A physically-based stochastic boundary-layer perturbation scheme. Part I: formulation and evaluation in a convection-permitting model

We present a simple, physically consistent stochastic boundary layer scheme implemented in the Met Office's Unified Model. It is expressed as temporally correlated multiplicative Poisson noise with a distribution that depends on physical scales. The distribution can be highly skewed at convection-permitting scales (horizontal grid lengths around 1 km) when temporal correlation is far more important than spatial. The scheme is evaluated using small ensemble forecasts of two case studies of severe convective storms over the UK. Perturbations are temporally correlated over an eddy-turnover timescale, and may be similar in magnitude to or larger than the mean boundary-layer forcing. However, their mean is zero and hence they, in practice, they have very little impact on the energetics of the forecast, so overall domain-averaged precipitation, for example, is essentially unchanged. Differences between ensemble members grow; after around 12 h they appear to be roughly saturated; this represents the time scale to achieve a balance between addition of new perturbations, perturbation growth and dissipation, not just saturation of initial perturbations. The scheme takes into account the area chosen to average over, and results are insensitive to this area at least where this remains within an order of magnitude of the grid scale

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model

Rapid Detection of Botulinum Neurotoxins—A Review

A toxin is a poisonous substance produced within living cells or organisms. One of the most potent groups of toxins currently known are the Botulinum Neurotoxins (BoNTs). These are so deadly that as little as 62 ng could kill an average human; to put this into context that is approximately 200,000 × less than the weight of a grain of sand. The extreme toxicity of BoNTs leads to the need for methods of determining their concentration at very low levels of sensitivity. Currently the mouse bioassay is the most widely used detection method monitoring the activity of the toxin; however, this assay is not only lengthy, it also has both cost and ethical issues due to the use of live animals. This review focuses on detection methods both existing and emerging that remove the need for the use of animals and will look at three areas; speed of detection, sensitivity of detection and finally cost. The assays will have wide reaching interest, ranging from the pharmaceutical/clinical industry for production quality management or as a point of care sensor in suspected cases of botulism, the food industry as a quality control measure, to the military, detecting BoNT that has been potentially used as a bio warfare agent

A physically-based stochastic boundary-layer perturbation scheme. Part II: perturbation growth within a super ensemble framework

Convection-permitting forecasts have improved the forecasts of flooding from intense rainfall. However, probabilistic forecasts, generally based upon ensemble methods, are essential to quantify forecast uncertainty. This leads to a need to understand how different aspects of the model system affect forecast behaviour. We compare the uncertainty due to initial and boundary condition (IBC) perturbations and boundary-layer turbulence using a super ensemble (SE) created to determine the influence of 12 IBC perturbations vs. 12 stochastic boundary-layer (SBL) perturbations constructed using a physically-based SBL scheme. We consider two mesoscale extreme precipitation events. For each we run a 144-member SE. The SEs are analysed to consider the growth of differences between the simulations, and the spatial structure and scales of those differences. The SBL perturbations rapidly spin-up, typically within 12 h of precipitation commencing. The SBL perturbations eventually produce spread that is not statistically different from the spread produced by the IBC perturbations, though in one case there is initially increased spread from the IBC perturbations. Spatially, the growth from IBC occurs on larger scales than that produced by the SBL perturbations (typically by an order of magnitude). However, analysis across multiple scales shows that the SBL scheme produces a random relocation of precipitation up to the scale at which the ensemble members agree with each other. This implies that statistical post-processing can be used instead of running larger ensembles. Use of these statistical post-processing techniques could lead to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of convective events and their associated hazards

CODE-1 : moored array and large-scale data report

The Coastal Ocean Dynamics Experiment (CODE) was undertaken to identify and study the important dynamical processes which govern the wind-driven motion of coastal water over the continental shelf. The initial effort in this multi-year, multi-institutional research program was to obtain high-quality data sets of all the relevant physical variables needed to construct accurate kinematic and dynamic descriptions of the response of shelf water to strong wind forcing in the 2 to 10 day band. A series of two small-scale, densely-instrumented field experiments of approximately four months duration (called CODE-1 and CODE-2) were designed to explore and to determine the kinematics and momentum and heat balances of the local wind-driven flow over a region of the northern California shelf which is characterized by both relatively simple bottom topography and large wind stress events in both winter and summer. A more lightly instrumented, long-term, large-scale component was designed to help separate the local wind-driven response in the region of the small-scale experiments from motions generated either offshore by the California Current system or in some distant region along the coast, and also to help determine the seasonal cycles of the atmospheric forcing, water structure, and coastal currents over the northern California shelf. The first small-scale experiment (CODE-1) was conducted between April and August, 1981 as a pilot study in which primary emphasis was placed on characterizing the wind-driven "signal" and the "noise" from which this signal must be extracted. In particular, CODE-1 was designed to identify the key features of the circulation and its variability over the northern California shelf and to determine the important time and length scales of the wind-driven response. This report presents a basic description of the moored array data and some other Eulerian data collected during CODE-1. A brief description of the CODE-1 field program is presented first, followed by a description of the common data analysis procedures used to produce the various data sets presented here. Then basic descriptions of the following data sets are presented: (a) the coastal and moored meteorological measurements, (b) the moored current measurements, (c) the moored temperature and conductivity observations, (d) the bottom pressure measurements, and (e) the wind and adjusted coastal sea level observations obtained as part of the CODE-1 large-scale component.Prepared for the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE 80-14941

