Risk factors for health impairments in children after hospitalization for acute COVID-19 or MIS-C

ObjectiveTo identify risk factors for persistent impairments after pediatric hospitalization for acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.MethodsAcross 25 U.S. Overcoming COVID-19 Network hospitals, we conducted a prospective cohort study of patients <21-years-old hospitalized for acute COVID-19 or MIS-C (May 2020 to March 2022) surveyed 2- to 4-months post-admission. Multivariable regression was used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsOf 232 children with acute COVID-19, 71 (30.6%) had persistent symptoms and 50 (21.6%) had activity impairments at follow-up; for MIS-C (n = 241), 56 (23.2%) had persistent symptoms and 58 (24.1%) had activity impairments. In adjusted analyses of patients with acute COVID-19, receipt of mechanical ventilation was associated with persistent symptoms [aRR 1.83 (95% CI: 1.07, 3.13)] whereas obesity [aRR 2.18 (95% CI: 1.05, 4.51)] and greater organ system involvement [aRR 1.35 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.61)] were associated with activity impairment. For patients with MIS-C, having a pre-existing respiratory condition was associated with persistent symptoms [aRR 3.04 (95% CI: 1.70, 5.41)] whereas obesity [aRR 1.86 (95% CI: 1.09, 3.15)] and greater organ system involvement [aRR 1.26 (1.00, 1.58)] were associated with activity impairments.DiscussionAmong patients hospitalized, nearly one in three hospitalized with acute COVID-19 and one in four hospitalized with MIS-C had persistent impairments for ≥2 months post-hospitalization. Persistent impairments were associated with more severe illness and underlying health conditions, identifying populations to target for follow-up

Effectiveness of Maternal mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination During Pregnancy Against COVID-19–Associated Hospitalizations in Infants Aged <6 Months During SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Predominance — 20 States, March 9, 2022–May 31, 2023

Infants aged <6 months are not eligible for COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccination during pregnancy has been associated with protection against infant COVID-19–related hospitalization. The Overcoming COVID-19 Network conducted a case-control study during March 9, 2022–May 31, 2023, to evaluate the effectiveness of maternal receipt of a COVID-19 vaccine dose (vaccine effectiveness [VE]) during pregnancy against COVID-19–related hospitalization in infants aged <6 months and a subset of infants aged <3 months. VE was calculated as (1 – adjusted odds ratio) x 100% among all infants aged <6 months and <3 months. Case-patients (infants hospitalized for COVID-19 outside of birth hospitalization and who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result) and control patients (infants hospitalized for COVID-19–like illness with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result) were compared. Odds ratios were determined using multivariable logistic regression, comparing the odds of receipt of a maternal COVID-19 vaccine dose (completion of a 2-dose vaccination series or a third or higher dose) during pregnancy with maternal nonvaccination between case- and control patients. VE of maternal vaccination during pregnancy against COVID-19–related hospitalization was 35% (95% CI = 15%–51%) among infants aged <6 months and 54% (95% CI = 32%–68%) among infants aged <3 months. Intensive care unit admissions occurred in 23% of all case-patients, and invasive mechanical ventilation was more common among infants of unvaccinated (9%) compared with vaccinated mothers (1%) (p = 0.02). Maternal vaccination during pregnancy provides some protection against COVID-19–related hospitalizations among infants, particularly those aged <3 months. Expectant mothers should remain current with COVID-19 vaccination to protect themselves and their infants from hospitalization and severe outcomes associated with COVID-19

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

Background: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. Methods: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Findings: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1–190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8–15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000–1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800–43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200–97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Interpretation: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Funding: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Fil: Wang, Xin. University of Edinburgh; Reino UnidoFil: Li, You. University of Edinburgh; Reino UnidoFil: O'Brien, Katherine L.. University Johns Hopkins; Estados UnidosFil: Madhi, Shabir A.. University of the Witwatersrand; SudáfricaFil: Widdowson, Marc Alain. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Byass, Peter. Umea University; SueciaFil: Omer, Saad B.. Yale School Of Public Health; Estados UnidosFil: Abbas, Qalab. Aga Khan University; PakistánFil: Ali, Asad. Aga Khan University; PakistánFil: Amu, Alberta. Dodowa Health Research Centre; GhanaFil: Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Bassat, Quique. University Of Barcelona; EspañaFil: Abdullah Brooks, W.. University Johns Hopkins; Estados UnidosFil: Chaves, Sandra S.. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Chung, Alexandria. University of Edinburgh; Reino UnidoFil: Cohen, Cheryl. National Institute For Communicable Diseases; SudáfricaFil: Echavarría, Marcela Silvia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. CEMIC-CONICET. Centro de Educaciones Médicas e Investigaciones Clínicas "Norberto Quirno". CEMIC-CONICET; ArgentinaFil: Fasce, Rodrigo A.. Public Health Institute; ChileFil: Gentile, Angela. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Niños "Ricardo Gutiérrez"; ArgentinaFil: Gordon, Aubree. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Groome, Michelle. University of the Witwatersrand; SudáfricaFil: Heikkinen, Terho. University Of Turku; FinlandiaFil: Hirve, Siddhivinayak. Kem Hospital Research Centre; IndiaFil: Jara, Jorge H.. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala; GuatemalaFil: Katz, Mark A.. Clalit Research Institute; IsraelFil: Khuri Bulos, Najwa. University Of Jordan School Of Medicine; JordaniaFil: Krishnan, Anand. All India Institute Of Medical Sciences; IndiaFil: de Leon, Oscar. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala; GuatemalaFil: Lucero, Marilla G.. Research Institute For Tropical Medicine; FilipinasFil: McCracken, John P.. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala; GuatemalaFil: Mira-Iglesias, Ainara. Fundación Para El Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria; EspañaFil: Moïsi, Jennifer C.. Agence de Médecine Préventive; FranciaFil: Munywoki, Patrick K.. No especifíca;Fil: Ourohiré, Millogo. No especifíca;Fil: Polack, Fernando Pedro. Fundación para la Investigación en Infectología Infantil; ArgentinaFil: Rahi, Manveer. University of Edinburgh; Reino UnidoFil: Rasmussen, Zeba A.. National Institutes Of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Rath, Barbara A.. Vienna Vaccine Safety Initiative; AlemaniaFil: Saha, Samir K.. Child Health Research Foundation; BangladeshFil: Simões, Eric A.F.. University of Colorado; Estados UnidosFil: Sotomayor, Viviana. Ministerio de Salud de Santiago de Chile; ChileFil: Thamthitiwat, Somsak. Thailand Ministry Of Public Health; TailandiaFil: Treurnicht, Florette K.. University of the Witwatersrand; SudáfricaFil: Wamukoya, Marylene. African Population & Health Research Center; KeniaFil: Lay-Myint, Yoshida. Nagasaki University; JapónFil: Zar, Heather J.. University of Cape Town; SudáfricaFil: Campbell, Harry. University of Edinburgh; Reino UnidoFil: Nair, Harish. University of Edinburgh; Reino Unid

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children — Initial Therapy and Outcomes

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or be any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.Background: The assessment of real-world effectiveness of immunomodulatory medications for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) may guide therapy. Methods: We analyzed surveillance data on inpatients younger than 21 years of age who had MIS-C and were admitted to 1 of 58 U.S. hospitals between March 15 and October 31, 2020. The effectiveness of initial immunomodulatory therapy (day 0, indicating the first day any such therapy for MIS-C was given) with intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) plus glucocorticoids, as compared with IVIG alone, was evaluated with propensity-score matching and inverse probability weighting, with adjustment for baseline MIS-C severity and demographic characteristics. The primary outcome was cardiovascular dysfunction (a composite of left ventricular dysfunction or shock resulting in the use of vasopressors) on or after day 2. Secondary outcomes included the components of the primary outcome, the receipt of adjunctive treatment (glucocorticoids in patients not already receiving glucocorticoids on day 0, a biologic, or a second dose of IVIG) on or after day 1, and persistent or recurrent fever on or after day 2. Results: A total of 518 patients with MIS-C (median age, 8.7 years) received at least one immunomodulatory therapy; 75% had been previously healthy, and 9 died. In the propensity-score-matched analysis, initial treatment with IVIG plus glucocorticoids (103 patients) was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular dysfunction on or after day 2 than IVIG alone (103 patients) (17% vs. 31%; risk ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.94). The risks of the components of the composite outcome were also lower among those who received IVIG plus glucocorticoids: left ventricular dysfunction occurred in 8% and 17% of the patients, respectively (risk ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.19 to 1.15), and shock resulting in vasopressor use in 13% and 24% (risk ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.00). The use of adjunctive therapy was lower among patients who received IVIG plus glucocorticoids than among those who received IVIG alone (34% vs. 70%; risk ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.65), but the risk of fever was unaffected (31% and 40%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.53 to 1.13). The inverse-probability-weighted analysis confirmed the results of the propensity-score-matched analysis. Conclusions: Among children and adolescents with MIS-C, initial treatment with IVIG plus glucocorticoids was associated with a lower risk of new or persistent cardiovascular dysfunction than IVIG alone. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

Infliximab versus second intravenous immunoglobulin for treatment of resistant Kawasaki disease in the USA (KIDCARE): a randomised, multicentre comparative effectiveness trial

Background Although intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is effective therapy for Kawasaki disease, 10–20% of patients have recrudescent fever as a sign of persistent inflammation and require additional treatment. We aimed to compare infliximab with a second infusion of IVIG for treatment of resistant Kawasaki disease. Methods In this multicentre comparative effectiveness trial, patients (aged 4 weeks to 17 years) with IVIG resistant Kawasaki disease and fever at least 36 h after completion of their first IVIG infusion were recruited from 30 hospitals across the USA. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to second IVIG (2 g/kg over 8–12 h) or intravenous infliximab (10 mg/kg over 2 h without premedication), by using a randomly permuted block randomisation design with block size of two or four. Patients with fever 24 h to 7 days following completion of first study treatment crossed over to receive the other study treatment. The primary outcome measure was resolution of fever at 24 h after initiation of study treatment with no recurrence of fever attributed to Kawasaki disease within 7 days post-discharge. Secondary outcome measures included duration of fever from enrolment, duration of hospitalisation after randomisation, and changes in markers of inflammation and coronary artery Z score. Efficacy was analysed in participants who received treatment and had available outcome values. Safety was analysed in all randomised patients who did not withdraw consent. This clinical trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03065244. Findings Between March 1, 2017, and Aug 31, 2020, 105 patients were randomly assigned to treatment and 103 were included in the intention-to-treat population (54 in the infliximab group, 49 in the second IVIG group). Two patients randomised to infliximab did not receive allocated treatment. The primary outcome was met by 40 (77%) of 52 patients in the infliximab group and 25 (51%) of 49 patients in the second IVIG infusion group (odds ratio 0·31, 95% CI 0·13–0·73, p=0·0076). 31 patients with fever beyond 24 h received crossover treatment: nine (17%) in the infliximab group received second IVIG and 22 (45%) in second IVIG group received infliximab (p=0·0024). Three patients randomly assigned to infliximab and two to second IVIG with fever beyond 24h did not receive crossover treatment. Mean fever days from enrolment was 1·5 (SD 1·4) for the infliximab group and 2·5 (2·5) for the second IVIG group (p=0·014). Mean hospital stay was 3·2 days (2·1) for the infliximab group and 4·5 days (2·5) for the second IVIG group (p<0·001). There was no difference between treatment groups for markers of inflammation or coronary artery outcome. 24 (44%) of 54 patients in the infliximab group and 33 (67%) of 49 in the second IVIG group had at least one adverse event. A drop in haemoglobin concentration of at least 2g/dL was seen in 19 (33%) of 58 patients who received IVIG as either their first or second study treatment (three of whom required transfusion) and in three (7%) of 43 who received only infliximab (none required transfusion; p=0·0028). Haemolytic anaemia was the only serious adverse events deemed definitely or probably related to study treatment, and was reported in nine (15%) of 58 patients who received IVIG as either their first or second study treatment and none who received infliximab only. Interpretation Infliximab is a safe, well tolerated, and effective treatment for patients with IVIG resistant Kawasaki disease, and results in shorter duration of fever, reduced need for additional therapy, less severe anaemia, and shorter hospitalisation compared with second IVIG infusion

Characteristics and Outcomes of US Children and Adolescents With Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Compared With Severe Acute COVID-19

