Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models

Statistical criteria for characterizing irradiance time series.

We propose and examine several statistical criteria for characterizing time series of solar irradiance. Time series of irradiance are used in analyses that seek to quantify the performance of photovoltaic (PV) power systems over time. Time series of irradiance are either measured or are simulated using models. Simulations of irradiance are often calibrated to or generated from statistics for observed irradiance and simulations are validated by comparing the simulation output to the observed irradiance. Criteria used in this comparison should derive from the context of the analyses in which the simulated irradiance is to be used. We examine three statistics that characterize time series and their use as criteria for comparing time series. We demonstrate these statistics using observed irradiance data recorded in August 2007 in Las Vegas, Nevada, and in June 2009 in Albuquerque, New Mexico

Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time

A unified account of tilt illusions, association fields, and contour detection based on Elastica

As expressed in the Gestalt law of good continuation, human perception tends to associate stimuli that form smooth continuations. Contextual modulation in primary visual cortex, in the form of association fields, is believed to play an important role in this process. Yet a unified and principled account of the good continuation law on the neural level is lacking. In this study we introduce a population model of primary visual cortex. Its contextual interactions depend on the elastica curvature energy of the smoothest contour connecting oriented bars. As expected, this model leads to association fields consistent with data. However, in addition the model displays tilt-illusions for stimulus configurations with grating and single bars that closely match psychophysics. Furthermore, the model explains not only pop-out of contours amid a variety of backgrounds, but also pop-out of single targets amid a uniform background. We thus propose that elastica is a unifying principle of the visual cortical network

DRSPALL :spallings model for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant 2004 recertification.

This report presents a model to estimate the spallings releases for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment (WIPP PA). A spallings release in the context of WIPP PA refers to a portion of the solid waste transported from the subsurface repository to the ground surface due to inadvertent oil or gas drilling into the WIPP repository at some time after site closure. Some solid waste will be removed by the action of the drillbit and drilling fluid; this waste is referred to as cuttings and cavings. If the repository is pressurized above hydrostatic at the time of intrusion, solid waste material local to the borehole may be subject to mechanical failure and entrainment in high-velocity gases as the repository pressure is released to the borehole. Solid material that fails and is transported into the wellbore and thus to the surface comprise the spallings releases. The spallings mechanism is analogous to a well blowout in the modern oil and gas drilling industry. The current spallings conceptual model and associated computer code, DRSPALL, were developed for the 2004 recertification because the prior spallings model used in the 1996 WIPP Compliance Certification Application (CCA) was judged by an independent peer review panel as inadequate (DOE 1996, 9.3.1). The current conceptual model for spallings addresses processes that take place several minutes before and after a borehole intrusion of a WIPP waste room. The model couples a pipe-flow wellbore model with a porous flow repository model, allowing high-pressure gas to flow from the repository to the wellbore through a growing cavity region at the well bottom. An elastic stress model is applied to the porous solid domain that allows for mechanical failure of repository solids if local tensile stress exceeds the tensile strength of the waste. Tensile-failed solids may be entrained into the wellbore flow stream by a fluidized bed model, in which case they are ultimately transported to the land surface comprising a release. In July 2003, DOE/SNL presented the spallings conceptual model to a independent peer review panel in accordance with NUREG 1297 guidelines (NRC, 1988). The panel ultimately judged the model as adequate for implementation in WIPP PA (Yew et al., 2003). This report documents the spallings model history from 1997 to the implementation of DRSPALL in the 2004 Compliance Recertification Application (CRA) (DOE, 2004). The scope of this report includes descriptions of the conceptual model, numerical model, verification and validation techniques, model sensitivity studies, and WIPP PA spallings results as presented in the 2004 CRA

Pride and popcorn: consuming the idea of community at film screenings in the Turkish diaspora

A range of studies have revealed the interrelatedness of identity construction, community formation and media among diasporas, mostly focusing on domestic contexts. Seeking to add further nuance to the understanding of the social lives of diasporas, we concentrate on media culture in the public environment of the film theatre. The significance of diasporic film consumption is investigated through a local audience study of Turkish film screenings in Antwerp. The phenomenon of the screenings was analysed through a multi-method approach, including 536 questionnaires among audiences, 19 in-depth interviews and 3 group interviews, along with previous findings (on distribution and exploitation) of the same project. The results show that Turkish films are almost exclusively attended by people with Turkish roots, creating a Turkish diasporic space within the boundaries of the urban and the public. The audience study shows that the screenings fulfil a major social role but also affect understandings of community

VHL Type 2B Mutations Retain VBC Complex Form and Function

Background: von Hippel-Lindau disease is characterized by a spectrum of hypervascular tumors, including renal cell carcinoma, hemangioblastoma, and pheochromocytoma, which occur with VHL genotype-specific differences in penetrance. VHL loss causes a failure to regulate the hypoxia inducible factors (HIF-1a and HIF-2a), resulting in accumulation of both factors to high levels. Although HIF dysregulation is critical to VHL disease-associated renal tumorigenesis, increasing evidence points toward gradations of HIF dysregulation contributing to the degree of predisposition to renal cell carcinoma and other manifestations of the disease. Methodology/Principal Findings: This investigation examined the ability of disease-specific VHL missense mutations to support the assembly of the VBC complex and to promote the ubiquitylation of HIF. Our interaction analysis supported previous observations that VHL Type 2B mutations disrupt the interaction between pVHL and Elongin C but maintain partial regulation of HIF. We additionally demonstrated that Type 2B mutant pVHL forms a remnant VBC complex containing the active members ROC1 and Cullin-2 which retains the ability to ubiquitylate HIF-1a. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subtypes of VHL mutations support an intermediate level of HIF regulation via a remnant VBC complex. These findings provide a mechanism for the graded HIF dysregulation and genetic predisposition fo

Response and resistance to BET bromodomain inhibitors in triple-negative breast cancer

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a heterogeneous and clinically aggressive disease for which there is no targeted therapy. BET bromodomain inhibitors, which have shown efficacy in several models of cancer have not been evaluated in TNBC. These inhibitors displace BET bromodomain proteins such as BRD4 from chromatin by competing with their acetyl-lysine recognition modules, leading to inhibition of oncogenic transcriptional programs. Here we report the preferential sensitivity of TNBCs to BET bromodomain inhibition in vitro and in vivo, establishing a rationale for clinical investigation and further motivation to understand mechanisms of resistance. In paired cell lines selected for acquired resistance to BET inhibition from previously sensitive TNBCs, we failed to identify gatekeeper mutations, new driver events or drug pump activation. BET-resistant TNBC cells remain dependent on wild-type BRD4, which supports transcription and cell proliferation in a bromodomain-independent manner. Proteomic studies of resistant TNBC identify strong association with MED1 and hyper-phosphorylation of BRD4 attributable to decreased activity of PP2A, identified here as a principal BRD4 serine phosphatase. Together, these studies provide a rationale for BET inhibition in TNBC and present mechanism-based combination strategies to anticipate clinical drug resistance