How Useful are Regime-Switching Models in Banking Crises Identification?

We employ a regime-switching approach to the identification of banking crises. This approach reduces the arbitrariness in crisis identification by endogenizing the choices of crisis threshold and crisis duration. Using a sample of 47 countries, we show that this approach also subject to several same problems as the common procedures. The method is sample-dependent, tends to invent much more crises, and is less robust to different model specifications. We conclude that a bind application of regime switching model to crisis identification is questionableMarkov-switching model, choice of crisis threshold, banking crises identification

Money market pressure and the determinants of baning crises

Identifying banking crises is the first step in the research on determinants of banking crises. The prevailing practice is to employ market events to identify a banking crisis. Researchers justify the usage of this method on the grounds that either direct and reliable indicators of banks’ assets quality are not available, or that withdrawals of bank deposits are no longer a part of financial crises in a modern financial system with deposits insurance. Meanwhile, most researchers also admit that there are inherent inconsistency and arbitrariness associated with the events method. This paper develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method and show that it is desirable, and also possible, to depend on a more objective index of money market pressure rather than market events to identify banking crises. This approach allows one to employ high frequency data in regression, and avoid the ambiguity problem in interpreting the direction of causality that most banking literature suffers. Comparing the crises dates with existing research indicates that the new method is able to identify banking crises more accurately than the events method. The two components of the index, changes in central bank funds to bank deposits ratio and changes in short-term real interest rate, are equally important in the identification of banking crises. Bank deposits, combined with central bank funds, provide valuable information on banking distress. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We estimate conditional logit models that include macroeconomic, financial, and institutional variables in the explanatory variables. The results display similarities to and differences with existing research. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible. --

Professor Jeremiah Jenks of Cornell University and the 1903 Chinese Monetary Reform

The Boxer uprising in China (1900) killed quite a number of foreigners and missionaries, which induced the armies of eight Western powers to invade China and they imposed an indemnity of 400 million silver taels. The international silver price around the 1900s was slumping, and these indemnity-treaty powers (e.g. France, UK, Germany, and Belgium) strongly wished China to establish a silver monetary system that would be maintained at parity with gold. Professor Jeremiah Jenks (1856-1929) of Cornell University was mandated to establish a gold-exchange standard for China. This paper begins with Jenks's life and work and the background of his mission to China. Section 2 presents the basic principle of this reform project and its specific designs. Section 3 assesses reactions and criticisms on Jenks's proposal. Possible arbitrage activities between gold and silver are analyzed in Sections 4 in order to evaluate the sustainability of Jenks's system. We conclude that: (1) Jenks's new systemm ight have been stable in 1904-16 and 1928-30; (2) technically speaking, this was a remarkable design.Professor Jeremiah Jenks (1856-1929), Chinese monetary reform of 1903, gol-dexchange standard, silver standard

Intrathecal lidocaine pretreatment attenuates immediate neuropathic pain by modulating Nav1.3 expression and decreasing spinal microglial activation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intrathecal lidocaine reverses tactile allodynia after nerve injury, but whether neuropathic pain is attenuated by intrathecal lidocaine pretreatment is uncertain.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty six adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three treatment groups: (1) sham (Group S), which underwent removal of the L₆transverse process; (2) ligated (Group L), which underwent left L₅spinal nerve ligation (SNL); and (3) pretreated (Group P), which underwent L₅SNL and was pretreated with intrathecal 2% lidocaine (50 μl). Neuropathic pain was assessed based on behavioral responses to thermal and mechanical stimuli. Expression of sodium channels (Nav_1.3and Nav_1.8) in injured dorsal root ganglia and microglial proliferation/activation in the spinal cord were measured on post-operative days 3 (POD₃) and 7 (POD₇).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Group L presented abnormal behavioral responses indicative of mechanical allodynia and thermal hyperalgesia, exhibited up-regulation of Nav_1.3and down-regulation of Nav_1.8, and showed increased microglial activation. Compared with ligation only, pretreatment with intrathecal lidocaine before nerve injury (Group P), as measured on POD₃, palliated both mechanical allodynia (<it>p </it>< 0.01) and thermal hyperalgesia (<it>p </it>< 0.001), attenuated Nav_1.3up-regulation (<it>p </it>= 0.003), and mitigated spinal microglial activation (<it>p </it>= 0.026) by inhibiting phosphorylation (activation) of p38 MAP kinase (<it>p </it>= 0.034). p38 activation was also suppressed on POD₇(<it>p </it>= 0.002).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Intrathecal lidocaine prior to SNL blunts the response to noxious stimuli by attenuating Nav_1.3up-regulation and suppressing activation of spinal microglia. Although its effects are limited to 3 days, intrathecal lidocaine pretreatment can alleviate acute SNL-induced neuropathic pain.</p