Importance Refinement of criteria for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) may inform efforts to improve health outcomes. Objective To compare clinical characteristics and outcomes of children and adolescents with MIS-C vs those with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Setting, Design, and Participants Case series of 1116 patients aged younger than 21 years hospitalized between March 15 and October 31, 2020, at 66 US hospitals in 31 states. Final date of follow-up was January 5, 2021. Patients with MIS-C had fever, inflammation, multisystem involvement, and positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or antibody test results or recent exposure with no alternate diagnosis. Patients with COVID-19 had positive RT-PCR test results and severe organ system involvement. Exposure SARS-CoV-2. Main Outcomes and Measures Presenting symptoms, organ system complications, laboratory biomarkers, interventions, and clinical outcomes. Multivariable regression was used to compute adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) of factors associated with MIS-C vs COVID-19. Results Of 1116 patients (median age, 9.7 years; 45% female), 539 (48%) were diagnosed with MIS-C and 577 (52%) with COVID-19. Compared with patients with COVID-19, patients with MIS-C were more likely to be 6 to 12 years old (40.8% vs 19.4%; absolute risk difference [RD], 21.4% [95% CI, 16.1%-26.7%]; aRR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.33-1.72] vs 0-5 years) and non-Hispanic Black (32.3% vs 21.5%; RD, 10.8% [95% CI, 5.6%-16.0%]; aRR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.17-1.76] vs White). Compared with patients with COVID-19, patients with MIS-C were more likely to have cardiorespiratory involvement (56.0% vs 8.8%; RD, 47.2% [95% CI, 42.4%-52.0%]; aRR, 2.99 [95% CI, 2.55-3.50] vs respiratory involvement), cardiovascular without respiratory involvement (10.6% vs 2.9%; RD, 7.7% [95% CI, 4.7%-10.6%]; aRR, 2.49 [95% CI, 2.05-3.02] vs respiratory involvement), and mucocutaneous without cardiorespiratory involvement (7.1% vs 2.3%; RD, 4.8% [95% CI, 2.3%-7.3%]; aRR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.84-2.85] vs respiratory involvement). Patients with MIS-C had higher neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (median, 6.4 vs 2.7, P < .001), higher C-reactive protein level (median, 152 mg/L vs 33 mg/L; P < .001), and lower platelet count (<150 ×103 cells/μL [212/523 {41%} vs 84/486 {17%}, P < .001]). A total of 398 patients (73.8%) with MIS-C and 253 (43.8%) with COVID-19 were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 10 (1.9%) with MIS-C and 8 (1.4%) with COVID-19 died during hospitalization. Among patients with MIS-C with reduced left ventricular systolic function (172/503, 34.2%) and coronary artery aneurysm (57/424, 13.4%), an estimated 91.0% (95% CI, 86.0%-94.7%) and 79.1% (95% CI, 67.1%-89.1%), respectively, normalized within 30 days. Conclusions and Relevance This case series of patients with MIS-C and with COVID-19 identified patterns of clinical presentation and organ system involvement. These patterns may help differentiate between MIS-C and COVID-19

Neurologic Involvement in Children and Adolescents Hospitalized in the United States for COVID-19 or Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.Importance Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) affects the nervous system in adult patients. The spectrum of neurologic involvement in children and adolescents is unclear. Objective To understand the range and severity of neurologic involvement among children and adolescents associated with COVID-19. Setting, Design, and Participants Case series of patients (age <21 years) hospitalized between March 15, 2020, and December 15, 2020, with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test result (reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and/or antibody) at 61 US hospitals in the Overcoming COVID-19 public health registry, including 616 (36%) meeting criteria for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Patients with neurologic involvement had acute neurologic signs, symptoms, or diseases on presentation or during hospitalization. Life-threatening involvement was adjudicated by experts based on clinical and/or neuroradiologic features. Exposures Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Main Outcomes and Measures Type and severity of neurologic involvement, laboratory and imaging data, and outcomes (death or survival with new neurologic deficits) at hospital discharge. Results Of 1695 patients (909 [54%] male; median [interquartile range] age, 9.1 [2.4-15.3] years), 365 (22%) from 52 sites had documented neurologic involvement. Patients with neurologic involvement were more likely to have underlying neurologic disorders (81 of 365 [22%]) compared with those without (113 of 1330 [8%]), but a similar number were previously healthy (195 [53%] vs 723 [54%]) and met criteria for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (126 [35%] vs 490 [37%]). Among those with neurologic involvement, 322 (88%) had transient symptoms and survived, and 43 (12%) developed life-threatening conditions clinically adjudicated to be associated with COVID-19, including severe encephalopathy (n = 15; 5 with splenial lesions), stroke (n = 12), central nervous system infection/demyelination (n = 8), Guillain-Barré syndrome/variants (n = 4), and acute fulminant cerebral edema (n = 4). Compared with those without life-threatening conditions (n = 322), those with life-threatening neurologic conditions had higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (median, 12.2 vs 4.4) and higher reported frequency of D-dimer greater than 3 μg/mL fibrinogen equivalent units (21 [49%] vs 72 [22%]). Of 43 patients who developed COVID-19–related life-threatening neurologic involvement, 17 survivors (40%) had new neurologic deficits at hospital discharge, and 11 patients (26%) died. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, many children and adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19 or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children had neurologic involvement, mostly transient symptoms. A range of life-threatening and fatal neurologic conditions associated with COVID-19 infrequently occurred. Effects on long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes are unknown

