Spatial-Explicit Modeling of Social Vulnerability to Malaria in East Africa.

Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups

Designkonzept für eine Webanwendung zum Zugriff auf eine interdisziplinäre und multinationale Datenbank zur Erfassung Tinnitus-geschädigter Patienten

Tinnitus ist ein weit verbreitetes Symptom, bei welchem die Betroffenen Geräusche im Ohr wahrnehmen. Ein Viertel der Bevölkerung der Industrieländer ist bereits betroffen und jährlich erkranken weitere 270.000 Personen an Tinnitus. Diese Geräusche können in verschiedenen Eigenarten auftreten und auf verschiedene Weisen diagnostiziert und therapiert werden. Die Tinnitus Datenbank ermöglicht Ärzten weltweit, detaillierte Informationen über Tinnitus-Betroffene zu speichern und zu verwalten. Dieses System wurde 2008 entwickelt und wird seither von der Tinnitus Research Initiative (TRI) verwaltet und benutzt. Der Hauptsitz der TRI befindet sich in Regensburg, jedoch gibt es weltweit 26 Zentren, in denen die Patientendaten eingegeben werden können. Im System können Patienten angelegt und verwaltet werden. Die Patienten bekommen mehrere Fragebögen zur Diagnose des Tinnitus und ihres Befindens ausgeteilt, welche dann online übertragen werden können. Nach der Übertragung sind sowohl grafische, als auch statistische Auswertungen abrufbar. Durch eine kritische Analyse des Systems werden viele Schwachstellen sichtbar, welche mithilfe einer neuen Version behoben werden sollen. Im Rahmen des Konzeptes steht, die gesamte Oberfläche des Systems zu überarbeiten und um einige neue Funktionalitäten zu erweitern. In dieser Arbeit wurde die vorhandene Tinnitus Datenbank analysiert, um mögliche Schwachstellen und Kritikpunkte herauszufinden. Anhand der ermittelten Ergebnisse und einer Liste von Anforderungen, welche die optimierte Variante erfüllen muss, wurden erste Entwürfe erstellt. Diese Entwürfe wurden in mehreren Meetings und Konferenzen mit den Auftraggebern angepasst und erweitert. Im Anschluss daran wird der finale Entwurf vorgestellt und auf mögliche Umsetzungstechniken eingegangen

Global patterns of disaster and climate risk — an analysis of the consistency of leading index-based assessments and their results

Indices assessing country-level climate and disaster risk at the global scale have experienced a steep rise in popularity both in science and international climate policy. A number of widely cited products have been developed and published over the recent years, argued to contribute critical knowledge for prioritizing action and funding. However, it remains unclear how their results compare, and how consistent their findings are on country-level risk, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper analyses and compares the design, data, and results of four of the leading global climate and disaster risk indices: The World Risk Index, the INFORM Risk Index, ND-GAIN Index, and the Climate Risk Index. Our analysis clearly shows that there is considerable degree of cross-index variation regarding countries’ risk levels and comparative ranks. At the same time, there is above-average agreement for high-risk countries. In terms of risk sub-components, there is surprisingly little agreement in the results on hazard exposure, while strong inter-index correlations can be observed when ranking countries according to their socio-economic vulnerability and lack of coping as well as adaptive capacity. Vulnerability and capacity hotspots can hence be identified more robustly than risk and exposure hotspots. Our findings speak both to the potential as well as limitations of index-based approaches. They show that a solid understanding of index-based assessment tools, and their conceptual and methodological underpinnings, is necessary to navigate them properly and interpret as well as use their results in triangulation

Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards

Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies

Ciliogenesis and cerebrospinal fluid flow in the developing Xenopus brain are regulated by foxj1

