Local- and landscape-scale management for threatened breeding wader populations

Persistent declines of widespread, formerly common species are threatening global biodiversity and ecosystem services, but actions to tackle such declines have so far been insufficient. New strategies are required to facilitate species recovery and must include targeted actions capable of boosting low demographic rates (survival and/or productivity). A group of species for which such actions are increasingly required are waders Charadriiforms spp., of which the Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata is a particularly widespread but vulnerable species, with unsustainably low rates of breeding productivity contributing to ongoing population declines across Europe. In this thesis, intensive, field-based monitoring of demographic variation in a lowland curlew population in Breckland, eastern England, is used to inform the development of conceptual frameworks and simulation models to identify appropriate conservation actions and explore the benefits that such approaches could deliver. Curlew breed at very low densities across a range of habitats in Breckland, but consistently high rates of nest predation across the landscape mean that sustainable levels of breeding productivity were not achieved in any of the four study years. However, access to cover vegetation (> 40 cm height) was associated with an increased probability of chicks fledging, and the use and benefits of cover vegetation increased with chick age. Most curlew in Breckland breed in open, grassland habitats, but breeding successes were more frequent for the few curlew breeding in arable-dominated areas, highlighting the need for habitat-specific conservation actions. Simulation modelling suggested that the most efficient and effective actions to boost curlew breeding productivity would involve a combination of predator-exclusion fencing and maintenance or provision of cover vegetation in the few remaining areas with large numbers of breeding curlew. Such actions are likely to require multi-stakeholder nature recovery programmes to save this iconic but increasingly threatened species

Compactness vs. Sprawl Revisited: Converging Views

This paper examines the relative merits of compact cities or urban sprawl (suburban settlement patterns) as a spatial solution to environmental problems (such as climate control), automobile dependence, economic development, infrastructure costs and the quality of urban life

A novel class of CoA-transferase involved in short-chain fatty acid metabolism in butyrate-producing human colonic bacteria

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Nest survival of threatened Eurasian Curlew (Numenius arquata) breeding at low densities across a human-modified landscape

Targeted management actions to boost key demographic rates can help to restore rare and localised populations but are increasingly required to stabilise or reverse declines of formerly common and widespread species. Many breeding wader populations across Europe are declining because of unsustainably low rates of productivity, and the conservation tools designed to boost wader breeding productivity have been most effectively used for semi-colonial species within protected areas. Targeted management for wader species that breed at low densities across human-modified landscapes, such as the rapidly declining Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata, is likely to be more challenging. Here, we quantify variation in curlew nest survival in order to explore how management could be targeted to boost this key component of breeding productivity. Up to 80 pairs of Eurasian Curlew were monitored annually between 2019 and 2021 in eight locations across Breckland, eastern England, where nesting densities range from < 1 to ca.7 pairs km-2. For 136 nests across grassland- and arable-dominated sites, the majority of failure (86%) was caused by (primarily nocturnal) predation and the mean probability of surviving incubation (PSI) for all hatched or predated nests (127) was ca. 0.25. Nest survival showed little annual or seasonal variation but did vary slightly between sites, however, this spatial variation was not clearly related to management conditions or nest concealment at these sites. Fencing to exclude mammalian nest predators can be effective for waders, but too few Eurasian Curlews currently nest within fenced areas in Breckland to produce observable effects. Fencing the few sites with high nesting densities could potentially double the number of chicks hatched each year within the study area, but landscape-scale actions to reduce predator impacts on nests and chicks are likely to be needed to maintain breeding numbers in the wider countryside

Subarctic afforestation: Effects of forest plantations on ground-nesting birds in lowland Iceland

