The effects of tides on the water mass mixing and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean

In this study, we use a novel pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean coupled model to examine the effects of tides on sea ice and the mixing of water masses. Two 30 year simulations were performed: one with explicitly resolved tides and the other without any tidal dynamics. We find that the tides are responsible for a ∼15% reduction in the volume of sea ice during the last decade and a redistribution of salinity, with surface salinity in the case with tides being on average ∼1.0–1.8 practical salinity units (PSU) higher than without tides. The ice volume trend in the two simulations also differs: −2.09 × 103 km3/decade without tides and −2.49 × 103 km3/decade with tides, the latter being closer to the trend of −2.58 × 103 km3/decade in the PIOMAS model, which assimilates SST and ice concentration. The three following mechanisms of tidal interaction appear to be significant: (a) strong shear stresses generated by the baroclinic clockwise rotating component of tidal currents in the interior waters; (b) thicker subsurface ice-ocean and bottom boundary layers; and (c) intensification of quasi-steady vertical motions of isopycnals (by ∼50%) through enhanced bottom Ekman pumping and stretching of relative vorticity over rough bottom topography. The combination of these effects leads to entrainment of warm Atlantic Waters into the colder and fresher surface waters, supporting the melting of the overlying ice

Weakening and warming of the European slope current since the late 1990s attributed to basin-scale density changes

Oceanic influences on shelf seas are mediated by flow along and across continental slopes, with consequences for regional hydrography and ecosystems. Here we present evidence for the variable North Atlantic influence on European shelf seas over the last 4 decades using ocean analysis and reanalysis products, as well as an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. To first order, flows oriented along isobaths at the continental slope are related to the poleward increase in density in the adjacent deep ocean that supports a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the North Atlantic, this density gradient and associated inflow have undergone substantial, sometimes abrupt, changes in recent decades. Inflow in the range 10–15 Sv is identified with eastward transport in temperature classes at 30∘ W in the latitude range 45–60∘ N. Associated with major subpolar warming around 1997, a cool and fresh branch of the Atlantic inflow was substantially reduced, while a warm and more saline inflow branch strengthened, with respective changes of the order of 5 Sv. Total inflow fell from ∼ 15 Sv pre-1997 to ∼ 10 Sv post-1997. In the model hindcast, particle tracking is used to trace the origins of poleward flows along the continental slope to the west of Ireland and Scotland before and after 1997. Backtracking particles up to 4 years, a range of subtropical and subpolar pathways is identified from a statistical perspective. In broad terms, cold, fresh waters of subpolar provenance were replaced by warm, saline waters of subtropical provenance. These changes have major implications for the downstream shelf regions that are strongly influenced by Atlantic inflow, in particular the northern North Sea, where “subtropicalization” of ecosystems has already been observed since the late 1990s

Development of a regional ocean model for the Caribbean, including 3D dynamics, thermodynamics and full surface flux forcing

A regional ocean model based on the NEMO framework was developed for the Caribbean. The model includes tides, lateral boundary forcing from a global simulation, realistic thermodynamics and baroclinic dynamics, and atmospheric forcing from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. A simulation of the year 2010 (with spin-up over 2009) was performed and the model was validated against sea-level observations from tide gauges and sea surface temperature observations from satellite. Typical temporal RMS error in sea-level is 6-8 cm and spatial RMS error in time-mean SST is 0.53 degC, with a mean offset of 0.08 degC but with localised regional extremes of up to +/- 3 deg C. Hurricanes Igor and Tomas show only a weak signature, with less than 20 cm storm surge, in both the tide gauge observations and model data for the three sites examined in the eastern Caribbean. Greater sea-level impacts experienced from these hurricanes are likely to have been due to high-frequency surface wind-waves and swell, which are not present in the tide gauge observations and are not simulated, nor parameterised, in this version of the model. These processes should be considered in addition. Further impacts may have not been directly related to sea level, e.g. landslides due to heavy rainfall and winds

Hotspots of dense water cascading in the Arctic Ocean: Implications for the Pacific water pathways

We explore dense water cascading (DWC), a type of bottom‐trapped gravity current, on multidecadal time scales using a pan‐Arctic regional ocean‐ice model. DWC is particularly important in the Arctic Ocean as the main mechanism of ventilation of interior waters when open ocean convection is blocked by strong density stratification. We identify the locations where the most intense DWC events occur and evaluate the associated cross‐shelf mass, heat, and salt fluxes. We find that the modeled locations of cascading agree well with the sparse historical observations and that cascading is the dominant process responsible for cross‐shelf exchange in the boundary layers. Simulated DWC fluxes of 1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) in the Central Arctic are comparable to Bering Strait inflow, with associated surface and benthic Ekman fluxes of 0.85 and 0.58 Sv. With ice decline, both surface Ekman flux and DWC fluxes are increasing at a rate of 0.023 and 0.0175 Sv/year, respectively. A detailed analysis of specific cascading sites around the Beaufort Gyre and adjacent regions shows that autumn upwelling of warm and saltier Atlantic waters on the shelf and subsequent cooling and mixing of uplifted waters trigger the cascading on the West Chukchi Sea shelf break. Lagrangian particle tracking of low salinity Pacific waters originating at the surface in the Bering Strait shows that these waters are modified by brine rejection and cooling, and through subsequent mixing become dense enough to reach depths of 160–200 m

Why is seasonal density stratification in shelf seas expected to increase under future climate change?

