Cost-effectiveness of a new autoantibody test added to Computed Tomography (CT) compared to CT surveillance alone in the diagnosis of lung cancer amongst patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules

Oncimmune's EarlyCDT®-Lung is a simple ELISA blood test that measures seven lung cancer specific autoantibodies and is used in the assessment of malignancy risk in patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs). The objective of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of EarlyCDT-Lung in the diagnosis of lung cancer amongst patients with IPNs in addition to CT surveillance, compared to CT surveillance alone which is the current recommendation by the British Thoracic Society guidelines. A model consisting of a combination of a decision tree and Markov model was developed using the outcome measure of the quality adjusted life year (QALY). A life-time time horizon was adopted. The model was parameterized using a range of secondary sources. At £70 per test, EarlyCDT-Lung and CT surveillance was found to be cost-effective compared to CT surveillance alone with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than £2,500 depending on the test accuracy parameters used. It was also found that EarlyCDT-Lung can be priced up to £1,177 and still be cost-effective based on cost-effectiveness acceptance threshold of £20,000 / QALY. Further research to resolve parameter uncertainty, was not found to be of value. The results here demonstrate that at £70 per test the EarlyCDT-Lung will have a positive impact on patient outcomes and coupled with CT surveillance is a cost-effective approach to the management of patients with IPNs. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are robust to realistic variation in the parameters used in the model

Evolutionary stasis and lability in thermal physiology in a group of tropical lizards

Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation, or both. Here we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming

Acute coronary syndrome-associated depression: Getting to the heart of the data

Objectives: We sought to identify and consider methodological issues that may have limited or confounded investigations into links between depression and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) events. Methods: We reviewed salient research studies to identify such issues. Results: Against previous conclusions, we found that lifetime depression is unlikely to have any primary ACS impact, while we clarify that ‘incident depression’ (depression commencing at variable periods around the time of the ACS event) appears to confer a greater risk than non-incident depression. As the time periods of incident depressions are likely to have quite differing causes, evaluating any consolidated risk period appears unwise. It remains unclear whether it is ‘depression’ that provides the risk for ACS events or a higher order factor. Variable use of depression measures and failure to evaluate depressive sub-types have further limited clarification. The response by ACS patients to antidepressant medication appears limited, and it remains to be determined whether exposure to an antidepressant might be a contributing factor. Finally, studies may have focused on an excessively refined association, and neglected to recognise that depression is associated with a wide range of vascular events, suggesting that a broader conceptual model may be required. Limitations: The authors have considered only a limited set of studies in preparing this review, with the critique relying at times on subjective interpretation. Conclusions: After decades of research pursuing links between depression and ACS events explanatory links remain obscure, presumably reflecting a range of methodological issues that we have discussed in this paper

Preliminary results of a feasibility study of the use of information technology for identification of suspected colorectal cancer in primary care: the CREDIBLE study

This is the final version of the article. Available from Cancer Research UK/Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: We report the findings of a feasibility study using information technology to search electronic primary care records and to identify patients with possible colorectal cancer. METHODS: An algorithm to flag up patients meeting National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) urgent referral criteria for suspected colorectal cancer was developed and incorporated into clinical audit software. This periodically flagged up such patients aged 60 to 79 years. General practitioners (GPs) reviewed flagged-up patients and decided on further clinical management. We report the numbers of patients identified and the numbers that GPs judged to need further review, investigations or referral to secondary care and the final diagnoses. RESULTS: Between January 2012 and March 2014, 19,580 records of patients aged 60 to 79 years were searched in 20 UK general practices, flagging up 809 patients who met urgent referral criteria. The majority of the patients had microcytic anaemia (236 (29%)) or rectal bleeding (205 (25%)). A total of 274 (34%) patients needed further clinical review of their records; 199 (73%) of these were invited for GP consultation, and 116 attended, of whom 42 were referred to secondary care. Colon cancer was diagnosed in 10 out of 809 (1.2%) flagged-up patients and polyps in a further 28 out of 809 (3.5%). CONCLUSIONS: It is technically possible to identify patients with colorectal cancer by searching electronic patient records.We acknowledge the General Practitioners, practice nurses, practice managers and administrative staff who supported this study, our trial co-ordinator Marie Crook, Anthony Ingold who was one of our patient representatives and MSDi for their support in developing the software algorithm. We also acknowledge the support of the National Institute for Health Research Clinical Research Network. This study was funded by the National Awareness and Early Diagnosis Initiative (NAEDI). TM is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) through the Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for the West Midlands (CLAHRC-WM) programme

