Drug survival of adalimumab, ustekinumab and secukinumab in patients with psoriasis: a prospective cohort study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR).

BACKGROUND: Real-world biologic drug survival is an important proxy measure for effectiveness. Predictors of drug survival may help patients with psoriasis choose between biologic therapies. OBJECTIVES: (i) To assess the relative drug survival of adalimumab, ustekinumab and secukinumab in patients with psoriasis. (ii) To investigate predictors of biologic drug survival. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was performed in the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR) between November 2007 and August 2019. We performed survival analysis and fitted a flexible parametric survival model for biologic discontinuation due to ineffectiveness. RESULTS: In total 9652 patients were included: 5543 starting on adalimumab (57·4%), 991 on secukinumab (10·3%) and 3118 on ustekinumab (32·3%). The overall drug survivals of adalimumab, secukinumab and ustekinumab in year 1 were 0·78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·77-0·79], 0·88 (95% CI 0·86-0·91) and 0·88 (95% CI 0·87-0·89), respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios (adjHRs) for discontinuation of adalimumab and secukinumab compared with ustekinumab were 2·11 (95% CI 1·76-2·54) and 0·67 (95% CI 0·40-1·11), respectively. The presence of psoriatic arthritis predicted for survival in the adalimumab and secukinumab cohorts (adjHR 0·67, 95% CI 0·51-0·88 and 0·70, 95% CI 0·40-1·24, respectively), but for discontinuation in the ustekinumab cohort (adjHR 1·42, 95% CI 1·12-1·81). Previous exposure to biologic therapies predicted for discontinuation in the ustekinumab and secukinumab cohorts (adjHR 1·54, 95% CI 1·26-1·89 and 1·49, 95% CI 0·91-2·45, respectively) and for survival in the adalimumab cohort (adjHR 0·71, 95% CI 0·55-0·92). CONCLUSIONS: Secukinumab and ustekinumab have similar sustained drug survival, while adalimumab has a lower drug survival in patients with psoriasis. Psoriatic arthritis and previous biologic experience were predictors with differential effects between the biologic therapies. What is already known about this topic? There is conflicting evidence over the real-world drug survival of secukinumab in patients with psoriasis. Data from registries to date suggest that secukinumab has a lower drug survival than that reported from clinical trials. What does this study add? This study found that secukinumab and ustekinumab had similar sustained drug survival in the real world, while the drug survival of adalimumab was lower, suggesting that the real-world drug survival of secukinumab is higher than previously reported. We found that psoriatic arthritis and previous biologic experience had differential effects on drug discontinuation in the three biologic cohorts. These predictors may help patients and clinicians choose the most appropriate biologic therapy

A standardization approach to compare treatment safety and effectiveness outcomes between clinical trials and real‐world populations in psoriasis

Background: Patients recruited in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for biologic therapies in psoriasis are not fully representative of the real‐world psoriasis population. Objectives: Firstly, to investigate whether patient characteristics are associated with being included in a psoriasis RCT. Secondly, to estimate the differences in the incidence of severe adverse events (SAEs) and the response rate between RCT and real‐world populations of patients on biologic therapies for psoriasis using a standardization method. Methods: Data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR) were appended to individual participant‐level data from two RCTs assessing ustekinumab in patients with psoriasis. Baseline variables were assessed for association of being in an RCT using a multivariable logistic regression model. Propensity score weights were derived to reweigh the registry population so that variables had the distribution of the trial population. We measured the C‐statistic of the model with trial status as the dependent variable, and the risk differences in the incidence rate of SAEs in the first year and Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) after 6 months in the BADBIR cohort before and after weighting. Results: In total 6790 registry and 2021 RCT participants were included. The multivariable logistic regression model had a C‐statistic of 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81–0.83]. The risk differences for the incidence rate of SAEs and the proportion of patients with PASI < 1.5 were 9.27 (95% CI −3.91–22.5) per 1000 person‐years and 0.95 (95% CI −1.98–4.15), respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that RCTs of biologic therapies in patients with psoriasis are not fully representative of the real‐world population, but this lack of external validity does not account for the efficacy–effectiveness gap

Residual stress analysis and finite element modelling of repair-welded titanium sheets

