Matching and event-shape NNDL accuracy in parton showers

To explore the interplay of NLO matching and next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) parton showers, we consider the simplest case of γ* and Higgs-boson decays to qq¯¯and gg respectively. Not only should shower NLL accuracy be retained across observables after matching, but for global event-shape observables and the two-jet rate, matching can augment the shower in such a way that it additionally achieves next-to-next-to-double-logarithmic (NNDL) accuracy, a first step on the route towards general NNLL. As a proof-of-concept exploration of this question, we consider direct application of multiplicative matrix-element corrections, as well as simple implementations of MC@NLO and POWHEG-style matching. We find that the first two straightforwardly bring NNDL accuracy, and that this can also be achieved with POWHEG, although particular care is needed in the handover between POWHEG and the shower. Our study involves both analytic and numerical components and we also touch on some phenomenological considerations

Risk prediction tools for cancer in primary care.

Numerous risk tools are now available, which predict either current or future risk of a cancer diagnosis. In theory, these tools have the potential to improve patient outcomes through enhancing the consistency and quality of clinical decision-making, facilitating equitable and cost-effective distribution of finite resources such as screening tests or preventive interventions, and encouraging behaviour change. These potential uses have been recognised by the National Cancer Institute as an 'area of extraordinary opportunity' and an increasing number of risk prediction models continue to be developed. The data on predictive utility (discrimination and calibration) of these models suggest that some have potential for clinical application; however, the focus on implementation and impact is much more recent and there remains considerable uncertainty about their clinical utility and how to implement them in order to maximise benefits and minimise harms such as over-medicalisation, anxiety and false reassurance. If the potential benefits of risk prediction models are to be realised in clinical practice, further validation of the underlying risk models and research to assess the acceptability, clinical impact and economic implications of incorporating them in practice are needed.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.40

Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data

Detection of maturity and ligament injury using magic angle directional imaging

Purpose: To investigate whether magnetic field–related anisotropies of collagen may be correlated with postmortem findings in animal models. Methods: Optimized scan planning and new MRI data‐processing methods were proposed and analyzed using Monte Carlo simulations. Six caprine and 10 canine knees were scanned at various orientations to the main magnetic field. Image intensities in segmented voxels were used to compute the orientation vectors of the collagen fibers. Vector field and tractography plots were computed. The Alignment Index was defined as a measure of orientation distribution. The knees were subsequently assessed by a specialist orthopedic veterinarian, who gave a pathological diagnosis after having dissected and photographed the joints. Results: Using 50% less scans than reported previously can lead to robust calculation of fiber orientations in the presence of noise, with much higher accuracy. The 6 caprine knees were found to range from very immature ( 3 years). Mature specimens exhibited significantly more aligned collagen fibers in their patella tendons compared with the immature ones. In 2 of the 10 canine knees scanned, partial cranial caudal ligament tears were identified from MRI and subsequently confirmed with encouragingly high consistency of tractography, Alignment Index, and dissection results. Conclusion: This method can be used to detect injury such as partial ligament tears, and to visualize maturity‐related changes in the collagen structure of tendons. It can provide the basis for new, noninvasive diagnostic tools in combination with new scanner configurations that allow less‐restricted field orientations

In silico modelling to differentiate the contribution of sugar frequency versus total amount in driving biofilm dysbiosis in dental caries

Dental caries is the most prevalent infection globally and a substantial economic burden in developed countries. Dietary sugars are the main risk factor, and drive increased proportions of acid-producing and acid-tolerating (aciduric) bacterial species within dental bio lms. Recent longitudinal studies have suggested that caries is most strongly correlated with total sugar intake, contrasting with the prevailing view that intake frequency is the primary determinant. To explore this possibility, we employed a computational model for supragingival plaque to systematically sample combinations of sugar frequency and total amount, allowing their independent contributions on the ratio of aciduric (i.e. cariogenic) to non-aciduric bacteria to be unambiguously determined. Sugar frequency was found to be irrelevant for either very high or very low daily total amounts as the simulated bio lm was predicted to be always or never cariogenic, respectively. Frequency was a determining factor for intermediate total amounts of sugar, including the estimated average human consumption. An increased risk of caries (i.e. high prevalence of aciduric/non-aciduric species) was predicted for high intake frequencies. Thus, both total amount and frequency of sugar intake may combine to in uence plaque cariogenicity. These ndings could be employed to support public guidance for dietary change, leading to improved oral healthcare

Measurement and Interpretation of Fermion-Pair Production at LEP energies above the Z Resonance

This paper presents DELPHI measurements and interpretations of cross-sections, forward-backward asymmetries, and angular distributions, for the e+e- -> ffbar process for centre-of-mass energies above the Z resonance, from sqrt(s) ~ 130 - 207 GeV at the LEP collider. The measurements are consistent with the predictions of the Standard Model and are used to study a variety of models including the S-Matrix ansatz for e+e- -> ffbar scattering and several models which include physics beyond the Standard Model: the exchange of Z' bosons, contact interactions between fermions, the exchange of gravitons in large extra dimensions and the exchange of sneutrino in R-parity violating supersymmetry.Comment: 79 pages, 16 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.

A Determination of the Centre-of-Mass Energy at LEP2 using Radiative 2-fermion Events

Using e+e- -> mu+mu-(gamma) and e+e- -> qqbar(gamma) events radiative to the Z pole, DELPHI has determined the centre-of-mass energy, sqrt{s}, using energy and momentum constraint methods. The results are expressed as deviations from the nominal LEP centre-of-mass energy, measured using other techniques. The results are found to be compatible with the LEP Energy Working Group estimates for a combination of the 1997 to 2000 data sets.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.