Risk prediction tools for cancer in primary care.

Numerous risk tools are now available, which predict either current or future risk of a cancer diagnosis. In theory, these tools have the potential to improve patient outcomes through enhancing the consistency and quality of clinical decision-making, facilitating equitable and cost-effective distribution of finite resources such as screening tests or preventive interventions, and encouraging behaviour change. These potential uses have been recognised by the National Cancer Institute as an 'area of extraordinary opportunity' and an increasing number of risk prediction models continue to be developed. The data on predictive utility (discrimination and calibration) of these models suggest that some have potential for clinical application; however, the focus on implementation and impact is much more recent and there remains considerable uncertainty about their clinical utility and how to implement them in order to maximise benefits and minimise harms such as over-medicalisation, anxiety and false reassurance. If the potential benefits of risk prediction models are to be realised in clinical practice, further validation of the underlying risk models and research to assess the acceptability, clinical impact and economic implications of incorporating them in practice are needed.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.40

Evolution of cooperation driven by zealots

Recent experimental results with humans involved in social dilemma games suggest that cooperation may be a contagious phenomenon and that the selection pressure operating on evolutionary dynamics (i.e., mimicry) is relatively weak. I propose an evolutionary dynamics model that links these experimental findings and evolution of cooperation. By assuming a small fraction of (imperfect) zealous cooperators, I show that a large fraction of cooperation emerges in evolutionary dynamics of social dilemma games. Even if defection is more lucrative than cooperation for most individuals, they often mimic cooperation of fellows unless the selection pressure is very strong. Then, zealous cooperators can transform the population to be even fully cooperative under standard evolutionary dynamics.Comment: 5 figure

Comparison of four mathematical models to analyze indicator-dilution curves in the coronary circulation

While several models have proven to result in accurate estimations when measuring cardiac output using indicator dilution, the mono-exponential model has primarily been chosen for deriving coronary blood/plasma volume. In this study, we compared four models to derive coronary plasma volume using indicator dilution; the mono-exponential, power-law, gamma-variate, and local density random walk (LDRW) model. In anesthetized goats (N = 14), we determined the distribution volume of high molecular weight (2,000 kDa) dextrans. A bolus injection (1.0 ml, 0.65 mg/ml) was given intracoronary and coronary venous blood samples were taken every 0.5–1.0 s; outflow curves were analyzed using the four aforementioned models. Measurements were done at baseline and during adenosine infusion. Absolute coronary plasma volume estimates varied by ~25% between models, while the relative volume increase during adenosine infusion was similar for all models. The gamma-variate, LDRW, and mono-exponential model resulted in volumes corresponding with literature, whereas the power-model seemed to overestimate the coronary plasma volume. The gamma-variate and LDRW model appear to be suitable alternative models to the mono-exponential model to analyze coronary indicator-dilution curves, particularly since these models are minimally influenced by outliers and do not depend on data of the descending slope of the curve only

Aerobic capacity, activity levels and daily energy expenditure in male and female adolescents of the kenyan nandi sub-group

