Tropospheric QBO-ENSO interactions and differences between Atlantic and Pacific

This study investigates the interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-year model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth Sytem Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural and no anthropogenic forcings are considered. These long simulations allow us to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO-ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region

The influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on major stratospheric sudden warmings

Major stratospheric sudden warmings are prominent disturbances of the Northern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere. Understanding the factors controlling major warmings is required, since the associated circulation changes can propagate down into the troposphere and affect the surface climate, suggesting enhanced prediction skill when these processes are accurately represented in models. In this study we investigate how different natural and anthropogenic factors, namely, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances, influence the frequency, variability, and life cycle of major warmings. This is done using sensitivity experiments performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is able to simulate the life cycle of major warmings realistically. The QBO strengthens the climatological stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) and significantly reduces the frequency of major warmings through reduction of planetary wave propagation into the PNJ region. Variability in SSTs weakens the PNJ and significantly increases the major warming frequency due to enhanced wave forcing. Even extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence the total frequency but determine the prewarming phase of major warmings. The amplitude and duration of major warmings seem to be mainly determined by internal stratospheric variability. We also suggest that SST variability, two-way ocean/atmosphere coupling, and hence the memory of the ocean are needed to reproduce the observed tropospheric negative Northern Annular Mode pattern after major warmings

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth’s regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface

Tropical forcing of the Summer East Atlantic pattern

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave

Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms

We investigate the role of the tropics, the stratosphere, and atmosphere‐ocean coupling for seasonal forecasts of strong, potentially damaging, Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter wind storm frequencies. This is done by means of relaxation experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model, which allow us to prescribe perfect forecasts for specific parts of the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system. We find that perfect predictions of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere significantly enhance winter storm predictive skill between eastern Greenland and Northern Europe. Correct seasonal predictions of the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings play a decisive role. The importance of correctly predicting the tropics and of two‐way atmosphere‐ocean coupling, both for forecasting stratospheric sudden warming risk and, correspondingly, severe winter storm frequency, is noted

FUSIONS Definitional Framework for Food Waste

none21To develop reliable food waste estimates, which can be accurately repeated over time, it is necessary to produce data within a robust methodological framework. This must comprise a consistent definition of food waste and its components, and consistent system boundaries for the food supply chain. The absence of a framework for defining food waste to date has led to the production of datasets that are not always comparable or transparent as to which fractions are included. A common definitional framework will support policy-makers at both EU and Member State level, and stakeholders across the food supply chain, by enabling them to accurately track the rate of food waste reduction, and the effectiveness of their waste prevention strategies. The development of this framework for defining food waste signals a key step towards improving our understanding of the food waste challenge in Europe and its consistent use will help measure progress towards both resource efficiency and food security goals.openKarin Östergren; Jenny Gustavsson; Hilke Bos-Brouwers; Toine Timmermans; Ole-Jørgen Hansen; Hanne Møller; Gina Anderson; Clementine O’Connor; Han Soethoudt; Tom Quested; Sophie Easteal; Alessandro Politano; Cecilia Bellettato; Massimo Canali; Luca Falasconi; Silvia Gaiani; Matteo Vittuari; Felicitas Schneider; Graham Moates; Keith Waldron; Barbara RedlingshöferKarin Östergren; Jenny Gustavsson; Hilke Bos-Brouwers; Toine Timmermans; Ole-Jørgen Hansen; Hanne Møller; Gina Anderson; Clementine O’Connor; Han Soethoudt; Tom Quested; Sophie Easteal; Alessandro Politano; Cecilia Bellettato; Massimo Canali; Luca Falasconi; Silvia Gaiani; Matteo Vittuari; Felicitas Schneider; Graham Moates; Keith Waldron; Barbara Redlingshöfe

Galanin pathogenic mutations in temporal lobe epilepsy

Temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is a common epilepsy syndrome with a complex etiology. Despite evidence for the participation of genetic factors, the genetic basis of TLE remains largely unknown. A role for the galanin neuropeptide in the regulation of epileptic seizures has been established in animal models more than two decades ago. However, until now there was no report of pathogenic mutations in GAL, the galanin-encoding gene, and therefore its role in human epilepsy was not established. Here, we studied a family with a pair of monozygotic twins affected by TLE and two unaffected siblings born to healthy parents. Exome sequencing revealed that both twins carried a novel de novo mutation (p.A39E) in the GAL gene. Functional analysis revealed that the p.A39E mutant showed antagonistic activity against galanin receptor 1 (GalR1)-mediated response, and decreased binding affinity and reduced agonist properties for GalR2. These findings suggest that the p.A39E mutant could impair galanin signaling in the hippocampus, leading to increased glutamatergic excitation and ultimately to TLE. In a cohort of 582 cases, we did not observe any pathogenic mutations indicating that mutations in GAL are a rare cause of TLE. The identification of a novel de novo mutation in a biologically-relevant candidate gene, coupled with functional evidence that the mutant protein disrupts galanin signaling, strongly supports GAL as the causal gene for the TLE in this family. Given the availability of galanin agonists which inhibit seizures, our findings could potentially have direct implications for the development of anti-epileptic treatmen