Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

time predictions; human judgement; overoptimism; uncertainty; project managemen

Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

time predictions; human judgement; overoptimism; uncertainty; project managemen

Contrasting smokers’ and snus users’ perceptions of their personal tobacco behavior in Norway

In Norway, snus use and cigarette smoking are at different developmental stages as described by the diffusion of innovation model. Concomitant with declining smoking rates, the use of snus is increasing. In light of these differences in use trends, we assumed that snus users and cigarette smokers would have different perceptions of their personal tobacco use. A total of 4 852 smokers and snus users were recruited from a large sample of online panellists (n=62 000) and a postal database (n=15 000). The responses to 16 evaluative statements assessing perceptions about tobacco use were compared between exclusive snus users and exclusive smokers, and within dual users. The statements concerned self-evaluative emotions, moral judgements, social disapproval, and benefits of quitting. The perceptions of personal tobacco use differed greatly between exclusive smokers and exclusive snus users, even after controlling for age and sex. Smoker’s perceptions were more negative compared with snus users’ perception. The differences between smoking and snus use were particularly large for indices of social disapproval (Cohen’s d=1.56) and benefits from quitting use of the product (Cohen’s d=1.47) between exclusive users. Dual users exhibited a similar pattern. Smokers have more negative perception of own use compared to snus users. Dual users also devaluates smoking in comparison to their snus use. This finding may have important values for prevention strategies targeting smokers, snus users, and dual users

Time Predictions

This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life

Barneskolelæreren og engelskundervisning – en kvalitativ undersøkelse

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This article discusses the idea of multiple times and synchronization by exploring concrete (historical) texts as «bundles of times», and these texts’ relationship to a particular type of architecture, namely the Norwegian stave churches. During the 19th century, these origin­ally local churches were transformed – discursively and materially – into modern objects of knowledge and national and historical monuments. An important part of this transformational work were textual practices, including the circulation of a plethora of scholarly and popular texts regarding these buildings. For the 19th century actors and text producers, time was of course an important topic: Based on the new, modern understanding of time and history emerging in 18th and 19th century Europe, they formed and presented textually a certain conception of not only medieval time, but also a national future and, not least, history itself. What is claimed in this article, however, is that the texts in question are bearers of «more times» than (re)presented time. On the basis of a small selection of 19th century publications it is here argued that texts – as communicative events and as instances of cultural practices – can be seen both as tools of synchronization and as producers of non-synchronicity – when understood as texts in the course of time

The use of disaggregate data in evaluations of public health interventions: cross-sectional dependence can bias inference

Higher availability of administrative data and better infrastructure for electronic surveys allow for large sample sizes in evaluations of national and other large scale policies. Although larger datasets have many advantages, the use of big disaggregate data (e.g., on individuals, households, stores, municipalities) can be challenging in terms of statistical inference. Measurements made at the same point in time may be jointly influenced by contemporaneous factors and produce more variation across time than suggested by the model. This excess variation, or co-movement over time, produce observations that are not truly independent (i.e., cross-sectional dependence). If this dependency is not accounted for, statistical uncertainty will be underestimated, and studies may indicate reform effects where there is none. In the context of interrupted time series (segmented regression), we illustrate the potential for bias in inference when using large disaggregate data, and we describe two simple solutions that are available in standard statistical software

The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales

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The distribution and role of causal beliefs ...

-The purpose of this study was to explore the distribution and role of causal beliefs, inferences of responsibility, and moral emotions on deservingness of help to addicts among Norwegian adults using the social motivational model of Weiner. The data derives from a web panel survey of Norwegian adults aged 20 to 69 years (N = 1062, response rate 67%) in 2011. They responded to a questionnaire tapping into the above measures for nine different addictions in terms of a hypothetical person: "Think of a person addicted to-." The respondents mainly located the cause of the addictions inside the person and attributed the responsibility for the problem to the individual. In general, addicted persons did not receive a high mean level of sympathy, whereas a high mean level of willingness to provide help and assistance was reported. However, there were substantial variations among the nine addictions as to mean rating levels, with snus and sedatives as the two extreme counterparts. Separate SEM analyses for the nine addictions showed support for Weiner's mediation model with inferences of responsibility and sympathy (moral emotion) as effective mediators for deservingness of help. This pattern was stable across the nine addictions. Implications for interventions and possible limitations are discussed.Studien undersøker hva nordmenn mener om ni former for avhengighet: kokain, heroin, amfetamin, hasj, beroligende legemidler, snus, røyking, pengespill og alkohol. 1000 voksne nordmenn fikk spørsmål om: Hva de mente var årsaken til avhengigheten Om den avhengige burde holdes ansvarlig for sin avhengighet Om de følte sympati eller sinne mot den som var avhengig Om den avhengige fortjente hjelp Resultatene viste at de spurte i hovedsak plasserte årsak og ansvar for avhengigheten hos den avhengige selv.Avhengige individer utløste heller ikke mye sympati, men et relativt høyt nivå når det gjaldt å fortjene hjelp. Det var imidlertid relativt store variasjoner mellom de ulike formene for avhengighet. Av de ni avhengighetene mente folk at snusbrukere fortjente minst hjelp, mens folk som var avhengige av beroligende legemidler fortjente mest hjelp. Om metoden Et utvalg (såkalt nettpanel) bestående av 1062 voksne nordmenn i alderen 20-69 deltok i 2011 i en spørreundersøkelse. Deltagerne ble bedt om å tenke på en person (hypotetisk) som var avhengig av ni former for avhengighet. Deretter svarte de på et spørreskjema som baserte seg på en teoretisk modell (Weiner’s modell for ansvarstilskriving) for hjelpeatferd. Weiner foreslår at en legperson først vurderer om årsaken til at denne personen er blitt avhengig befinner seg hos personen selv (indre årsak) eller utenfor (ytre årsak). Deretter om personen skal holdes ansvarlig for sin avhengighet, for så å vurdere hvor mye sympati og sinne (moralske emosjoner) den avhengige utløser, før en bestemmer seg for hvor mye hjelp han eller hun fortjener. Analysene viste at modellen passet for alle formene for avhengighet, og ga støtte til Weiner’s modell der ansvar og moralske emosjoner fungerte som formidlere av virkningen på mengden av fortjent hjelp

The Effects of Previous Misestimation of Task Duration on Estimating Future Task Duration

It is a common time management problem that people underestimate the duration of tasks, which has been termed the "planning fallacy." To overcome this, it has been suggested that people should be informed about how long they previously worked on the same task. This study, however, tests whether previous misestimation also affects the duration estimation of a novel task, even if the feedback is only self-generated. To test this, two groups of participants performed two unrelated, laboratory-based tasks in succession. Learning was manipulated by permitting only the experimental group to retrospectively estimate the duration of the first task before predicting the duration of the second task. Results showed that the experimental group underestimated the duration of the second task less than the control group, which indicates a general kind of learning from previous misestimation. The findings imply that people could be trained to carefully observe how much they misestimate task duration in order to stimulate learning. The findings are discussed in relation to the anchoring account of task duration misestimation and the memory-bias account of the planning fallacy. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York