The effect of post-wildfire management practices on vegetation recovery: Insights from the Sapadere fire, Antalya, Türkiye

Post-wildfire management actions mainly targeting the removal of salvage logs and burned trees is a common but controversial practice. Although it aims to regain some of the natural and economic value of a forest, it also requires disturbing burned areas, which may have some negative consequences affecting, for instance, the carbon cycle, soil erosion, and vegetation cover. Observations from different geographic settings contribute to this scientific debate, and yet, the spatiotemporal evolution of the post-fire road network developed as part of fire management practices and its influence on vegetation recovery has been rarely examined. Specifically, we still lack observations from Türkiye, though wildfires are a common event. This research examined the evolution of the vegetation cover in relation to post-fire road constructions and the resultant debris materials in areas affected by the 2017 Sapadere fire in Antalya, Türkiye. We used multi-sensor, multi-temporal optical satellite data and monitored the variation in both vegetation cover and road network from the pre-to post-fire periods between 2014 and 2021. Our results showed that fire management practices almost doubled the road network in the post-fire period, from 487 km to 900 km. Overall, 7% of the burned area was affected by these practices. As a result, vegetation cover in those areas shows only ∼50% recovery, whereas undisturbed areas exhibit ∼100% recovery 5 years after the event. Notably, such spatiotemporal analysis carried out for different burned areas would provide a better insight into the most suitable post-fire management practices. Our findings, in particular, show that the current practices need to be revisited as they cause a delay in vegetation recovery

Could road constructions be more hazardous than an earthquake in terms of mass movement?

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of mass movements over time has rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on mass movements for a 11-year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the mass movements are much larger than in the naturally occurring comparison area. This means that the sediment load originating from the anthropogenically induced mass movements is larger than its counterpart associated with naturally occurring landslides. Notably, this extra sediment load could cause river channel aggregation, reduce accommodation space and as a consequence, it could lead to an increase in the probability and severity of flooding along the river channel. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. We also compare frequency-area distributions of human-induced mass movements mapped in this study and co-seismic landslide inventories from the literature. By doing so, we aim to better understand the consequences of human effects on mass movements in a comparative manner. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction in terms of sediment loads to river channels is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw = 6.0

Rapid prediction of the magnitude scale of landslide events triggered by an earthquake

A landslide event is characterized by the distribution of landslides caused by a single triggering event. The severity of earthquake-induced landslide events can be quantified by the landslide-event magnitude, a metric derived from the frequency-size distribution of landslide inventories. However, reliable landslide inventories are not available for all earthquakes, because the preparation of a suitable inventory requires data, time, and expertise. Prediction of landslide-event magnitude immediately following an earthquake provides an estimate of the total landslide area and volume based on empirical relations. It allows to make an assessment of the severity of a landslide event in near-real time and to estimate the frequency-size distribution curve of the landslides. In this study, we used 23 earthquake-induced landslide inventories and propose a method to predict landslide-event magnitude. We selected five predictors, both morphometric and seismogenic, which are globally and readily available. We used the predictors within a stepwise linear regression and validated using the leave-one-out technique. We show that our approach successfully predicts landslide-event magnitude values and provides results along with their statistical significance and confidence levels. However, to test the validity of the approach globally, it should be calibrated using a larger and more representative dataset. A global, near real-time assessments regarding landslide-event magnitude scale can then be achieved by retrieving the readily available ShakeMaps, along with topographic and thematic information, and applying the calibrated model. The results may provide valuable information regarding landscape evolution processes, landslide hazard assessments, and contribute to the rapid emergency response after earthquakes in mountainous terrain

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping of cryospheric hazards in a high-Arctic environment: Svalbard Archipelago

