluminal knots in the VLBA images. This shows a clear connection between the radiative state near the black hole, where the X-rays are produced, and events in the jet. The X-ray continuum flux and Fe line intensity are strongly correlated, with a time lag shorter than 90 days and consistent with zero. This implies that the Fe line is generated within 90 light-days of the source of the X-ray continuum. The power spectral density function of X-ray variations contains a break, with steeper slope at shorter timescales. The break timescale of 13 (+12,-6) days is commensurate with scaling according to the mass of the central black hole based on observations of Seyfert galaxies and black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs). The data are consistent with the standard paradigm, in which the X-rays are predominantly produced by inverse Compton scattering of thermal optical/UV seed photons from the accretion disk by a distribution of hot electrons --- the corona --- situated near the disk. Most of the optical emission is generated in the accretion disk due to reprocessing of the X-ray emission. The relationships that we have uncovered between the accretion disk and the jet in 3C 111, as well as in the FR I radio galaxy 3C 120 in a previous paper, support the paradigm that active galactic nuclei and Galactic BHXRBs are fundamentally similar, with characteristic time and size scales proportional to the mass of the central black holeComment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 18 pages, 17 figures, 11 tables (full machine readable data-tables online in ApJ website

Enduring science: Three decades of observing the Northeast Atlantic from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO)

Until the 1980s, the deep sea was generally considered to be a particularly stable environment, free from major temporal variations (Sanders, 1968). Studies in the abyssal northeast Atlantic by Billett et al. (1983), and subsequently Lampitt (1985) discovered seasonal pulses of surface primary production-derived particulate organic matter (phytodetritus), and hence carbon, at abyssal depths. These early observations were subsequently extended to the central oceanic region of the NE Atlantic (Pfannkuche, 1993; Thiel et al., 1989), and prompted the establishment of more concerted time series studies in the Porcupine Abyssal Plain area. Today, the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP–SO) is a multidisciplinary open-ocean time series site in the NE Atlantic (48°50′N 16°30′W, 4850 m water depth; Fig. 1), focused on the study of connections between the surface and deep ocean. In situ measurements of climatically and environmentally relevant variables have been made for more than 30 years. This represents an exceptionally long time series - a recent compilation of biological time series data, across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms, indicates an average duration of only 13-years (Dornelas et al., 2018). Long-term time series in the deep sea are rare, particularly those collecting data from surface to seabed. The PAP-SO is one of two abyssal long-term time series sites globally (Smith et al. 2015), the other being a thirty-year time series at Station M in the northeastern Pacific Ocean (34°50′N, 123°00′W, ~4000 m water depth), maintained by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (Smith et al., 2020). This ‘sibling’ abyssal time series site also aims to understand the connections between the surface ocean and the seabed, using many similar techniques (Smith et al., 2017), facilitating comparisons between the two sites (e.g. Durden et al., 2019; Durden et al., 2020a; Laguionie-Marchais et al., 2013; Smith et al., 2009). Another source of extended comparison is the 21 year time series Long-Term Ecological Research Observatory HAUSGARTEN, Frontiers in Arctic Marine Monitoring (FRAM) in the Fram Strait between the North Atlantic and the central Arctic Ocean (78.5°N–80°N, 05°W–11°E, 250–5500 m water depth), maintained by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Soltwedel et al., 2016; Soltwedel et al., 2005). Much of our understanding of temporal variation in the deep sea, and connections between the surface ocean and the seabed have been derived from research conducted at these observatories

HATS-17b: A TRANSITING COMPACT WARM JUPITER in A 16.3 DAY CIRCULAR ORBIT

We report the discovery of HATS-17b, the first transiting warm Jupiter of the HATSouth network. HATS-17b transits its bright (V = 12.4) G-type (${M}_{\star }$ = $1.131\pm 0.030$ ${M}_{\odot }$, ${R}_{\star }$ = ${1.091}_{-0.046}^{+0.070}$ ${R}_{\odot }$) metal-rich ([Fe/H] = +0.3 dex) host star in a circular orbit with a period of P = $16.2546$ days. HATS-17b has a very compact radius of $0.777\pm 0.056$ ${R}_{{\rm{J}}}$ given its Jupiter-like mass of $1.338\pm 0.065$ ${M}_{{\rm{J}}}$. Up to 50% of the mass of HATS-17b may be composed of heavy elements in order to explain its high density with current models of planetary structure. HATS-17b is the longest period transiting planet discovered to date by a ground-based photometric survey, and is one of the brightest transiting warm Jupiter systems known. The brightness of HATS-17 will allow detailed follow-up observations to characterize the orbital geometry of the system and the atmosphere of the planet

Depression and sickness behavior are Janus-faced responses to shared inflammatory pathways

It is of considerable translational importance whether depression is a form or a consequence of sickness behavior. Sickness behavior is a behavioral complex induced by infections and immune trauma and mediated by pro-inflammatory cytokines. It is an adaptive response that enhances recovery by conserving energy to combat acute inflammation. There are considerable phenomenological similarities between sickness behavior and depression, for example, behavioral inhibition, anorexia and weight loss, and melancholic (anhedonia), physio-somatic (fatigue, hyperalgesia, malaise), anxiety and neurocognitive symptoms. In clinical depression, however, a transition occurs to sensitization of immuno-inflammatory pathways, progressive damage by oxidative and nitrosative stress to lipids, proteins, and DNA, and autoimmune responses directed against self-epitopes. The latter mechanisms are the substrate of a neuroprogressive process, whereby multiple depressive episodes cause neural tissue damage and consequent functional and cognitive sequelae. Thus, shared immuno-inflammatory pathways underpin the physiology of sickness behavior and the pathophysiology of clinical depression explaining their partially overlapping phenomenology. Inflammation may provoke a Janus-faced response with a good, acute side, generating protective inflammation through sickness behavior and a bad, chronic side, for example, clinical depression, a lifelong disorder with positive feedback loops between (neuro)inflammation and (neuro)degenerative processes following less well defined triggers