Planting forests is a commonly suggested measure to mitigate climate change. The resulting changes in habitat structure can greatly influence the diversity and abundance of pre-existing wildlife. Understanding these consequences is key for avoiding unintended impacts of afforestation on habitats and populations of conservation concern. Afforestation in lowland Iceland has been gaining momentum in recent years and further increases are planned. Iceland supports internationally important breeding populations of several ground-nesting, migratory bird species that mostly breed in open habitats. If afforestation impacts the distribution and abundance of these species, the consequences may be apparent throughout their non-breeding ranges across Europe and Africa. To quantify the effects of plantation forests on the abundance and distribution of ground-nesting birds (in particular waders, Charadriiformes), surveys were conducted on 161 transects (surrounding 118 plantations) perpendicular to forest edges throughout Iceland. The resulting variation in density with distance from plantation was used to estimate the likely changes in bird numbers resulting from future afforestation plans, and to explore the potential effects of different planting configuration (size and number of forest patches) scenarios. Of seven wader species, densities of five (golden plover Pluvialis apricaria, whimbrel Numenius phaeopus, oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus, dunlin Calidris alpina and black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa) in the 200 m surrounding plantations were just under half of those further away (up to 700 m). Redshank Tringa totanus densities were lowest ≤150 m from the plantation edge while snipe Gallinago gallinago densities were 50% higher close to plantations (0–50 m) than further away (51–700 m), and no consistent effects of plantation height, diameter, density or type were identified. Plantations are typically small and widespread, and simulated scenarios indicated that total declines in bird abundance resulting from planting trees in one large block (1,000 ha) could result in only ~11% of the declines predicted from planting multiple small blocks (1 ha) in similar habitats. Synthesis and application. Planting forests in open landscapes can have severe impacts on populations of ground-nesting birds, which emphasizes the need for strategic planning of tree-planting schemes. Given Iceland's statutory commitments to species protection and the huge contribution of Iceland to global migratory bird flyways, these are challenges that must be addressed quickly, before population-level impacts are observed across migratory ranges

Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled ‘Using climate data in ecological research’ held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists came together to discuss the robust analysis of climate data in ecology. The discussions identified three common pitfalls encountered by ecologists: 1) selection of inappropriate spatial resolutions for analysis; 2) improper use of publically available data or code; and 3) insufficient representation of the uncertainties behind the adopted approach. Here, we discuss how these pitfalls can be avoided, before suggesting ways that both ecology and climate science can move forward. Our main recommendation is that ecologists and climate scientists collaborate more closely, on grant proposals and scientific publications, and informally through online media and workshops. More sharing of data and code (e.g. via online repositories), lessons and guidance would help to reconcile differing approaches to the robust handling of data. We call on ecologists to think critically about which aspects of the climate are relevant to their study system, and to acknowledge and actively explore uncertainty in all types of climate data. And we call on climate scientists to make simple estimates of uncertainty available to the wider research community. Through steps such as these, we will improve our ability to robustly attribute observed ecological changes to climate or other factors, while providing the sort of influential, comprehensive analyses that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change so urgently require

Low-latency gravitational wave alert products and their performance in anticipation of the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run

Multi-messenger searches for binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers are currently one of the most exciting areas of astronomy. The search for joint electromagnetic and neutrino counterparts to gravitational wave (GW)s has resumed with Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)'s, Advanced Virgo (AdVirgo)'s and KAGRA's fourth observing run (O4). To support this effort, public semi-automated data products are sent in near real-time and include localization and source properties to guide complementary observations. Subsequent refinements, as and when available, are also relayed as updates. In preparation for O4, we have conducted a study using a simulated population of compact binaries and a Mock Data Challenge (MDC) in the form of a real-time replay to optimize and profile the software infrastructure and scientific deliverables. End-to-end performance was tested, including data ingestion, running online search pipelines, performing annotations, and issuing alerts to the astrophysics community. In this paper, we present an overview of the low-latency infrastructure as well as an overview of the performance of the data products to be released during O4 based on a MDC. We report on expected median latencies for the preliminary alert of full bandwidth searches (29.5 s) and for the creation of early warning triggers (-3.1 s), and show consistency and accuracy of released data products using the MDC. This paper provides a performance overview for LVK low-latency alert structure and data products using the MDC in anticipation of O4

Predator management for breeding waders: a review of current evidence and priority knowledge gaps

Rapid declines in breeding wader populations across the world have prompted the development of a series of conservation tools, many of which are designed to influence productivity. Across western Europe, efforts to reverse population declines are typically limited by high levels of nest and chick predation, and managing this predator impact has been a major research focus in the last two decades. A workshop held at the 2019 International Wader Study Group conference aimed to synthesise current understanding of predator management tools and to use expert knowledge to identify and prioritise important knowledge gaps in this area. Here we review the four predator management tools that were described (predator diversion, exclusion, lethal control and headstarting), together with insights into the potential responses of mammalian predators to these management tools. The expert assessment of important areas for future work highlighted the need to: (1) increase our knowledge of predators and their responses to management interventions; (2) ensure our science connects to policy, practitioners and members of the public; and (3) establish clear and consistent goals for the future of breeding wader populations to inform the development and deployment of these management tools

Diversity and Strain Specificity of Plant Cell Wall Degrading Enzymes Revealed by the Draft Genome of Ruminococcus flavefaciens FD-1

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