The Svalbard Archipelago represents the northernmost place on Earth where cryospheric hazards, such as thaw slumps (TSs) and thermo-erosion gullies (TEGs) could take place and rapidly develop under the influence of climatic variations. Svalbard permafrost is specifically sensitive to rapidly occurring warming, and therefore, a deeper understanding of TSs and TEGs is necessary to understand and foresee the dynamics behind local cryospheric hazards' occurrences and their global implications. We present the latest update of two polygonal inventories where the extent of TSs and TEGs is recorded across Nordenskiöld Land (Svalbard Archipelago), over a surface of approximately 4000ĝ€¯km2. This area was chosen because it represents the most concentrated ice-free area of the Svalbard Archipelago and, at the same time, where most of the current human settlements are concentrated. The inventories were created through the visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial photographs as part of our ongoing effort toward creating a pan-Arctic repository of TSs and TEGs. Overall, we mapped 562 TSs and 908 TEGs, from which we separately generated two susceptibility maps using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach, under the assumption that TSs and TEGs manifest across Nordenskiöld Land, according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. Once the modelling results were validated, the two susceptibility patterns were combined into the first multi-hazard cryospheric susceptibility map of the area. The two inventories are available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.945348 (Nicu et al., 2022a) and 10.1594/PANGAEA.945395 (Nicu et al., 2022b)

A closer look at factors governing landslide recovery time in post-seismic periods

Earthquakes increase landslide susceptibility in post-seismic periods. The time required for restoring pre-earthquake susceptibility levels is defined as landslide recovery time. Overall, stronger earthquakes are associated with relatively long recovery times in the literature. However, the seismic effect does not explain the whole process. This paper provides insight into factors governing this process. We hypothesize that the dominant post-seismic landsliding process (i.e., new or remobilized landslides), which is governed by the interactions between co-seismic landslide deposits and seismotectonic, morphologic and climatic conditions of a site, is the key to understand the physics behind the landslide recovery time. To test this argument, we analyze 11 earthquake-affected areas associated with seismic variables (i.e., earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration) and four environmental factors: (1) the fraction of area affected by co-seismic landslides (FAAL), (2) local relief, (3) average daily precipitation of extreme events (mm/day) and (4) rainfall seasonality. Our findings show that in areas with limited co-seismic landslide deposits (FAAL ~1%), then remobilization of material takes the role of the dominant mechanism and recovery may take longer than a year

The Eurasian epicontinental sea was an important carbon sink during the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 56 million years ago) offers a primary analogue for future global warming and carbon cycle recovery. Yet, where and how massive carbon emissions were mitigated during this climate warming event remains largely unknown. Here we show that organic carbon burial in the vast epicontinental seaways that extended over Eurasia provided a major carbon sink during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. We coupled new and existing stratigraphic analyses to a detailed paleogeographic framework and using spatiotemporal interpolation calculated ca. 720–1300 Gt organic carbon excess burial, focused in the eastern parts of the Eurasian epicontinental seaways. A much larger amount (2160–3900 Gt C, and when accounting for the increase in inundated shelf area 7400–10300 Gt C) could have been sequestered in similar environments globally. With the disappearance of most epicontinental seas since the Oligocene-Miocene, an effective negative carbon cycle feedback also disappeared making the modern carbon cycle critically dependent on the slower silicate weathering feedback

The Eurasian epicontinental sea was an important carbon sink during the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum

International audienceThe Eurasian Epicontinental Sea sequestered 720-1300 Gt of organic carbon during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, according to a palaeogeographic reconstruction and multi-proxy data from a sedimentary sequence in the Tarim Basin, China.The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 56 million years ago) offers a primary analogue for future global warming and carbon cycle recovery. Yet, where and how massive carbon emissions were mitigated during this climate warming event remains largely unknown. Here we show that organic carbon burial in the vast epicontinental seaways that extended over Eurasia provided a major carbon sink during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. We coupled new and existing stratigraphic analyses to a detailed paleogeographic framework and using spatiotemporal interpolation calculated ca. 720-1300 Gt organic carbon excess burial, focused in the eastern parts of the Eurasian epicontinental seaways. A much larger amount (2160-3900 Gt C, and when accounting for the increase in inundated shelf area 7400-10300 Gt C) could have been sequestered in similar environments globally. With the disappearance of most epicontinental seas since the Oligocene-Miocene, an effective negative carbon cycle feedback also disappeared making the modern carbon cycle critically dependent on the slower silicate weathering feedback

Presentation and Analysis of a Worldwide Database of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories

International audienceEarthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development