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in Asian populations.

PURPOSE: Non-European populations are under-represented in genetics studies, hindering clinical implementation of breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We aimed to develop PRSs using the largest available studies of Asian ancestry and to assess the transferability of PRS across ethnic subgroups. METHODS: The development data set comprised 138,309 women from 17 case-control studies. PRSs were generated using a clumping and thresholding method, lasso penalized regression, an Empirical Bayes approach, a Bayesian polygenic prediction approach, or linear combinations of multiple PRSs. These PRSs were evaluated in 89,898 women from 3 prospective studies (1592 incident cases). RESULTS: The best performing PRS (genome-wide set of single-nucleotide variations [formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism]) had a hazard ratio per unit SD of 1.62 (95% CI = 1.46-1.80) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.635 (95% CI = 0.622-0.649). Combined Asian and European PRSs (333 single-nucleotide variations) had a hazard ratio per SD of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.37-1.71) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.608-0.635). The distribution of the latter PRS was different across ethnic subgroups, confirming the importance of population-specific calibration for valid estimation of breast cancer risk. CONCLUSION: PRSs developed in this study, from association data from multiple ancestries, can enhance risk stratification for women of Asian ancestry

Genome-Wide Association Study of Young-Onset Hypertension in the Han Chinese Population of Taiwan

Young-onset hypertension has a stronger genetic component than late-onset counterpart; thus, the identification of genes related to its susceptibility is a critical issue for the prevention and management of this disease. We carried out a two-stage association scan to map young-onset hypertension susceptibility genes. The first-stage analysis, a genome-wide association study, analyzed 175 matched case-control pairs; the second-stage analysis, a confirmatory association study, verified the results at the first stage based on a total of 1,008 patients and 1,008 controls. Single-locus association tests, multilocus association tests and pair-wise gene-gene interaction tests were performed to identify young-onset hypertension susceptibility genes. After considering stringent adjustments of multiple testing, gene annotation and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) quality, four SNPs from two SNP triplets with strong association signals (−log10(p)>7) and 13 SNPs from 8 interactive SNP pairs with strong interactive signals (−log10(p)>8) were carefully re-examined. The confirmatory study verified the association for a SNP quartet 219 kb and 495 kb downstream of LOC344371 (a hypothetical gene) and RASGRP3 on chromosome 2p22.3, respectively. The latter has been implicated in the abnormal vascular responsiveness to endothelin-1 and angiotensin II in diabetic-hypertensive rats. Intrinsic synergy involving IMPG1 on chromosome 6q14.2-q15 was also verified. IMPG1 encodes interphotoreceptor matrix proteoglycan 1 which has cation binding capacity. The genes are novel hypertension targets identified in this first genome-wide hypertension association study of the Han Chinese population

Identification of IGF1, SLC4A4, WWOX, and SFMBT1 as Hypertension Susceptibility Genes in Han Chinese with a Genome-Wide Gene-Based Association Study