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015:a systematic review and modelling study

Background: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. Methods: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. Findings: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6–50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7–3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000–74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2–1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700–36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600–149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Interpretation: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group

Diagnostic models predicting paediatric viral acute respiratory infections: a systematic review

Objectives To systematically review and evaluate diagnostic models used to predict viral acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in children.Design Systematic review.Data sources PubMed and Embase were searched from 1 January 1975 to 3 February 2022.Eligibility criteria We included diagnostic models predicting viral ARIs in children (&lt;18 years) who sought medical attention from a healthcare setting and were written in English. Prediction model studies specific to SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children were excluded.Data extraction and synthesis Study screening, data extraction and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. Study characteristics, including population, methods and results, were extracted and evaluated for bias and applicability using the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies and PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool).Results Of 7049 unique studies screened, 196 underwent full text review and 18 were included. The most common outcome was viral-specific influenza (n=7; 58%). Internal validation was performed in 8 studies (44%), 10 studies (56%) reported discrimination measures, 4 studies (22%) reported calibration measures and none performed external validation. According to PROBAST, a high risk of bias was identified in the analytic aspects in all studies. However, the existing studies had minimal bias concerns related to the study populations, inclusion and modelling of predictors, and outcome ascertainment.Conclusions Diagnostic prediction can aid clinicians in aetiological diagnoses of viral ARIs. External validation should be performed on rigorously internally validated models with populations intended for model application.PROSPERO registration number CRD42022308917

Evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of the WHO Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) criteria in Middle Eastern children under two years over three respiratory seasons.

OBJECTIVE:The World Health Organization created the Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) criteria in 2011 to monitor influenza (flu)-related hospitalization. Many studies have since used the SARI case definition as inclusion criteria for surveillance studies. We sought to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the SARI criteria for detecting ten different respiratory viruses in a Middle Eastern pediatric cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS:The data for this study comes from a prospective acute respiratory surveillance study of hospitalized children <2 years in Amman, Jordan from March 16, 2010 to March 31, 2013. Participants were recruited if they had a fever and/or respiratory symptoms. Nasal and throat swabs were obtained and tested by real-time RT-PCR for eleven viruses. Subjects meeting SARI criteria were determined post-hoc. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the SARI case definition for detecting ten different viruses were calculated and results were stratified by age. RESULTS:Of the 3,175 patients enrolled, 3,164 were eligible for this study, with a median age of 3.5 months, 60.4% male, and 82% virus-positive (44% RSV and 3.8% flu). The sensitivity and specificity of the SARI criteria for detecting virus-positive patients were 44% and 77.9%, respectively. Sensitivity of SARI criteria for any virus was lowest in children <3 months at 22.4%. Removing fever as a criterion improved the sensitivity by 65.3% for detecting RSV in children <3 months; whereas when cough was removed, the sensitivity improved by 45.5% for detecting flu in same age group. CONCLUSIONS:The SARI criteria have poor sensitivity for detecting RSV, flu, and other respiratory viruses-particularly in children <3 months. Researchers and policy makers should use caution if using the criteria to estimate burden of disease in children