The relative importance of genetic and socio-cultural influences contributing to the success of east Africans in endurance athletics remains unknown in part because the pre-training phenotype of this population remains incompletely assessed. Here cardiopulmonary fitness, physical activity levels, distance travelled to school and daily energy expenditure in 15 habitually active male (13.9±1.6 years) and 15 habitually active female (13.9±1.2) adolescents from a rural Nandi primary school are assessed. Aerobic capacity ([Formula: see text]) was evaluated during two maximal discontinuous incremental exercise tests; physical activity using accelerometry combined with a global positioning system; and energy expenditure using the doubly labelled water method. The [Formula: see text] of the male and female adolescents were 73.9±5.7 ml(.) kg(-1.) min(-1) and 61.5±6.3 ml(.) kg(-1.) min(-1), respectively. Total time spent in sedentary, light, moderate and vigorous physical activities per day was 406±63 min (50% of total monitored time), 244±56 min (30%), 75±18 min (9%) and 82±30 min (10%). Average total daily distance travelled to and from school was 7.5±3.0 km (0.8-13.4 km). Mean daily energy expenditure, activity-induced energy expenditure and physical activity level was 12.2±3.4 MJ(.) day(-1), 5.4±3.0 MJ(.) day(-1) and 2.2±0.6. 70.6% of the variation in [Formula: see text] was explained by sex (partial R(2) = 54.7%) and body mass index (partial R(2) = 15.9%). Energy expenditure and physical activity variables did not predict variation in [Formula: see text] once sex had been accounted for. The highly active and energy-demanding lifestyle of rural Kenyan adolescents may account for their exceptional aerobic fitness and collectively prime them for later training and athletic success

Negative Effects of Paternal Age on Children's Neurocognitive Outcomes Can Be Explained by Maternal Education and Number of Siblings

Background: Recent findings suggest advanced paternal age may be associated with impaired child outcomes, in particular, neurocognitive skills. Such patterns are worrisome given relatively universal trends in advanced countries toward delayed nuptiality and fertility. But nature and nurture are both important for child outcomes, and it is important to control for both when drawing inferences about either pathway. Methods and Findings: We examined cross-sectional patterns in six developmental outcome measures among children in the U.S. Collaborative Perinatal Project (n = 31,346). Many of these outcomes at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y of age (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test) are negatively correlated with paternal age when important family characteristics such as maternal education and number of siblings are not included as covariates. But controlling for family characteristics in general and mother’s education in particular renders the effect of paternal age statistically insignificant for most developmental measures. Conclusions: Assortative mating produces interesting relationships between maternal and paternal characteristics that can inject spurious correlation into observational studies via omitted variable bias. Controlling for both nature and nurture reveals little residual evidence of a link between child neurocognitive outcomes and paternal age in these data. Result

Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Patients with Aortic Aneurysms

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that vascular disease confers vulnerability to a late-onset of depressive illness and the impairment of specific cognitive functions, most notably in the domains of memory storage and retrieval. Lower limb athero-thrombosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) have both been previously associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms possibly due to associated intracerebral vascular disease or systemic inflammation, hence suggesting that these illnesses may be regarded as models to investigate the vascular genesis of neuropsychiatric symptoms. The aim of this study was to compare neuropsychiatric symptoms such as depression, anxiety and a variety of cognitive domains in patients who had symptoms of peripheral athero-thrombosis (intermittent claudication) and those who had an asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm AAA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a cross-sectional study, 26 participants with either intermittent claudication or AAA were assessed using a detailed neuropsychiatric assessment battery for various cognitive domains and depression and anxiety symptoms (Hamilton Depression and Anxiety Scales). Student t test and linear regression analyses were applied to compare neuropsychiatric symptoms between patient groups. AAA participants showed greater levels of cognitive impairment in the domains of immediate and delayed memory as compared to patients who had intermittent claudication. Cognitive dysfunction was best predicted by increasing aortic diameter. CRP was positively related to AAA diameter, but not to cognitive function. AAA and aortic diameter in particular were associated with cognitive dysfunction in this study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: AAA patients are at a higher risk for cognitive impairment than intermittent claudication patients. Validation of this finding is required in a larger study, but if confirmed could suggest that systemic factors peculiar to AAA may impact on cognitive function.Bernhard T. Baune, Steven J. Unwin, Frances Quirk and Jonathan Golledg