An innovative FE modelling approach has been tested to investigate the effects of weld repair thin sheets of titanium alloy, taking into account pre-existing stress field in the components. In the case study analysed, the residual stress fields due to the original welds are introduced by means of a preliminary sequentially-coupled thermo-mechanical analysis and considered as pre-existing stress in the sheets for the subsequent weld simulation. Comparisons are presented between residual stress predictions and experimental measurements available from the literature with the aim of validating the numerical procedure. As a destructive sectioning technique was used in the reference experimental measurements, an investigation is also presented on the use of the element deactivation strategy when adopted to simulate material removal. Although the numerical tool is an approximate approach to simulate the actual material removal, the strategy appears to compute a physical strain relaxation and stress redistribution in the remaining part of the component. The weld repair modelling strategy and the element deactivation tool adopted to simulate the residual stress measurement technique are shown to predict residual stress trends which are very well correlated with experimental findings from the literature

Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

On staying grounded and avoiding Quixotic dead ends

The 15 articles in this special issue on The Representation of Concepts illustrate the rich variety of theoretical positions and supporting research that characterize the area. Although much agreement exists among contributors, much disagreement exists as well, especially about the roles of grounding and abstraction in conceptual processing. I first review theoretical approaches raised in these articles that I believe are Quixotic dead ends, namely, approaches that are principled and inspired but likely to fail. In the process, I review various theories of amodal symbols, their distortions of grounded theories, and fallacies in the evidence used to support them. Incorporating further contributions across articles, I then sketch a theoretical approach that I believe is likely to be successful, which includes grounding, abstraction, flexibility, explaining classic conceptual phenomena, and making contact with real-world situations. This account further proposes that (1) a key element of grounding is neural reuse, (2) abstraction takes the forms of multimodal compression, distilled abstraction, and distributed linguistic representation (but not amodal symbols), and (3) flexible context-dependent representations are a hallmark of conceptual processing

The breast cancer somatic 'muta-ome': tackling the complexity

Acquired somatic mutations are responsible for approximately 90% of breast tumours. However, only one somatic aberration, amplification of the HER2 locus, is currently used to define a clinical subtype, one that accounts for approximately 10% to 15% of breast tumours. In recent years, a number of mutational profiling studies have attempted to further identify clinically relevant mutations. While these studies have confirmed the oncogenic or tumour suppressor role of many known suspects, they have exposed complexity as a main feature of the breast cancer mutational landscape (the 'muta-ome'). The two defining features of this complexity are (a) a surprising richness of low-frequency mutants contrasting with the relative rarity of high-frequency events and (b) the relatively large number of somatic genomic aberrations (approximately 20 to 50) driving an average tumour. Structural features of this complex landscape have begun to emerge from follow-up studies that have tackled the complexity by integrating the spectrum of genomic mutations with a variety of complementary biological knowledge databases. Among these structural features are the growing links between somatic gene disruptions and those conferring breast cancer risk, mutually exclusive coexistence and synergistic mutational patterns, and a clearly non-random distribution of mutations implicating specific molecular pathways in breast tumour initiation and progression. Recognising that a shift from a gene-centric to a pathway-centric approach is necessary, we envisage that further progress in identifying clinically relevant genomic aberration patterns and associated breast cancer subtypes will require not only multi-dimensional integrative analyses that combine mutational and functional profiles, but also larger profiling studies that use second- and third-generation sequencing technologies in order to fill out the important gaps in the current mutational landscape

NFATc1 supports imiquimod-induced skin inflammation by suppressing IL-10 synthesis in B cells

Epicutaneous application of Aldara cream containing the TLR7 agonist imiquimod (IMQ) to mice induces skin inflammation that exhibits many aspects of psoriasis, an inflammatory human skin disease. Here we show that mice depleted of B cells or bearing interleukin (IL)-10-deficient B cells show a fulminant inflammation upon IMQ exposure, whereas ablation of NFATc1 in B cells results in a suppression of Aldara-induced inflammation. In vitro, IMQ induces the proliferation and IL-10 expression by B cells that is blocked by BCR signals inducing NFATc1. By binding to HDAC1, a transcriptional repressor, and to an intronic site of the Il10 gene, NFATc1 suppresses IL-10 expression that dampens the production of tumour necrosis factor-α and IL-17 by T cells. These data indicate a close link between NFATc1 and IL-10 expression in B cells and suggest NFATc1 and, in particular, its inducible short isoform, NFATc1/αA, as a potential target to treat human psoriasis