Coastal and shelf seas provide a diverse range of ecosystem services, which are often mediated by seasonal density stratification through its control on biogeochemical cycles. These seas are highly vulnerable to climate change and downscaling studies consistently project an increase in seasonal stratification over the next century, but without a clear explanation. Here we revisit a well-established theory of coastal ocean mixing and demonstrate with a new ensemble of downscaled simulations for the Northwest European continental shelf seas to 2100 that the increase of expansivity with temperature is sufficient to consistently increase the seasonal stratification. Where there is a closed balance between buoyancy input and mixing, small changes in expansivity are amplified to a large relative change in stratification. This simple link between global heating and stratification substantially reduces uncertainty in projections of this key parameter in seas around the world

The effect of vertical coordinates on the accuracy of a shelf sea model

The vertical coordinates (VC) are one of the most important set of configuration options of an ocean model. Optimisation is, however, a non-trivial exercise. We compare nine configurations to investigate different VC options and contrast the Vanishing Quasi-Sigma (VQS), partial step z-level, s-z hybrid and Multi-Envelope (MEs) approaches. Using NEMO model simulations, a hierarchy of experiments are conducted, including: unforced simulations, multi-year climatological simulations with comparisons against tracer profile observations, and tide-only simulations. Hydrostatic pressure gradient errors on the continental slope in the VQS coordinates are found to be consistent with reduced domain-averaged accuracy in both unforced and realistic simulations. Reduced accuracy on the continental shelf is associated with larger advective tracer transports at the shelfbreak. Accuracy is improved by using separate definitions of the computational surfaces on the shelf and slope using the MEs and s-z hybridisation approaches. MEs configurations employing VQS on the continental slope with a computational slope steepness parameter, , of 0.04–0.07, perform comparably with s-z hybrid configurations. Restrictions on the tilt of computational surfaces on the shelf and upper slope appear less important. In contrast, tide-only experiments without stratification show that tidal simulation quality is linked with accurately representing the shelf bathymetry, which favours terrain-following systems. The experiments support transitioning the vertical coordinates across the shelfbreak using either a MEs or hybrid s-z approach as a flexible route to improving accuracy in regional and global models

Relative vs. absolute wind stress in a circumpolar model of the Southern Ocean

The transfer of momentum between the atmosphere and ocean is dependent upon the velocity difference between the seawater and overlying air. This is commonly known as relative wind, or ocean current interaction, and its direct effect is to damp mesoscale ocean eddies through the imposition of an opposing surface torque. If an ocean model neglects the ocean velocity in its bulk formulae, this can lead to an increase in power input to the ocean and a large increase in Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE). Other secondary effects that are dependent upon the current system under consideration may also occur. Here we show that the neglect of relative wind leads to an ∼50% increase in surface EKE in a circumpolar model of the Southern Ocean. This acts to increase the southwards eddy heat transport, fluxing more heat into the seasonal ice zone, and subsequently reducing ice cover in all seasons. The net reduction in planetary albedo may be a way for a largescale impact on climate

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to Fish and Coasts to Ocean

It has long been recognized that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling work package of the EURO-BASIN programme

Direct application of plasmid DNA containing type I interferon transgenes to vaginal mucosa inhibits HSV-2 mediated mortality

The application of naked DNA containing type I interferon (IFN) transgenes is a promising potential therapeutic approach for controlling chronic viral infections. Herein, we detail the application of this approach that has been extensively used to restrain ocular HSV-1 infection, for antagonizing vaginal HSV-2 infection. We show that application of IFN-α1, -α5, and –β transgenes to vaginal mouse lumen 24 hours prior to HSV-2 infection reduces HSV-2 mediated mortality by 2.5 to 3-fold. However, other type I IFN transgenes (IFN- α4, -α5, -α6, and –α9) are non effectual against HSV-2. We further show that the efficacy of IFN-α1 transgene treatment is independent of CD4+ T lymphocytes. However, in mice depleted of CD8+ T lymphocytes, the ability of IFN-α1 transgene treatment to antagonize HSV-2 was lost

Climate-driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean can greatly reduce the circulation of the North Sea

We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf‐seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea, and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st Century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2‐1.3Sv (1Sv=106 m3s‐1) to 0.0‐0.6Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure, and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication