The effect of losses disguised as wins and near misses in electronic gaming machines: A systematic review

Near misses and losses disguised as wins have been of interest to gambling researchers and policymakers for many years (e.g., Griffiths in J Gambl Stud 9(2):101–120, 1993). This systematic literature review describes the behavioural, psychological, and psychobiological effects of near misses and losses disguised as wins (LDWs) in an effort to evaluate their precise influence on the player and to highlight areas requiring further investigation. A systematic search for relevant studies was conducted using Scopus, PubMed, PsycINFO, ProQuest Sociology databases, and the Gambling Research Exchange Ontario Knowledge Repository. A total of 51 (from an initial pool of 802) experimental peer-reviewed studies using human participants were found between 1991 and 2015. The systematic review revealed that near misses motivate continued play, but have varying effects on the emotional state or betting behaviour of the player. Near miss events were also shown to be associated with elevated skin conductance levels and diffuse activity across the brain, most consistently in areas processing reinforcement and reward. Re-examination of the studies of near misses events after classifying the type of game feedback suggested that the effectiveness of near misses is related to the phenomenology of a near miss itself rather than as a response to auditory or visual feedback provided by a slot machine. In contrast to near misses, the presence of LDWs was found to relate to an overestimation of how much a player is actually winning and was consistently viewed as an exciting event. The effect of LDWs appears to be driven by the presence of visuals and sounds most often associated with a true win. Practical implications and directions for future research are also discussed

Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records

Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research including trend detection, evaluation of climate model simulations, as a proxy for mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, a predictor in long-term European gridded precipitation data sets, the assessment of drought and extremes, tree-ring reconstructions and as a benchmark for other regional series. A key finding from EWP has been the multi-centennial trends towards wetter winters and drier summers. We statistically reconstruct seasonal EWP using independent, quality-assured temperature, pressure and circulation indices. Using a sleet and snow series for the UK derived by Profs. Gordon Manley and Elizabeth Shaw to examine winter reconstructions, we show that precipitation totals for pre-1870 winters are likely biased low due to gauge under-catch of snowfall and a higher incidence of snowfall during this period. When these factors are accounted for in our reconstructions, the observed trend to wetter winters in EWP is no longer evident. For summer, we find that pre-1820 precipitation totals are too high, likely due to decreasing network density and less certain data at key stations. A significant trend to drier summers is not robustly present in our reconstructions of the EWP series. While our findings are more certain for winter than summer, we highlight (a) that extreme caution should be exercised when using EWP to make inferences about multi-centennial trends, and; (b) that assessments of 18th and 19th Century winter precipitation should be aware of potential snow biases in early records. Our findings underline the importance of continual re-appraisal of established long-term climate data sets as new evidence becomes available. It is also likely that the identified biases in winter EWP have distorted many other long-term European precipitation series

The 'dirty dozen' of freshwater science: detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors

Sound water policy and management rests on sound hydrometeorological and ecological data. Conversely, unrepresentative, poorly collected, or erroneously archived data introduce uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate, and direction of environmental change, in addition to undermining confidence in decision-making processes. Unfortunately, data biases and errors can enter the information flow at various stages, starting with site selection, instrumentation, sampling/measurement procedures, postprocessing and ending with archiving systems. Techniques such as visual inspection of raw data, graphical representation, and comparison between sites, outlier, and trend detection, and referral to metadata can all help uncover spurious data. Tell-tale signs of ambiguous and/or anomalous data are highlighted using 12 carefully chosen cases drawn mainly from hydrology (‘the dirty dozen’). These include evidence of changes in site or local conditions (due to land management, river regulation, or urbanization); modifications to instrumentation or inconsistent observer behavior; mismatched or misrepresentative sampling in space and time; treatment of missing values, postprocessing and data storage errors. Also for raising awareness of pitfalls, recommendations are provided for uncovering lapses in data quality after the information has been gathered. It is noted that error detection and attribution are more problematic for very large data sets, where observation networks are automated, or when various information sources have been combined. In these cases, more holistic indicators of data integrity are needed that reflect the overall information life-cycle and application(s) of the hydrological data

Processing of ultrafine-size particulate metal matrix composites by advanced shear technology

