Marginal benefit to South Asian economies from SO2 emissions mitigation and subsequent increase in monsoon rainfall

Sulphate aerosols are dominated by SO2 emissions from coal-burning for the Indian electricity sector and they are thought to have a short term but significant, negative impact on South Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall. This reduction in precipitation in turn can lead to reduced economic outputs, primarily through smaller agricultural yields. By bringing together estimates of (a) the impact of sulphate aerosols on precipitation and (b) the observed relationship between monsoon rainfall and GDP, we present a methodology to estimate the possible financial cost of this effect on the Indian economy and on its agricultural sector. Our preliminary estimate is that the derived benefits could be large enough that around 50% of India’s SO2 emissions could be economically mitigated at no cost or net benefit, although it should be noted that the large uncertainties in the underlying relationships mean that the overall uncertainty is also large. Comparison of the 1952–1981 and 1982–2011 periods indicates that the Indian economy may now be more resilient to variability of the monsoon rainfall. As such, a case could be made for action to reduce SO2 emissions, particularly in the crucial monsoon period. This would have a significant, positive effect on a crucial and large sector in India’s economy and the effects would be visible almost instantly. The recent growth in renewable energy sources in India and the consequent, reduced increase in coal burning means that further financial costs have already been avoided. This impact should be further investigated so that it can be included in cost-benefit analyses of different fuel types in the region. The significant uncertainties associated with these calculations are discussed

Development of a low-maintenance measurement approach to continuously estimate methane emissions: a case study

The chemical breakdown of organic matter in landfills represents a significant source of methane gas (CH4). Current estimates suggest that landfills are responsible for between 3% and 19% of global anthropogenic emissions. The net CH4 emissions resulting from biogeochemical processes and their modulation by microbes in landfills are poorly constrained by imprecise knowledge of environmental constraints. The uncertainty in absolute CH4 emissions from landfills is therefore considerable. This study investigates a new method to estimate the temporal variability of CH4 emissions using meteorological and CH4 concentration measurements downwind of a landfill site in Suffolk, UK from July to September 2014, taking advantage of the statistics that such a measurement approach offers versus shorter-term, but more complex and instantaneously accurate, flux snapshots. Methane emissions were calculated from CH4 concentrations measured 700 m from the perimeter of the landfill with observed concentrations ranging from background to 46.4 ppm. Using an atmospheric dispersion model, we estimate a mean emission flux of 709 μg m−2 s−1 over this period, with a maximum value of 6.21 mg m−2 s−1, reflecting the wide natural variability in biogeochemical and other environmental controls on net site emission. The emissions calculated suggest that meteorological conditions have an influence on the magnitude of CH4 emissions. We also investigate the factors responsible for the large variability observed in the estimated CH4 emissions, and suggest that the largest component arises from uncertainty in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions within the landfill area. The results determined using the low-maintenance approach discussed in this paper suggest that a network of cheaper, less precise CH4 sensors could be used to measure a continuous CH4 emission time series from a landfill site, something that is not practical using far-field approaches such as tracer release methods. Even though there are limitations to the approach described here, this easy, low-maintenance, low-cost method could be used by landfill operators to estimate time-averaged CH4 emissions and their impact downwind by simultaneously monitoring plume advection and CH4 concentrations

Economic evaluation of a community-based diagnostic pathway to stratify adults for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a Markov model informed by a feasibility study

Objectives: To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of a risk stratification pathway, compared with standard care, for detecting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in primary care. Setting: Primary care general practices in England. Participants: Adults who have been identified in primary care to have a risk factor for developing NAFLD, that is, type 2 diabetes without a history of excessive alcohol use. Intervention: A community-based pathway, which utilises transient elastography and hepatologists to stratify patients at risk of NAFLD, has been implemented and demonstrated to be feasible (NCT02037867). Earlier identification could mean earlier treatments, referral to specialist, and enrolment into surveillance programmes. Design: The impact of earlier detection and treatment with the risk stratification pathway on progression to later stages of liver disease was examined using decision modelling with Markov chains to estimate lifetime health and economic effects of the two comparators. Data sources: Data from a prospective cross-sectional feasibility study indicating risk stratification pathway and standard care diagnostic accuracies, were combined with a Markov model that comprised the following states: no/mild liver disease, significant liver disease, compensated cirrhosis; decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant and death. The model data were chosen from up-to-date UK sources, published literature and an expert panel. Outcome measure: An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) indicating cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) of the risk stratification pathway compared with standard care was estimated. Results: The risk stratification pathway was more effective than standard care, and cost ￡2,138 per QALY gained. The ICER was most sensitive to estimates of the rate of fibrosis progression and the effect of treatment on reducing this, and ranged from -￡1,895 to ￡7,032/QALY. The risk stratification pathway demonstrated an 85% probability of cost-effectiveness at the UK willingness-to-pay threshold of ￡20,000/QALY. Conclusions: Implementation of a community-based risk stratification pathway is likely to be cost effective

