What features make Pocket Beaches unique in Terms of Coastal Processes?

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Peer Review of the Christchurch Coastal Hazard Assessment Report

This review reports findings from the peer review panel (‘the Panel’) assessment of the Tonkin & Taylor Ltd (2015) report: Coastal Hazard Assessment – Stage Two (‘the Report’). The Panel were asked to address four overarching questions in this review (‘the Review’), covering both the science and legal context of the report. These were (i) Does the report represent good science?; (ii) Are the findings still relevant in terms of new research?; (iii) Has the report taken account of relevant statutory policy documents in providing technical or expert advice (refer to Appendix E GHD TOR as a guide)?; and (iv) Is the report and its findings appropriate for its intended purpose - to inform planning for future land use decisions (all referred to as Appendix E GHD Bundle of Documents for full purpose statements)? The Panel found that the Report’s purpose went beyond the technical assessment of areas subject to coastal hazards as required under Policy 24 of the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement (2010) (‘NZCPS’). Requiring mapping suitable to be included in the district plan should have required draft mapping. Such a technical exercise constitutes the first scientific stage in the process of eventually producing maps which are suitable for inclusion in the Proposed Christchurch Replacement District Plan (CRDP). This technical stage should be followed by adaptive planning and application of a precautionary approach identified in Policies 3, 25 and 26 NZCPS before such maps are finalised. Notwithstanding, the Panel finds that the Report could, and should, constitute a suitable and robust technical basis on which to proceed towards the next stage of development of coastal hazard maps for the district of Christchurch after recommended modifications are made. This Review outlines recommendations for work that should be completed before the results of the Report are used to inform the next stages in establishing coastal hazard provisions for the CRDP. We also make suggestions for future work that could be incorporated into the first reassessment of the coastal hazard zones (planned to occur in around 10 years’ time). To be clear, the recommendations are the only work that the Panel indicates needs to be done now. Positive aspects of the Report included spatial data as requested by CCC on areas susceptible to coastal hazards, including the future timeframes of 2065 and 2115. It included the coastal settlements located on unconsolidated shorelines within CCC’s jurisdictional boundaries. The Report also gave close attention to the documents that are directly relevant to an exercise of this technical kind, namely MfE (2008b) (shortly to be updated), and Ramsay et al (2012). The Report met with what might be considered truncated time frames for a technical exercise encompassing coastal erosion and inundation over many open coast and harbour sites. The Report did not consult the community, nor was this within its Terms of Reference. Community consultation is not a requirement in Table I of the Ramsay et al (2012) good practice guide for this technical stage but rather is a requirement for the subsequent adaptive planning stage. Page 1 of 75 The Report was based on a single IPCC scenario RCP8.5, which is commonly used in hazard assessments. However, the subsequent adaptive stage of coastal hazard zone mapping will benefit from considering a range of scenarios. Thus, the Panel recommends that additional work is conducted to produce coastal hazard assessments for more than one IPCC scenario. Regarding the open coast Coastal Erosion Hazard Zones (CEHZ), the Panel endorses a probabilistic approach, but recommends that the analysis use more appropriate probability distributions than the triangular distributions used in the Report. The open coast CEHZ is also dependent on the Waimakariri River sediment supply. The Panel recommends that the open coast CEHZ is reassessed for a range of sediment budget scenarios - with the current ‘no change’ scenario forming the middle scenario. This can readily be done with the probabilistic modelling approach. In assessing the Coastal Inundation Hazard Zone (CIHZ) for the Open Coast (New Brighton, Sumner, Taylors Mistake) and for the harbour environments of Lyttelton and Akaroa, overall the Panel conclude that the simple ‘building block bathtub’ approach used is acceptable. In assessing the harbour CIHZ, however, the Panel acknowledges that the assumption that all components concurrently reach extreme values is conservative. The Panel suggests that the likelihood of concurrence of extreme waves and coincidence of peak wave setup and wind setup be investigated for inclusion in the next (i.e. ‘10 years’ into the future) reassessment. For the Avon- Heathcote Estuary and Brooklands Lagoon CIHZ, TUFLOW hydrodynamic modelling is used in the Report, but does not consider the effects of river baseflows and concurrent rainfall. The Panel suggests that river baseflows and rainfall, and the influence of climate change on them, be incorporated in the next reassessment. The indicated coastal erosion hazard zone CEHZ for all harbour sites is not a robust indication of the likely erosion hazard for these specific areas. The Panel recommends that they are re-assessed with more attention to detail and on-ground inspections. The ‘high tide translation’ method approach should not be used and only the ‘equilibrium profile’ values considered. The Report acknowledged the occurrence of ground elevation changes with the earthquakes and appropriately uses the 2011 LiDAR survey for baseline ground elevations. The Report did not assess earthquake-induced changes in groundwater depths and should not do so as this separate exercise is in the area of responsibility of EQC. NZCPS Policy 24(1)(a)-(h) is the only NZCPS provision relevant to a technical exercise at the first stage in identifying the coastal environment potentially affected by coastal hazard risk and the likely effects of climate change including sea level rise. It was not identified in the Tonkin & Taylor Terms of Reference for the Report, and should have been. Page 2 of 75 NZCPS Objective 5 and other relevant policies – Policy 3 Precautionary approach, Policy 25 Subdivision, use and development in areas of coastal hazard risk, and Policy 27 Strategies for protecting significant existing development from coastal hazard risk, and its consequences, are all relevant to the next stages of providing mapping of such areas to a sufficient standard to be included in the CRDP – stages and mapping to be defined with the involvement of the community and stakeholders. An evaluation required under s 32 RMA is only undertaken after information provided by CCC and other experts are brought together to further inform the community, stakeholders and CCC officials on such matters as cost, benefit and the other issues identified in Appendix B. This is to inform through a process of adaptive management the evaluation report for CCC to approve under s 32 sometime in the future. The hazard maps generated from the results of the Report should be withdrawn for now until the final mapping is concluded. The hazard lines may end up being reinforced after this stage but in the meantime the Coastal Hazard Zones (CHZ) formerly established by ECan may suffice as an interim measure for the open coast, but these do not apply to most of the harbour coasts. Overall, it is recommended that CCC and ECan work more closely together to develop such information resources as are needed for the coastal hazard assessment and community considerations of adaptive management pathways as part of an integrated approach to coastal management

Lessons from using iPads to understand young children's creativity

This paper explores how iPads can be used as part of a child-centred data collection approach to understanding young children’s creativity. Evidence is presented from a pilot study about 3- to 5-year-old children’s creative play. Researchers’ reflective accounts of children’s engagement with iPad video diaries and free to use apps were logged across two early educational settings over a three-month period. Findings suggest that iPads offer a mechanism to allow children to express their creative play and to encourage involvement in the research process. However, bespoke research software to use with early years children is required to improve this process

Beachgoers' ability to identify rip currents at a beach in situ

Rip currents (“rips”) are the leading cause of drowning on surf beaches worldwide. A major contributing factor is that many beachgoers are unable to identify rip currents. Previous research has attempted to quantify beachgoers' rip identification ability using photographs of rip currents without identifying whether this usefully translates into an ability to identify a rip current in situ at the beach. This study is the first to compare beachgoers ability to identify rip currents in photographs and in situ at a beach in New Zealand (Muriwai Beach) where a channel rip current was present. Only 22 % of respondents were able to identify the in situ rip current. The highest rates of success were for males (33 %), New Zealand residents (25 %), and local beach users (29 %). Of all respondents who were successful at identifying the rip current in situ, 62 % were active surfers/bodyboarders, and 28 % were active beach swimmers. Of the respondents who were able to identify a rip current in two photographs, only 34 % were able to translate this into a successful in situ rip identification, which suggests that the ability to identify rip currents by beachgoers is worse than reported by previous studies involving photographs. This study highlights the difficulty of successfully identifying a rip current in reality and that photographs are not necessarily a useful means of teaching individuals to identify rip currents. It advocates for the use of more immersive and realistic education strategies, such as the use of virtual reality headsets showing moving imagery (videos) of rip currents in order to improve rip identification ability