Copyright @ 2009 ASM International. This paper was published in Metallurgical & Materials Transactions A 40A(3) and is made available as an electronic reprint with the permission of ASM International. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplications of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of this paper are prohibited.Lack of efficient mixing technology to achieve a uniform distribution of fine-size reinforcement within the matrix and the high cost of producing components have hindered the widespread adaptation of particulate metal matrix composites (PMMCs) for engineering applications. A new rheo-processing method, the melt-conditioning high-pressure die-cast (MC-HPDC) process, has been developed for manufacturing near-net-shape components of high integrity. The MC-HPDC process adapts the well-established high shear dispersive mixing action of a twin-screw mechanism to the task of overcoming the cohesive force of the agglomerates under a high shear rate and high intensity of turbulence. This is followed by direct shaping of the slurry into near-net-shape components using an existing cold-chamber die-casting process. The results indicate that the MC-HPDC samples have a uniform distribution of ultrafine-sized SiC particles throughout the entire sample in the as-cast condition. Compared to those produced by conventional high-pressure die casting (HPDC), MC-HPDC samples have a much improved tensile strength and ductility.EP-SR

The “dirty dozen” of freshwater science: Detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors

Sound water policy and management rests on sound hydrometeorological and ecological data. Conversely, unrepresentative, poorly collected or erroneously archived data introduces uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and direction of environmental change, in addition to undermining confidence in decision-making processes. Unfortunately, data biases and errors can enter the information flow at various stages, starting with site selection, instrumentation, sampling/ measurement procedures, post-processing and ending with archiving systems. Techniques such as visual inspection of raw data, graphical representation and comparison between sites, outlier and trend detection, and referral to metadata can all help uncover spurious data. Tell-tale signs of ambiguous and/or anomalous data are highlighted using 12 carefully chosen cases drawn mainly from hydrology (‘the dirty dozen’). These include evidence of changes in site or local conditions (due to land management, river regulation or urbanisation); modifications to instrumentation or inconsistent observer behaviour; mismatched or misrepresentative sampling in space and time; treatment of missing values, post-processing and data storage errors. As well as raising awareness of pitfalls, recommendations are provided for uncovering lapses in data quality after the information has been gathered. It is noted that error detection and attribution are more problematic for very large data sets, where observation networks are automated, or when various information sources have been combined. In these cases, more holistic indicators of data integrity are needed that reflect the overall information life-cycle and application(s) of the hydrological data

Performance Issues in U.S.–China Joint Ventures

Based on an in-depth study of U.S.-China joint ventures, this article offers some insights into the performance of such international business relationships. While the conventional literature treats government as an amorphous aspea of the political-legal environment, in this case government is an active participant and influence in the performance of international joint ventures (UVs). It has both a constraining and enabling effect on LJV structure, strategy, and performance. For example, limits can be placed on ownership shares of joint ventures and on prices of the output. At the same time, government can cooperate with LJVs and foreign parent companies by creating partners for foreign parent companies, acting as major customers, and improving financial performance by lowering taxes

America's Rural Hospitals: A Selective Review of 1980s Research

We review 1980s research on American rural hospitals within the context of a decade of increasing restrictiveness in the reimbursement and operating environments. Areas addressed include rural hospital definitions, organizational and financial performance, and strategic management activities. The latter category consists of hospital closure, diversification and vertical integration, swing-bed conversion, sole community provider designation, horizontal integration and multihospital system affiliation, marketing, and patient retention. The review suggests several research needs, including: developing more meaningful definitions of rural hospitals, engaging in methodologically sound work on the effects of innovative programs and strategic management activities—including conversion of the facility itself—on rural hospital performance, and completing studies of the effects of rural hospital closure or conversion on the health of the communities served.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74857/1/j.1748-0361.1990.tb00682.x.pd

A cyclone climatology of the British-Irish Isles 1871–2012

The British-Irish Isles (BI) lie beneath the North Atlantic storm track year-round and thus are impacted by the passage of extra-tropical cyclones. Given recent extreme storminess and projections of enhanced winter cyclone activity for this region, there is much interest in assessing the extent to which the cyclone climate of the region may be changing. We address this by assessing a 142-year (1871–2012) record of cyclone frequency, intensity and ‘storminess’ derived from the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR) dataset. We also use this long-term record to examine associations between cyclone activity and regional hydroclimate. Our results confirm the importance of cyclone frequency in driving seasonal precipitation totals which we find to be greatest during summer months. Cyclone frequency and storminess are characterized by pronounced interannual and multi-decadal variability which are strongly coupled to atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, but we detect no evidence of an increasing trend. We observe an upward trend in cyclone intensity for the BI region, which is strongest in winter and consistent with model projections, but promote caution interpreting this given the changing data quality in the 20CR over time. Nonetheless, we assert that long-term reconstruction is helpful for contextualizing recent storminess and for identifying emerging changes in regional hydroclimate linked to cyclones