Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for Spatial Correlations of Neutrinos with Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays

For several decades, the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) has been an unsolved question of high-energy astrophysics. One approach for solving this puzzle is to correlate UHECRs with high-energy neutrinos, since neutrinos are a direct probe of hadronic interactions of cosmic rays and are not deflected by magnetic fields. In this paper, we present three different approaches for correlating the arrival directions of neutrinos with the arrival directions of UHECRs. The neutrino data are provided by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory and ANTARES, while the UHECR data with energies above ∼50 EeV are provided by the Pierre Auger Observatory and the Telescope Array. All experiments provide increased statistics and improved reconstructions with respect to our previous results reported in 2015. The first analysis uses a high-statistics neutrino sample optimized for point-source searches to search for excesses of neutrino clustering in the vicinity of UHECR directions. The second analysis searches for an excess of UHECRs in the direction of the highest-energy neutrinos. The third analysis searches for an excess of pairs of UHECRs and highest-energy neutrinos on different angular scales. None of the analyses have found a significant excess, and previously reported overfluctuations are reduced in significance. Based on these results, we further constrain the neutrino flux spatially correlated with UHECRs

A Low-Frequency Inactivating Akt2 Variant Enriched in the Finnish Population is Associated With Fasting Insulin Levels and Type 2 Diabetes Risk

To identify novel coding association signals and facilitate characterization of mechanisms influencing glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes risk, we analyzed 109,215 variants derived from exome array genotyping together with an additional 390,225 variants from exome sequence in up to 39,339 normoglycemic individuals from five ancestry groups. We identified a novel association between the coding variant (p.Pro50Thr) in AKT2 and fasting insulin, a gene in which rare fully penetrant mutations are causal for monogenic glycemic disorders. The low-frequency allele is associated with a 12% increase in fasting plasma insulin (FI) levels. This variant is present at 1.1% frequency in Finns but virtually absent in individuals from other ancestries. Carriers of the FI-increasing allele had increased 2-hour insulin values, decreased insulin sensitivity, and increased risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio=1.05). In cellular studies, the AKT2-Thr50 protein exhibited a partial loss of function. We extend the allelic spectrum for coding variants in AKT2 associated with disorders of glucose homeostasis and demonstrate bidirectional effects of variants within the pleckstrin homology domain of AKT2.Academy of Finland (129293, 128315, 129330, 131593, 139635, 139635, 121584, 126925, 124282, 129378, 258753); Action on Hearing Loss (G51); Ahokas Foundation; American Diabetes Association (#7-12-MN-02); Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency; Augustinus foundation; Becket foundation; Benzon Foundation; Biomedical Research Council; British Heart Foundation (SP/04/002); Canada Foundation for Innovation; Commission of the European Communities, Directorate C-Public Health (2004310); Copenhagen County; Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment; Danish Council for Independent Research; Danish Heart Foundation (07-10-R61-A1754-B838-22392F); Danish Medical Research Council; Danish Pharmaceutical Association; Emil Aaltonen Foundation; European Research Council Advanced Research Grant; European Union FP7 (EpiMigrant, 279143; FP7/2007-2013; 259749); Finland's Slottery Machine Association; Finnish Cultural Foundation; Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation; Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Medical Society; Finnish National Public Health Institute; Finska Läkaresällskapet; Folkhälsan Research Foundation; Foundation for Life and Health in Finland; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD) ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; Health Care Centers in Vasa, Närpes and Korsholm; Health Insurance Foundation (2012B233) ; Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Foundation; Hospital districts of Pirkanmaa, Southern Ostrobothnia, North Ostrobothnia, Central Finland, and Northern Savo; Ib Henriksen foundation; Juho Vainio Foundation; Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (4845–301); Korea National Institute of Health (2012-N73002-00); Li Ka Shing Foundation; Liv och Hälsa; Lundbeck Foundation; Marie-Curie Fellowship (PIEF-GA-2012-329156); Medical Research Council (G0601261, G0900747-91070, G0601966, G0700931); Ministry of Education in Finland; Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in Finland; MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health;Municipal Heath Care Center and Hospital in Jakobstad; Närpes Health Care Foundation; National Institute for Health Research (RP-PG-0407-10371); National Institutes of Health (U01 DK085526, U01 DK085501, U01 DK085524, U01 DK085545, U01 DK085584, U01 DK088389, RC2-DK088389, DK085545, DK098032, HHSN268201300046C, HHSN268201300047C, HHSN268201300048C, HHSN268201300049C, HHSN, R01MH107666 and K12CA139160268201300050C, U01 DK062370, R01 DK066358, U01DK085501, R01HL102830, R01DK073541, PO1AG027734, R01AG046949, 1R01AG042188, P30AG038072, R01 MH101820, R01MH090937, P30DK020595, R01 DK078616, NIDDK K24 DK080140, 1RC2DK088389, T32GM007753); National Medical Research Council; National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2012R1A2A1A03006155); Nordic Center of Excellence in Disease Genetics; Novo Nordisk; Ollqvist Foundation; OrionFarmos Research Foundation; Paavo Nurmi Foundation; Perklén Foundation; Samfundet Folkhälsan; Signe and Ane Gyllenberg Foundation; Sigrid Juselius Foundation; Social Insurance Institution of Finland; South East Norway Health Authority (2011060); Swedish Cultural Foundation in Finland; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation; Swedish Research Council; Swedish Research Council (Linné and Strategic Research Grant); The American Federation for Aging Research; The Einstein Glenn Center; The European Commission (HEALTH-F4-2007-201413); The Finnish Diabetes Association; The Folkhälsan Research Foundation; The Påhlssons Foundation; The provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick; The Sigrid Juselius Foundation; The Skåne Regional Health Authority; The Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation; Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bang’s Foundation; Turku University Foundation; Uppsala University; Wellcome Trust (064890, 083948, 085475, 086596, 090367, 090532, 092447, 095101/Z/10/Z, 200837/Z/16/Z, 095552, 098017, 098381, 098051, 084723, 072960/2/ 03/2, 086113/Z/08/Z, WT098017, WT064890, WT090532, WT098017, 098051, WT086596/Z/08/A and 086596/Z/08/Z). Detailed acknowledgment of funding sources is provided in the Additional Acknowledgements section of the Supplementary Materials

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week. INTERPRETATION: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping the Pareto Optimal Design Space for a Functionally Deimmunized Biotherapeutic Candidate

The immunogenicity of biotherapeutics can bottleneck development pipelines and poses a barrier to widespread clinical application. As a result, there is a growing need for improved deimmunization technologies. We have recently described algorithms that simultaneously optimize proteins for both reduced T cell epitope content and high-level function. In silico analysis of this dual objective design space reveals that there is no single global optimum with respect to protein deimmunization. Instead, mutagenic epitope deletion yields a spectrum of designs that exhibit tradeoffs between immunogenic potential and molecular function. The leading edge of this design space is the Pareto frontier, i.e. the undominated variants for which no other single design exhibits better performance in both criteria. Here, the Pareto frontier of a therapeutic enzyme has been designed, constructed, and evaluated experimentally. Various measures of protein performance were found to map a functional sequence space that correlated well with computational predictions. These results represent the first systematic and rigorous assessment of the functional penalty that must be paid for pursuing progressively more deimmunized biotherapeutic candidates. Given this capacity to rapidly assess and design for tradeoffs between protein immunogenicity and functionality, these algorithms may prove useful in augmenting, accelerating, and de-risking experimental deimmunization efforts