Not All Missed Doses Are the Same: Sustained NNRTI Treatment Interruptions Predict HIV Rebound at Low-to-Moderate Adherence Levels

Background: While the relationship between average adherence to HIV potent antiretroviral therapy is well defined, the relationship between patterns of adherence within adherence strata has not been investigated. We examined medication event monitoring system (MEMS) defined adherence patterns and their relation to subsequent virologic rebound. Methods and Results: We selected subjects with at least 3-months of previous virologic suppression on a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen from two prospective cohorts in France and North America. We assessed the risk of virologic rebound, defined as HIV RNA of >400 copies/mL according to several MEMS adherence measurements. Seventy two subjects were studied, five of them experienced virologic rebound. Subjects with and without virologic rebound had similar baseline characteristics including treatment durations, regimen (efavirenz vs nevirapine), and dosing schedule. Each 10% increase in average adherence decreased the risk of virologic rebound (OR = 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.37, 0.81], P<0.002). Each additional consecutive day off therapy for the longest treatment interruption (OR = 1.34; 95%CI [1.15, 1.68], P<0.0001) and each additional treatment interruption for more than 2 days (OR = 1.38; 95%CI [1.13, 1.77], P<0.002) increased the risk of virologic rebound. In those with low-to-moderate adherence (i.e. <80%), treatment interruption duration (16.2 days versus 6.1 days in the control group, P<0.02), but not average adherence (53.1% vs 55.9%, respectively, P = 0.65) was significantly associated with virologic rebound. Conclusions: Sustained treatment interruption may pose a greater risk of virologic rebound on NNRTI therapy than the same number of interspersed missed doses at low-to-moderate adherence

Risk of cardiovascular events from current, recent, and cumulative exposure to abacavir among persons living with HIV who were receiving antiretroviral therapy in the United States: a cohort study

Abstract Background There is ongoing controversy regarding abacavir use in the treatment of HIV infection and the risk of subsequent development of cardiovascular disease. It is unclear how the risk varies as exposure accumulates. Methods Using an administrative health-plan dataset, risk of cardiovascular disease events (CVDe), defined as the first episode of an acute myocardial infarction or a coronary intervention procedure, associated with abacavir exposure was assessed among HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy across the U.S. from October 2009 through December 2014. The data were longitudinal, and analyzed using marginal structural models. Results Over 114,470 person-years (n = 72,733) of ART exposure, 714 CVDe occurred at an incidence rate (IR) (95% CI) of 6·23 (5·80, 6·71)/1000 person-years. Individuals exposed to abacavir had a higher IR of CVDe of 9·74 (8·24, 11·52)/1000 person-years as compared to 5·75 (5·30, 6·24)/1000 person-years for those exposed to other antiretroviral agents. The hazard (HR; 95% CI) of CVDe was increased for current (1·43; 1·18, 1·73), recent (1·41; 1·16, 1·70), and cumulative [(1·18; 1·06, 1·31) per year] exposure to abacavir. The risk for cumulative exposure followed a bell-shaped dose-response curve peaking at 24-months of exposure. Risk was similarly elevated among participants free of pre-existing heart disease or history of illicit substance use at baseline. Conclusion Current, recent, and cumulative use of abacavir was associated with an increased risk of CVDe. The findings were consistent irrespective of underlying cardiovascular risk factors

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Effect of Statin Therapy in Reducing the Risk of Serious Non-AIDS-Defining Events and Nonaccidental Death

BackgroundExcessive inflammation persists despite antiretroviral treatment. Statins decrease cardiovascular (CV) disease risk by reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and inflammation. We performed an exploratory analysis to evaluate whether statin therapy decreased risk of non-AIDS-defining events and nonaccidental death.MethodsA total of 3601 subjects not on a statin from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Longitudinal Linked Randomized Trials cohort were included. Outcome was time to first clinical event (CV event, renal or hepatic disease, incident diabetes, thrombotic/embolic event, nontraumatic fracture, non-AIDS-defining malignancy, serious bacterial infection, or nonaccidental death); event categories were also analyzed separately. Inverse probability of treatment and censoring weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the causal statin effect. Differential statin effects by baseline covariates were evaluated.ResultsOver 15 135 person-years (PY) of follow-up, 484 subjects initiated statins; 616 experienced an event (crude event rate, 4.4/100 PY on a statin and 4.1/100 PY not on a statin); the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], .91-1.50). In a final weighted model, the adjusted HR (AHR) was 0.81 (95% CI, .53- 1.24). Results for other clinical events were similar, except for malignancies (AHR, 0.43 [95% CI, .19-.94]) and bacterial infections (AHR, 1.30 [95% CI, .64-2.65]). No differential statin effects by baseline covariates were detected.ConclusionsAlthough statin therapy was not associated with a reduction in time to all non-AIDS-defining event or nonaccidental death, it was associated with a statistically significant 57% reduction in non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Confirmatory studies are needed to evaluate statin-associated reduction in risk of cancer and non-AIDS-associated morbidities