CODE-2 : moored array and large-scale data report

The Coastal Ocean Dynamics Experiment (CODE) was undertaken to identify and study the important dynamical processes which govern the wind-driven motion of coastal water over the continental shelf. The initial effort in this multi-year, multi-institutional research program was to obtain high-quality data sets of all the relevant physical variables needed to construct accurate kinematic and dynamic descriptions of the response of shelf water to strong wind forcing in the 2 to 10 day band. A series of two small-scale, densely- instrumented field experiments of approximately four months duration (called CODE-1 and CODE-2) were designed to explore and to determine the kinematics and momentum and heat balances of the local wind-driven flow over a region of the northern California shelf which is characterized by both relatively simple bottom topography and large wind stress events in both winter and summer. A more lightly instrumented, long -term, large-scale component was designed to help separate the local wind-driven response in the region of the small-scale experiments from motions generated either offshore by the California Current system or in some distant region along the coast, and also to help determine the seasonal cycles of the atmospheric forcing, water structure, and coastal currents over the northern California shelf. The first small-scale experiment (CODE-1) was conducted between April and August, 1981 as a pilot study in "which primary emphasis was placed on characterizing the wind-driven "signal" and the "noise" from which this signal must be extracted. In particular, CODE-1 was designed to identify the key features of the circulation and its variability over the northern California shelf and to determine the important time and length scales of the wind-driven response. The second small-scale experiment (CODE-2) was conducted between April and August, 1982 and was designed to sample more carefully the mesoscale horizonta1 variability observed in CODE-1. This report presents a basic description of the moored array data and some other Eulerian data collected during CODE-2. A brief description of the CODE-2 field program is presented first, followed by a description of the common data analysis procedures used to produce the various data sets presented here. Then basic descriptions of the following data sets are presented: (a) the coastal and moored meteorological measurements, (b) the moored current measurements, (c) array plots of the surface wind stress and near-surface current measurements, (d) the moored temperature and conductivity observations, (e) the bottom pressure measurements, and (f) the wind and adjusted coastal sea level observations obtained as part of the CODE-2 large-scale component.This work has been supported by the National Science Foundation

Navigating intimate trans citizenship while incarcerated in Australia and the United States

Trans women incarcerated throughout the world have been described as 'vulnerable populations' due to significant victimization, mistreatment, lack of gender-affirming care, and human rights violations, which confers greater risk of trauma, self-harm, and suicide compared with the general incarcerated population. Most incarceration settings around the world are segregated by the person’s sex characteristics (i.e., male or female) and governed by strong cis and gender normative paradigms. This analysis seeks to better understand and appreciate how the 'instructions' and the 'authorities' that regulate trans women’s corporeal representation, housing options and sense of self-determination implicate and affect their agency and actions in handling intimacies related to their personal life. Drawing upon lived incarcerated experiences of 24 trans women in Australia and the United States, and employing Ken Plummer’s notion of intimate citizenship, this analysis explores how trans women navigate choices and ways 'to do' gender, identities, bodies, emotions, desires and relationships while incarcerated in men’s prisons and governed by cis and gender normative paradigms. This critical analysis contributes to understanding how incarcerated trans women through grit, resilience, and ingenuity still navigate ways to embody, express and enact their intimate citizenship in innovative and unique ways

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms

Review: The increasing importance of carbon nanotubes and nanostructured conducting polymers in biosensors

The growing need for analytical devices requiring smaller sample volumes, decreased power consumption and improved performance have been driving forces behind the rapid growth in nanomaterials research. Due to their dimensions, nanostructured materials display unique properties not traditionally observed in bulk materials. Characteristics such as increased surface area along with enhanced electrical/optical properties make them suitable for numerous applications such as nanoelectronics, photovoltaics and chemical/biological sensing. In this review we examine the potential that exists to use nanostructured materials for biosensor devices. By incorporating nanomaterials, it is possible to achieve enhanced sensitivity, improved response time and smaller size. Here we report some of the success that has been achieved in this area. Many nanoparticle and nanofibre geometries are particularly relevant, but in this paper we specifically focus on organic nanostructures, reviewing conducting polymer nanostructures and carbon nanotubes

Ways of working during the COVID-19 crisis

We wrote this blog as an immediate response when COVID-19 led to lockdown. In the two weeks between writing it and sending it to Context, much has changed. Many of you have emailed with comments and suggestions based on your own evolving practices. By the time this has been published, it is impossible to know how much of the thinking described below will remain the same and what will have changed. What follows is therefore a punctuation, the capturing of some thoughts at a particular moment in time, full of the mania and fear and anxiety that comes from wanting to do something and not being quite sure what to do