Background: Circulation of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) through the ventricular system is driven by motile cilia on ependymal cells of the brain. Disturbed ciliary motility induces the formation of hydrocephalus, a pathological accumulation of CSF resulting in ventricle dilatation and increased intracranial pressure. The mechanism by which loss of motile cilia causes hydrocephalus has not been elucidated. The aim of this study was: (1) to provide a detailed account of the development of ciliation in the brain of the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis; and (2) to analyze the relevance of ependymal cilia motility for CSF circulation and brain ventricle morphogenesis in Xenopus. Methods: Gene expression analysis of foxj1, the bona fide marker for motile cilia, was used to identify potentially ciliated regions in the developing central nervous system (CNS) of the tadpole. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to reveal the distribution of mono- and multiciliated cells during successive stages of brain morphogenesis, which was functionally assessed by bead injection and video microscopy of ventricular CSF flow. An antisense morpholino oligonucleotide (MO)-mediated gene knock-down that targeted foxj1 in the CNS was applied to assess the role of motile cilia in the ventricles. Results: RNA transcripts of foxj1 in the CNS were found from neurula stages onwards. Following neural tube closure, foxj1 expression was seen in distinct ventricular regions such as the zona limitans intrathalamica (ZLI), subcommissural organ (SCO), floor plate, choroid plexus (CP), and rhombomere boundaries. In all areas, expression of foxj1 preceded the outgrowth of monocilia and the subsequent switch to multiciliated ependymal cells. Cilia were absent in foxj1 morphants, causing impaired CSF flow and fourth ventricle hydrocephalus in tadpole-stage embryos. Conclusions: Motile ependymal cilia are important organelles in the Xenopus CNS, as they are essential for the circulation of CSF and maintenance of homeostatic fluid pressure. The Xenopus CNS ventricles might serve as a novel model system for the analysis of human ciliary genes whose deficiency cause hydrocephalus

Microbiology in nuclear waste disposal: interfaces and reaction fronts

It is now generally acknowledged that microbial populations will be present within nuclear waste repositories and that the consequences of such activity on repository performance must be assessed. Various modelling approaches - based either on mass balance/thermodynamics or on kinetics - have been developed to provide scoping estimates of the possible development of these populations. Past work has focused on particular areas of the repository which can be considered relatively homogeneous and hence can be represented by some kind of ‘box' or ‘mixing tank'. In reality, however, waste repositories include a range of engineering materials (steel, concrete, etc.) which are emplaced at depth in a rock formation. Strong chemical gradients - of the type which may be exploited by lithoautotrophic microbial populations - are likely to be found at the contacts between different materials and at the interface between the engineered structures and the host rock. Over the long timescales considered, solute transport processes will cause the locations of strong chemical gradients to move, forming reaction fronts. The high-pH plume resulting from the leaching of cement/concrete in some repository types is a particularly important example of such a reaction front. Redox fronts, which may occur in different areas of all kinds of repositories, also play an important role and would be locations where microbial activity is likely to be significant. In this paper, the key microbial processes expected at (or around) interfaces and fronts will be discussed, with particular emphasis on the development of quantitative models. The applicability of the models used will be tested by considering similar fronts which can be found in natural system

Defect detection by multi-axis infrared process monitoring of laser beam directed energy deposition

Laser beam directed energy deposition (DED-LB) is an attractive additive manufacturing technique to produce versatile and complex 3D structures on demand, apply a cladding, or repair local defects. However, the quality of manufactured parts is difficult to assess by inspection prior to completion, and parts must be extensively inspected post-production to ensure conformance. Consequently, critical defects occurring during the build go undetected. In this work, a new monitoring system combining three infrared cameras along different optical axes capable of monitoring melt pool geometry and vertical displacement throughout deposition is reported. By combining multiple sensor data, an automated algorithm is developed which is capable of identifying the formation of structural features and defects. An intersecting, thin-walled geometry is used to demonstrate the capability of the system to detect process-induced porosity in samples with narrow intersection angles, which is validated using micro-CT observations. The recorded results indicate the root cause of this process-induced porosity at the intersection, and it is shown that advanced toolpath planning can eliminate such defects. The presented methodology demonstrates the value of multi-axis monitoring for identifying both defects and structural features, providing an advancement towards automated detection and alert systems in DED-LB

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts

Vulnerability assessment for the eastern African region to identify hotspots

The output of this task identifies vulnerable sub-regions within the five country study area that can serve as the locus of higher resolution analysis and for testing adaptation strategies