Response to a rabies epidemic in Bali, Indonesia

Emergency vaccinations and culling failed to contain an outbreak of rabies in Bali, Indonesia, during 2008–2009. Subsequent island-wide mass vaccination (reaching 70% coverage, >200,000 dogs) led to substantial declines in rabies incidence and spread. However, the incidence of dog bites remains high, and repeat campaigns are necessary to eliminate rabies in Bali

Exposure–response modelling approaches for determining optimal dosing rules in children

Within paediatric populations, there may be distinct age groups characterised by different exposure–response relationships. Several regulatory guidance documents have suggested general age groupings. However, it is not clear whether these categorisations will be suitable for all new medicines and in all disease areas. We consider two model-based approaches to quantify how exposure–response model parameters vary over a continuum of ages: Bayesian penalised B-splines and model-based recursive partitioning. We propose an approach for deriving an optimal dosing rule given an estimate of how exposure–response model parameters vary with age. Methods are initially developed for a linear exposure–response model. We perform a simulation study to systematically evaluate how well the various approaches estimate linear exposure–response model parameters and the accuracy of recommended dosing rules. Simulation scenarios are motivated by an application to epilepsy drug development. Results suggest that both bootstrapped model-based recursive partitioning and Bayesian penalised B-splines can estimate underlying changes in linear exposure–response model parameters as well as (and in many scenarios, better than) a comparator linear model adjusting for a categorical age covariate with levels following International Conference on Harmonisation E11 groupings. Furthermore, the Bayesian penalised B-splines approach consistently estimates the intercept and slope more accurately than the bootstrapped model-based recursive partitioning. Finally, approaches are extended to estimate Emax exposure–response models and are illustrated with an example motivated by an in vitro study of cyclosporine

The demography of free-roaming dog populations and applications to disease and population control

Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine-mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. We report the results of a 3-year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies-endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free-roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free-roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. Synthesis and applications. These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine-mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes

Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study

<p>Background: Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.</p> <p>Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, of rabies in dogs, to be ~1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.</p> <p>Conclusions/Significance: The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.</p&gt

Assessing subjective preferences for river quality improvements: combining Q-methodology and choice experiment data

Choice decisions are inherently subjective but capturing and explaining nuanced variation in respondents’ attitudes is difficult and needs more than the simple socio-demographic variables traditionally used in economic research. In recent years, environmental economists have been shifting towards a more holistic approach to economic valuation, making an increased use of psychology within behavioural economics, to better understand subjective preferences on the environment. This research applies a novel mixed-methods approach to integrate the results from a Q-methodological analysis, which reveals respondents’ latent traits and perceptions about river management, into a choice experiment which estimates respondents’ preferences for potential future improvements to river water quality. The purpose is to improve the quantification of subjectivity within stated preference experiments. Q-methodology reveals five statistically distinct narratives (characterised as Ecological, Financial, Leadership, Collaboration, Legislation) which define the main perspectives respondents hold for river management strategies. Choice experiment results suggest subjectivity causes significant differences in respondents’ choice behaviour. Statistically verified Q-methodological narratives provide plausible explanations for differences in respondents’ choice preferences regarding river water quality improvements. By triangulating between quantitative and qualitative research methods, we demonstrate a research strategy that can contribute to a better understanding of the impact socially contested perspectives have on respondents’ choice behaviour

A female advantage in the recognition of emotional facial expressions: Test of an evolutionary hypothesis

A set of computerized tasks was used to investigate sex differences in the speed and accuracy of emotion recognition in 62 men and women of reproductive age. Evolutionary theories have posited that female superiority in the perception of emotion might arise from women's near-universal responsibility for child-rearing. Two variants of the child-rearing hypothesis predict either across-the-board female superiority in the discrimination of emotional expressions ("attachment promotion" hypothesis) or a female superiority that is restricted to expressions of negative emotion ("fitness threat" hypothesis). Therefore, we sought to evaluate whether the expression of the sex difference is influenced by the valence of the emotional signal (Positive or Negative). The results showed that women were faster than men at recognizing both positive and negative emotions from facial cues, supporting the attachment promotion hypothesis. Support for the fitness threat hypothesis also was found, in that the sex difference was accentuated for negative emotions. There was no evidence that the female superiority was learned through previous childcare experience or that it was derived from a sex difference in simple perceptual speed. The results suggest that evolved mechanisms, not domain-general learning, underlie the sex difference in recognition of facial emotions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/83923/1/A_female_advantage_in_the_recognition_of_emotional_facial_expressions_test_of_an_evolutionary_hyptothesis.pd

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Glycemic Control, Coping, and Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms in Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes: A cross-lagged longitudinal approach

status: publishe