Cardiovascular disease risk prediction using automated machine learning: A prospective study of 423,604 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Identifying people at risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a cornerstone of preventative cardiology. Risk prediction models currently recommended by clinical guidelines are typically based on a limited number of predictors with sub-optimal performance across all patient groups. Data-driven techniques based on machine learning (ML) might improve the performance of risk predictions by agnostically discovering novel risk predictors and learning the complex interactions between them. We tested (1) whether ML techniques based on a state-of-the-art automated ML framework (AutoPrognosis) could improve CVD risk prediction compared to traditional approaches, and (2) whether considering non-traditional variables could increase the accuracy of CVD risk predictions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data on 423,604 participants without CVD at baseline in UK Biobank, we developed a ML-based model for predicting CVD risk based on 473 available variables. Our ML-based model was derived using AutoPrognosis, an algorithmic tool that automatically selects and tunes ensembles of ML modeling pipelines (comprising data imputation, feature processing, classification and calibration algorithms). We compared our model with a well-established risk prediction algorithm based on conventional CVD risk factors (Framingham score), a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model based on familiar risk factors (i.e, age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, reception of treatments for hypertension and body mass index), and a Cox PH model based on all of the 473 available variables. Predictive performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Overall, our AutoPrognosis model improved risk prediction (AUC-ROC: 0.774, 95% CI: 0.768-0.780) compared to Framingham score (AUC-ROC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.720-0.728, p < 0.001), Cox PH model with conventional risk factors (AUC-ROC: 0.734, 95% CI: 0.729-0.739, p < 0.001), and Cox PH model with all UK Biobank variables (AUC-ROC: 0.758, 95% CI: 0.753-0.763, p < 0.001). Out of 4,801 CVD cases recorded within 5 years of baseline, AutoPrognosis was able to correctly predict 368 more cases compared to the Framingham score. Our AutoPrognosis model included predictors that are not usually considered in existing risk prediction models, such as the individuals' usual walking pace and their self-reported overall health rating. Furthermore, our model improved risk prediction in potentially relevant sub-populations, such as in individuals with history of diabetes. We also highlight the relative benefits accrued from including more information into a predictive model (information gain) as compared to the benefits of using more complex models (modeling gain). CONCLUSIONS: Our AutoPrognosis model improves the accuracy of CVD risk prediction in the UK Biobank population. This approach performs well in traditionally poorly served patient subgroups. Additionally, AutoPrognosis uncovered novel predictors for CVD disease that may now be tested in prospective studies. We found that the "information gain" achieved by considering more risk factors in the predictive model was significantly higher than the "modeling gain" achieved by adopting complex predictive models

Morphological and moisture availability controls of the leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio: Analysis of measurements on Australian trees

© 2015 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio (LA:SA) is a key plant trait that links photosynthesis to transpiration. The pipe model theory states that the sapwood cross-sectional area of a stem or branch at any point should scale isometrically with the area of leaves distal to that point. Optimization theory further suggests that LA:SA should decrease toward drier climates. Although acclimation of LA:SA to climate has been reported within species, much less is known about the scaling of this trait with climate among species. We compiled LA:SA measurements from 184 species of Australian evergreen angiosperm trees. The pipe model was broadly confirmed, based on measurements on branches and trunks of trees from one to 27 years old. Despite considerable scatter in LA:SA among species, quantile regression showed strong (0.2 < R1 < 0.65) positive relationships between two climatic moisture indices and the lowermost (5%) and uppermost (5-15%) quantiles of log LA:SA, suggesting that moisture availability constrains the envelope of minimum and maximum values of LA:SA typical for any given climate. Interspecific differences in plant hydraulic conductivity are probably responsible for the large scatter of values in the mid-quantile range and may be an important determinant of tree morphology. We compiled LA:SA measurements from 183 species of Australian evergreen angiosperm trees. The pipe model was broadly confirmed. LA:SA quantile regression showed positive relationships between two climatic moisture indices and the lowermost and uppermost quantiles

A remark on an overdetermined problem in Riemannian Geometry

Let $(M,g)$ be a Riemannian manifold with a distinguished point $O$ and assume that the geodesic distance $d$ from $O$ is an isoparametric function. Let $\Omega\subset M$ be a bounded domain, with $O \in \Omega$, and consider the problem $\Delta_p u = -1$ in $\Omega$ with $u=0$ on $\partial \Omega$, where $\Delta_p$ is the $p$-Laplacian of $g$. We prove that if the normal derivative $\partial_{\nu}u$ of $u$ along the boundary of $\Omega$ is a function of $d$ satisfying suitable conditions, then $\Omega$ must be a geodesic ball. In particular, our result applies to open balls of $\mathbb{R}^n$ equipped with a rotationally symmetric metric of the form $g=dt^2+\rho^2(t)\,g_S$, where $g_S$ is the standard metric of the sphere.Comment: 8 pages. This paper has been written for possible publication in a special volume dedicated to the conference "Geometric Properties for Parabolic and Elliptic PDE's. 4th Italian-Japanese Workshop", organized in Palinuro in May 201

Dissociable effects of 5-HT2C receptor antagonism and genetic inactivation on perseverance and learned non-reward in an egocentric spatial reversal task

Cognitive flexibility can be assessed in reversal learning tests, which are sensitive to modulation of 5-HT2C receptor (5-HT2CR) function. Successful performance in these tests depends on at least two dissociable cognitive mechanisms which may separately dissipate associations of previous positive and negative valence. The first is opposed by perseverance and the second by learned non-reward. The current experiments explored the effect of reducing function of the 5-HT2CR on the cognitive mechanisms underlying egocentric reversal learning in the mouse. Experiment 1 used the 5-HT2CR antagonist SB242084 (0.5 mg/kg) in a between-groups serial design and Experiment 2 used 5-HT2CR KO mice in a repeated measures design. Animals initially learned to discriminate between two egocentric turning directions, only one of which was food rewarded (denoted CS+, CS−), in a T- or Y-maze configuration. This was followed by three conditions; (1) Full reversal, where contingencies reversed; (2) Perseverance, where the previous CS+ became CS− and the previous CS− was replaced by a novel CS+; (3) Learned non-reward, where the previous CS− became CS+ and the previous CS+ was replaced by a novel CS-. SB242084 reduced perseverance, observed as a decrease in trials and incorrect responses to criterion, but increased learned non-reward, observed as an increase in trials to criterion. In contrast, 5-HT2CR KO mice showed increased perseverance. 5-HT2CR KO mice also showed retarded egocentric discrimination learning. Neither manipulation of 5-HT2CR function affected performance in the full reversal test. These results are unlikely to be accounted for by increased novelty attraction, as SB242084 failed to affect performance in an unrewarded novelty task. In conclusion, acute 5-HT2CR antagonism and constitutive loss of the 5-HT2CR have opposing effects on perseverance in egocentric reversal learning in mice. It is likely that this difference reflects the broader impact of 5HT2CR loss on the development and maintenance of cognitive function

Enteral Nutrition in Adult Crohn’s Disease: Toward a Paradigm Shift

Medical and surgical treatments for Crohn’s disease are associated with toxic effects. Medical therapy aims for mucosal healing and is achievable with biologics, immunosuppressive therapy, and specialised enteral nutrition, but not with corticosteroids. Sustained remission remains a therapeutic challenge. Enteral nutrition, containing macro- and micro-nutrients, is nutritionally complete, and is provided in powder or liquid form. Enteral nutrition is a low-risk and minimally invasive therapy. It is well-established and recommended as first line induction therapy in paediatric Crohn’s disease with remission rates of up to 80%. Other than in Japan, enteral nutrition is not routinely used in the adult population among Western countries, mainly due to unpalatable formulations which lead to poor compliance. This study aims to offer a comprehensive review of available enteral nutrition formulations and the literature supporting the use and mechanisms of action of enteral nutrition in adult Crohn’s disease patients, in order to support clinicians in real world decision-making when offering/accepting treatment. The mechanisms of actions of enteral feed, including their impact on the gut microbiome, were explored. Barriers to the use of enteral nutrition, such as compliance and the route of administration, were considered. All available enteral preparations have been comprehensively described as a practical guide for clinical use. Likewise, guidelines are reported and discussed

BLITZ-HF: a nationwide initiative to evaluate and improve adherence to acute and chronic heart failure guidelines

Aims: To assess adherence to guideline recommendations among a large network of Italian cardiology sites in the management of acute and chronic heart failure (HF) and to evaluate if an ad-hoc educational intervention can improve their performance on several pharmacological and non-pharmacological indicators. Methods and results: BLITZ-HF was a cross-sectional study based on a web-based recording system with pop-up reminders on guideline recommendations used during two 3-month enrolment periods carried out 3 months apart (Phase 1 and 3), interspersed by face-to-face macro-regional benchmark analyses and educational meetings (Phase 2). Overall, 7218 patients with acute and chronic HF were enrolled at 106 cardiology sites. During the enrolment phases, 3920 and 3298 patients were included, respectively, 84% with chronic HF and 16% with acute HF in Phase 1, and 74% with chronic HF and 26% with acute HF in Phase 3. At baseline, adherence to guideline recommendations was already overall high for most indicators. Among acute HF patients, an improvement was obtained in three out of eight indicators, with a significant rise in echocardiographic evaluation. Among chronic HF patients with HF and preserved or mid-range ejection fraction, performance increased in two out of three indicators: creatinine and echocardiographic evaluations. An overall performance improvement was observed in six out of nine indicators in ambulatory HF with reduced ejection fraction patients with a significant increase in angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor prescription rates. Conclusions: Within a context of an already elevated level of adherence to HF guideline recommendations, a structured multifaceted educational intervention could be useful to improve performance on specific indicators. Extending this approach to other non-cardiology healthcare professionals, who usually manage patients with HF, should be considered

Quantum feedback control of a superconducting qubit: Persistent Rabi oscillations

The act of measurement bridges the quantum and classical worlds by projecting a superposition of possible states into a single, albeit probabilistic, outcome. The time-scale of this "instantaneous" process can be stretched using weak measurements so that it takes the form of a gradual random walk towards a final state. Remarkably, the interim measurement record is sufficient to continuously track and steer the quantum state using feedback. We monitor the dynamics of a resonantly driven quantum two-level system -- a superconducting quantum bit --using a near-noiseless parametric amplifier. The high-fidelity measurement output is used to actively stabilize the phase of Rabi oscillations, enabling them to persist indefinitely. This new functionality shows promise for fighting decoherence and defines a path for continuous quantum error correction.Comment: Manuscript: 5 Pages and 3 figures ; Supplementary Information: 9 pages and 3 figure

Hyperthyroidism as a reversible cause of right ventricular overload and congestive heart failure

We describe a case of severe congestive heart failure and right ventricular overload associated with overt hyperthyroidism, completely reversed with antithyroid therapy in a few week. It represents a very unusual presentation of overt hyperthyroidism because of the severity of right heart failure. The impressive right ventricular volume overload made mandatory to perform transesophageal echo and angio-TC examination to exclude the coexistence of ASD or anomalous pulmonary venous return. Only a few cases of reversible right heart failure, with or without pulmonary hypertension, have been reported worldwide. In our case the most striking feature has been the normalization of the cardiovascular findings after six weeks of tiamazole therapy

A viscoelastic deadly fluid in carnivorous pitcher plants

Background : The carnivorous plants of the genus Nepenthes, widely distributed in the Asian tropics, rely mostly on nutrients derived from arthropods trapped in their pitcher-shaped leaves and digested by their enzymatic fluid. The genus exhibits a great diversity of prey and pitcher forms and its mechanism of trapping has long intrigued scientists. The slippery inner surfaces of the pitchers, which can be waxy or highly wettable, have so far been considered as the key trapping devices. However, the occurrence of species lacking such epidermal specializations but still effective at trapping insects suggests the possible implication of other mechanisms. Methodology/Principal Findings : Using a combination of insect bioassays, high-speed video and rheological measurements, we show that the digestive fluid of Nepenthes rafflesiana is highly viscoelastic and that this physical property is crucial for the retention of insects in its traps. Trapping efficiency is shown to remain strong even when the fluid is highly diluted by water, as long as the elastic relaxation time of the fluid is higher than the typical time scale of insect movements. Conclusions/Significance : This finding challenges the common classification of Nepenthes pitchers as simple passive traps and is of great adaptive significance for these tropical plants, which are often submitted to high rainfalls and variations in fluid concentration. The viscoelastic trap constitutes a cryptic but potentially widespread adaptation of Nepenthes species and could be a homologous trait shared through common ancestry with the sundew (Drosera) flypaper plants. Such large production of a highly viscoelastic biopolymer fluid in permanent pools is nevertheless unique in the plant kingdom and suggests novel applications for pest control