Hypertension is a complex disorder with high prevalence rates all over the world. We conducted the first genome-wide gene-based association scan for hypertension in a Han Chinese population. By analyzing genome-wide single-nucleotide-polymorphism data of 400 matched pairs of young-onset hypertensive patients and normotensive controls genotyped with the Illumina HumanHap550-Duo BeadChip, 100 susceptibility genes for hypertension were identified and also validated with permutation tests. Seventeen of the 100 genes exhibited differential allelic and expression distributions between patient and control groups. These genes provided a good molecular signature for classifying hypertensive patients and normotensive controls. Among the 17 genes, IGF1, SLC4A4, WWOX, and SFMBT1 were not only identified by our gene-based association scan and gene expression analysis but were also replicated by a gene-based association analysis of the Hong Kong Hypertension Study. Moreover, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci associated with the differentially expressed genes were found and linked to hypertension. IGF1, which encodes insulin-like growth factor 1, is associated with cardiovascular disorders, metabolic syndrome, decreased body weight/size, and changes of insulin levels in mice. SLC4A4, which encodes the electrogenic sodium bicarbonate cotransporter 1, is associated with decreased body weight/size and abnormal ion homeostasis in mice. WWOX, which encodes the WW domain-containing protein, is related to hypoglycemia and hyperphosphatemia. SFMBT1, which encodes the scm-like with four MBT domains protein 1, is a novel hypertension gene. GRB14, TMEM56 and KIAA1797 exhibited highly significant differential allelic and expressed distributions between hypertensive patients and normotensive controls. GRB14 was also found relevant to blood pressure in a previous genetic association study in East Asian populations. TMEM56 and KIAA1797 may be specific to Taiwanese populations, because they were not validated by the two replication studies. Identification of these genes enriches the collection of hypertension susceptibility genes, thereby shedding light on the etiology of hypertension in Han Chinese populations

Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Background: Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results: To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions: Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.Peer reviewe

Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis

Funding GMP, PN, and CW are supported by NHLBI R01HL127564. GMP and PN are supported by R01HL142711. AG acknowledge support from the Wellcome Trust (201543/B/16/Z), European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007–2013 under grant agreement no. HEALTH-F2-2013–601456 (CVGenes@Target) & the TriPartite Immunometabolism Consortium [TrIC]-Novo Nordisk Foundation’s Grant number NNF15CC0018486. JMM is supported by American Diabetes Association Innovative and Clinical Translational Award 1–19-ICTS-068. SR was supported by the Academy of Finland Center of Excellence in Complex Disease Genetics (Grant No 312062), the Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, the Sigrid Juselius Foundation, and University of Helsinki HiLIFE Fellow and Grand Challenge grants. EW was supported by the Finnish innovation fund Sitra (EW) and Finska Läkaresällskapet. CNS was supported by American Heart Association Postdoctoral Fellowships 15POST24470131 and 17POST33650016. Charles N Rotimi is supported by Z01HG200362. Zhe Wang, Michael H Preuss, and Ruth JF Loos are supported by R01HL142302. NJT is a Wellcome Trust Investigator (202802/Z/16/Z), is the PI of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (MRC & WT 217065/Z/19/Z), is supported by the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215–2001) and the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (MC_UU_00011), and works within the CRUK Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme (C18281/A19169). Ruth E Mitchell is a member of the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol funded by the MRC (MC_UU_00011/1). Simon Haworth is supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research Academic Clinical Fellowship. Paul S. de Vries was supported by American Heart Association grant number 18CDA34110116. Julia Ramierz acknowledges support by the People Programme of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme grant n° 608765 and Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant n° 786833. Maria Sabater-Lleal is supported by a Miguel Servet contract from the ISCIII Spanish Health Institute (CP17/00142) and co-financed by the European Social Fund. Jian Yang is funded by the Westlake Education Foundation. Olga Giannakopoulou has received funding from the British Heart Foundation (BHF) (FS/14/66/3129). CHARGE Consortium cohorts were supported by R01HL105756. Study-specific acknowledgements are available in the Additional file 32: Supplementary Note. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; the National Institutes of Health; or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk