Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

The Sunrise Mission

The first science flight of the balloon-borne \Sunrise telescope took place in June 2009 from ESRANGE (near Kiruna/Sweden) to Somerset Island in northern Canada. We describe the scientific aims and mission concept of the project and give an overview and a description of the various hardware components: the 1-m main telescope with its postfocus science instruments (the UV filter imager SuFI and the imaging vector magnetograph IMaX) and support instruments (image stabilizing and light distribution system ISLiD and correlating wavefront sensor CWS), the optomechanical support structure and the instrument mounting concept, the gondola structure and the power, pointing, and telemetry systems, and the general electronics architecture. We also explain the optimization of the structural and thermal design of the complete payload. The preparations for the science flight are described, including AIV and ground calibration of the instruments. The course of events during the science flight is outlined, up to the recovery activities. Finally, the in-flight performance of the instrumentation is briefly summarized.Comment: 35 pages, 17 figure

Diffuse Glioneuronal tumour with Oligodendroglioma‐like features and Nuclear Clusters (DGONC) – a molecularly‐defined glioneuronal CNS tumour class displaying recurrent monosomy 14

Aims: DNA methylation-based central nervous system (CNS) tumour classification has identified numerous molecularly distinct tumour types, and clinically relevant subgroups among known CNS tumour entities that were previously thought to represent homogeneous diseases. Our study aimed at characterizing a novel, molecularly defined variant of glioneuronal CNS tumour. Patients and methods: DNA methylation profiling was performed using the Infinium MethylationEPIC or 450 k BeadChip arrays (Illumina) and analysed using the 'conumee' package in R computing environment. Additional gene panel sequencing was also performed. Tumour samples were collected at the German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ) and provided by multinational collaborators. Histological sections were also collected and independently reviewed. Results: Genome-wide DNA methylation data from >25 000 CNS tumours were screened for clusters separated from established DNA methylation classes, revealing a novel group comprising 31 tumours, mainly found in paediatric patients. This DNA methylation-defined variant of low-grade CNS tumours with glioneuronal differentiation displays recurrent monosomy 14, nuclear clusters within a morphology that is otherwise reminiscent of oligodendroglioma and other established entities with clear cell histology, and a lack of genetic alterations commonly observed in other (paediatric) glioneuronal entities. Conclusions: DNA methylation-based tumour classification is an objective method of assessing tumour origins, which may aid in diagnosis, especially for atypical cases. With increasing sample size, methylation analysis allows for the identification of rare, putative new tumour entities, which are currently not recognized by the WHO classification. Our study revealed the existence of a DNA methylation-defined class of low-grade glioneuronal tumours with recurrent monosomy 14, oligodendroglioma-like features and nuclear clusters

Growth and cycles of the Italian economy since 1861: the new evidence

Based on a newly-available large set of historical national accounts, the paper revisits the main features of economic growth and cycles in Italy for the post-Unification period 1861-2011. Alongside the structural changes in growth dynamics, the main sources of output and productivity growth are identified. As regards the analysis of the underlying cyclical component, a business cycle chronology is first established and then both the specific patterns of individual cycles and the co-movements of output with key macroeconomic variables are investigated. In the 150 years since its political Unification, Italy's economic growth was mainly propelled by consumption and investments, whereas on the supply side the industry and services sectors were by far the main contributors, also because of the positive effect of labour reallocation to nonfarm activities. Over the same period, Italy experienced approximately 20 business cycles of varying duration and amplitude. Output fluctuations were dominated by the short-term variability of agricultural production before World War II and by fluctuations of the industry sector thereafter. The cyclical behaviour exhibited by aggregate demand components conforms quite well to that evidenced in the standard international business cycle literature, although some exceptions arise in the pre-World War II years

Molecular, pathological, radiological, and immune profiling of non-brainstem pediatric high-grade glioma from the HERBY phase II randomized trial

The HERBY trial was a phase II open-label, randomized, multicenter trial evaluating bevacizumab (BEV) in addition to temozolomide/radiotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed non-brainstem high-grade glioma (HGG) between the ages of 3 and 18 years. We carried out comprehensive molecular analysis integrated with pathology, radiology, and immune profiling. In post-hoc subgroup analysis, hypermutator tumors (mismatch repair deficiency and somatic POLE/POLD1 mutations) and those biologically resembling pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma ([PXA]-like, driven by BRAF_V600E or NF1 mutation) had significantly more CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and longer survival with the addition of BEV. Histone H3 subgroups (hemispheric G34R/V and midline K27M) had a worse outcome and were immune cold. Future clinical trials will need to take into account the diversity represented by the term ‘‘HGG’’ in the pediatric population

Therapeutic implications of improved molecular diagnostics for rare CNS-embryonal tumor entities: results of an international, retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Only few data are available on treatment-associated behavior of distinct rare CNS-embryonal tumor entities previously treated as "CNS-primitive neuroectodermal tumors" (CNS-PNET). Respective data on specific entities, including CNS neuroblastoma, FOXR2 activated (CNS NB-FOXR2), and embryonal tumor with multi-layered rosettes (ETMR) are needed for development of differentiated treatment strategies. METHODS: Within this retrospective, international study, tumor samples of clinically well-annotated patients with the original diagnosis of CNS-PNET were analyzed using DNA methylation arrays (n=307). Additional cases (n=66) with DNA methylation pattern of CNS NB-FOXR2 were included irrespective of initial histological diagnosis. Pooled clinical data (n=292) were descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: DNA methylation profiling of "CNS-PNET" classified 58(19%) cases as ETMR, 57(19%) as HGG, 36(12%) as CNS NB-FOXR2, and 89(29%) cases were classified into 18 other entities. Sixty-seven (22%) cases did not show DNA methylation patterns similar to established CNS tumor reference classes. Best treatment results were achieved for CNS NB-FOXR2 patients (5-year PFS: 63%±7%, OS: 85%±5%, n=63), with 35/42 progression-free survivors after upfront craniospinal irradiation (CSI) and chemotherapy. The worst outcome was seen for ETMR and HGG patients with 5-year PFS of 18%±6% and 22%±7%, and 5-year OS of 24%±6% and 25%±7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The historically reported poor outcome of CNS-PNET patients becomes highly variable when tumors are molecularly classified based on DNA methylation profiling. Patients with CNS NB-FOXR2 responded well to current treatments and a standard-risk-CSI based regimen may be prospectively evaluated. The poor outcome of ETMR across applied treatment strategies substantiates the necessity for evaluation of novel treatments