Light-intensity physical activity is associated with adiposity in adolescent females

peer-reviewedIntroduction: Sedentary behavior (SB) research has relied on accelerometer thresholds to distinguish between sitting/lying time (SLT) and light-intensity physical activity (LIPA). Such methods may misclassify SLT, standing time (StT), and LIPA. This study examines the association between directly measured SB, physical activity (PA), and adiposity in an adolescent female sample. Methods: Female adolescents (n = 195; mean age, 15.7 yr (SD, 0.9)) had body mass index (BMI) (median, 21.7 kg.m(-2) (interquartile range, 5.2 kg.m(-2))) and four-site sum of skinfolds (median, 62.0 mm; interquartile range, 37.1 mm) measured and wore an activPAL (TM) activity monitor for 7 d. SLT, StT, breaks in SLT, and bouts of SLT = 30 min were determined from activPAL outputs. A threshold of 2997 counts per 15 s determined moderate-to-vigorous PA. All remaining time was quantified as LIPA. Mixed linear regression models examined associations between PA variables, SB variables, and adiposity. Results: Participants spent a mean of 65.3% (SD, 7.1) of the waking day in SLT, 23.0% (SD, 5.3) in StT, 5.6% (SD, 1.5) in LIPA, and 6.1% (SD, 2.4) in moderate-to-vigorous PA. Significant effects for the percentage of LIPA (which excluded StT) with both BMI (beta = -4.38, P = 0.0006) and sum of skinfolds (beta = -4.05, P = 0.006) were identified. Significant effects for breaks in SLT with BMI (beta = -0.30, P = 0.04) were also observed. No additional significant associations were found between activity measures and adiposity. Conclusions: Increased LIPA (excluding StT) and breaks in SLT were negatively associated with adiposity in this sample, independent of age. Interventional work should examine whether reducing SLT through breaks and increasing LIPA may prevent increases in adiposity in adolescent females.ACCEPTEDpeer-reviewe

Mortality surveillance and verbal autopsy strategies: experiences, challenges and lessons learnt in Papua New Guinea.

Full notification of deaths and compilation of good quality cause of death data are core, sequential and essential components of a functional civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system. In collaboration with the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), trial mortality surveillance activities were established at sites in Alotau District in Milne Bay Province, Tambul-Nebilyer District in Western Highlands Province and Talasea District in West New Britain Province.Provincial Health Authorities trialled strategies to improve completeness of death notification and implement an automated verbal autopsy methodology, including use of different notification agents and paper or mobile phone methods. Completeness of death notification improved from virtually 0% to 20% in Talasea, 25% and 75% using mobile phone and paper notification strategies, respectively, in Alotau, and 69% in Tambul-Nebilyer. We discuss the challenges and lessons learnt with implementing these activities in PNG, including logistical considerations and incentives.Our experience indicates that strategies to maximise completeness of notification should be tailored to the local context, which in PNG includes significant geographical, cultural and political diversity. We report that health workers have great potential to improve the CRVS programme in PNG through managing the collection of notification and verbal autopsy data. In light of our findings, and in consultation with the main government CRVS stakeholders and the National CRVS Committee, we make recommendations regarding the requirements at each level of the health system to optimise mortality surveillance in order to generate the essential health intelligence required for policy and planning

Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence. METHODS: Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition. FINDINGS: Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data. INTERPRETATION: The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG.This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies

Educational intervention improves anticoagulation control in atrial fibrillation patients:the TREAT randomised trial

Background: Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), most commonly with warfarin, requires maintenance of a narrow therapeutic target (INR 2.0 to 3.0) and is often poorly controlled in practice. Poor patient-understanding surrounding AF and its’ treatment may contribute to patient’s willingness to adhere to recommendations. Method: A theory-driven intervention, developed using patient interviews and focus groups, consisting of a one-off group session (1-6 patients) utilising an ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, educational booklet, self-monitoring diary and worksheet, was compared in a randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN93952605) against usual care, with patient postal follow-ups at 1, 2, 6, and 12-months. Ninety-seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to intervention (n=46, mean age (SD) 72.0 (8.2), 67.4% men), or usual care (n=51, mean age (SD) 73.7 (8.1), 62.7% men), stratified by age, sex, and recruitment centre. Primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR); secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life, anxiety/depression, beliefs about medication, and illness perceptions. Main findings: Intervention patients had significantly higher TTR than usual care at 6-months (76.2% vs. 71.3%; p=0.035); at 12-months these differences were not significant (76.0% vs. 70.0%; p=0.44). Knowledge increased significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but there were no differences between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At 6-months, knowledge scores predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Patients’ scores on subscales representing their perception of the general harm and overuse of medication, as well as the perceived necessity of their AF specific medications predicted TTR at 6- and 12-months. Conclusions: A theory-driven educational intervention significantly improves TTR in AF patients initiating warfarin during the first 6-months. Adverse clinical outcomes may potentially be reduced by improving patients’ understanding of the necessity of warfarin and reducing their perception of treatment harm. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious and safe treatment