The XL probe: a luxury or a necessity? risk stratification in an obese community cohort using transient elastography

Background: Transient elastography is a non-invasive tool which can stratify patients at risk of chronic liver disease. However, a raised body mass index has been independently associated with a failed or unreliable examination.Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyse the performance of two probes (M/XL) on a portable transient elastography device within an obese community population.Method: The method involved a prospective study with recruitment from a primary care practice. Patients identified with a risk factor for chronic liver disease were invited to a community-based risk stratification pathway for transient elastography readings with both probes. A threshold of ≥8.0 kPa defined elevated liver stiffness.Results: A total of 477 patients attended the pathway. Of the patients, 21% had no valid measurements with the M probe. There was a significant difference between the probes in the proportion achieving ≥10 valid readings (M versus XL probe: 66.2% versus 90.2%; p ≤ 0.001) and in their reliability (M versus XL probe: 77.4% versus 98.5%; p = 0.028). Unreliable readings with the M probe increased as the body mass index increased. The XL probe re-stratified 5.2% of patients to have a normal reading.Conclusion: The XL probe on a portable device significantly improves the applicability of transient elastography within a community-based risk stratification pathway

Crop Updates 2005 Oilseeds

This session covers fifteen papers from different authors: 1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, Douglas Hamilton, FARMING SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT OFFICER CROP AGRONOMY AND NUTRITION 2. Canola workshop at Crop Updates 2005, Oilseeds WA, John Duff, EXECUTIVE OFFICER OILSEEDS WA 3. Comparison of IT and TT canola varieties in geographic zones of WA, 2003-4, Graham Walton and Hasan Zaheer, Department of Agriculture 4. Farmer scale canola variety trials in WA, 2004, Graham Walton, John Duff, Neil Harris and Heather Cosgriff, Oilseeds WA 5. Oilseed crops for industrial uses, Margaret C. Campbell, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture (CLIMA), Graham Walton,Department of Agriculture 6. Weed control opportunities with GM canola, Bill Crabtree, Independent Consultant, Northam 7. Soil and tissue tests for the sulfur requirements of canola, R.F. Brennan and M.D.A. Bolland, Department of Agriculture 8. Tests to predict the potassium requirements of canola, R.F. Brennan and M.D.A. Bolland, Department of Agriculture 9. Genotypic variation in potassium efficiency of canola, P.M. Damon and Z. Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, UWA 10. Atrazine contamination of groundwater in the agricultural region of Western Australia, Russell Speed1, Neil Rothnie2, John Simons1, Ted Spadek2 and John Moore1;1Department of Agriculture, 2Chemistry Centre (WA) PESTS AND DISEASES 11. Controlling aphids and Beet western yellows virus in canola using imidacloprid seed dressing, Brenda Coutts and Roger Jones; Department of Agriculture 12. Managing sclerotinia in canola, Neil Harris, Dovuro Seeds Western Australia 13. Slugs, the trail of destruction in canola, Neil Harris, Dovuro Seeds Western Australia 14. Blackleg risk assessment and strategies for risk management in canola during 2005 and beyond, Moin Salam, Ravjit Khanguraand Art Diggle, Department of Agriculture 15. Modelling: BRAT – Blackleg Risk Appraisal Tool, Moin Salam, Ravjit KhanguraDepartment of Agricultur

iDirac: a field-portable instrument for long-term autonomous measurements of isoprene and selected VOCs

The iDirac is a new instrument to measure selected hydrocarbons in the remote atmosphere. A robust design is central to its specifications, with portability, power efficiency, low gas consumption and autonomy as the other driving factors in the instrument development. The iDirac is a dual-column isothermal oven gas chromatograph with photoionisation detection (GC-PID). The instrument is designed and built in-house. It features a modular design, with the novel use of open-source technology for accurate instrument control. Currently configured to measure biogenic isoprene, the system is suitable for a range of compounds. For isoprene measurements in the field, the instrument precision (relative standard deviation) is ±10 %, with a limit of detection down to 38 pmol mol−1 (or ppt). The instrument was first tested in the field in 2015 during a ground-based campaign, and has since shown itself suitable for deployment in a variety of environments and platforms. This paper describes the instrument design, operation and performance based on laboratory tests in a controlled environment as well as during deployments in forests in Malaysian Borneo and central England

A new approach to high resolution, high contrast electron microscopy of macromolecular block copolymer assemblies

Determining the structure of macromolecular samples is vital for understanding and adapting their function. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is widely used to achieve this, but, owing to the weak electron scattering cross-section of carbon, TEM images of macromolecular samples are generally low contrast and low resolution. Here we implement a fast and practically simple routine to achieve high-contrast imaging of macromolecular samples using exit wave reconstruction (EWR), revealing a new level of structural detail. This is only possible using ultra-low contrast supports such as the graphene oxide (GO) used here and as such represents a novel application of these substrates. We apply EWR on GO membranes to study self-assembled block copolymer structures, distinguishing not only the general morphology or nanostructure, but also evidence for the substructure (i.e. the polymer chains) which gives insight into their formation mechanisms and functional properties

Ozone loss derived from balloon-borne tracer measurements and the SLIMCAT CTM

Balloon-borne measurements of CFC-11 (on flights of the DIRAC in situ gas chromatograph and the DESCARTES grab sampler), ClO and O3 were made during the 1999/2000 winter as part of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign. Here we present the CFC-11 data from nine flights and compare them first with data from other instruments which flew during the campaign and then with the vertical distributions calculated by the SLIMCAT 3-D CTM. We calculate ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex between late January and early March using the relation between CFC-11 and O3 measured on the flights, the peak ozone loss (1200 ppbv) occurs in the 440–470 K region in early March in reasonable agreement with other published empirical estimates. There is also a good agreement between ozone losses derived from three independent balloon tracer data sets used here. The magnitude and vertical distribution of the loss derived from the measurements is in good agreement with the loss calculated from SLIMCAT over Kiruna for the same days

Development of an urban greenhouse gas modelling system to support a London monitoring network

A greenhouse gas monitoring network is being developed across London that will allow independent evaluation of reported emissions based on atmospheric data. The first site is operational at the Thames Barrier, and in this work, two atmospheric dispersion models (NAME and ADMS‐URBAN) are compared to observed methane concentrations between 5 May 2018 and 31 July 2018. We find that the models simulate some of the major features in the data, with consistent data–model discrepancies suggesting errors in the emissions inventory

Assessment of Surgical Procedural Time, Pedicle Screw Accuracy, and Clinician Radiation Exposure of a Novel Robotic Navigation System Compared With Conventional Open and Percutaneous Freehand Techniques: A Cadaveric Investigation

STUDY DESIGN: Cadaveric study. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate accuracy, radiation exposure, and surgical time of a new robotic-assisted navigation (RAN) platform compared with freehand techniques in conventional open and percutaneous procedures. METHODS: Ten board-certified surgeons inserted 16 pedicle screws at T10-L5 (n = 40 per technique) in 10 human cadaveric torsos. Pedicle screws were inserted with (1) conventional MIS technique (L2-L5, patient left pedicles), (2) MIS RAN (L2-L5, patient right pedicles), (3) conventional open technique (T10-L1, patient left pedicles), and (4) open RAN (T10-L1, patient right pedicles). Output included (1) operative time, (2) number of fluoroscopic images, and (3) screw accuracy. RESULTS: In the MIS group, compared with the freehand technique, RAN allowed for use of larger screws (diameter: 6.6 ± 0.6 mm vs 6.3 ± 0.5 mm; length: 50.3 ± 4.1 mm vs 46.9 ± 3.5 mm), decreased the number of breaches \u3e2 mm (0 vs 7), fewer fluoroscopic images (0 ± 0 vs 108.3 ± 30.9), and surgical procedure time per screw (3.6 ± 0.4 minutes vs 7.6 ± 2.0 minutes) (all CONCLUSION: RAN significantly improved accuracy and decreased radiation exposure in comparison to freehand techniques in both conventional open and percutaneous surgical procedures in cadavers. RAN significantly increased setup time compared with both conventional procedures