Epidemic variability in complex networks

We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of initial conditions on the epidemic's dynamics and its variability. The results display a time regime during which the prevalence exhibits a large sensitivity to noise. We also investigate the dependence of the infection time on nodes' degree and distance to the seed. In particular, we show that the infection time of hubs have large fluctuations which limit their reliability as early-detection stations. Finally, we discuss the effect of the multiplicity of shortest paths between two nodes on the infection time. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the existence of even longer paths reduces the average infection time. These different results could be of use for the design of time-dependent containment strategies

A generic C1C^1 map has no absolutely continuous invariant probability measure

Let $M$ be a smooth compact manifold (maybe with boundary, maybe disconnected) of any dimension $d \ge 1$. We consider the set of $C^1$ maps $f:M\to M$ which have no absolutely continuous (with respect to Lebesgue) invariant probability measure. We show that this is a residual (dense $G_\delta) set in the$C^1$ topology. In the course of the proof, we need a generalization of the usual Rokhlin tower lemma to non-invariant measures. That result may be of independent interest.Comment: 12 page

A Network-Based Meta-Population Approach to Model Rift Valley Fever Epidemics

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human health. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations.Comment: published on Journal of Theoretical biolog

Time- and momentum-resolved photoemission studies using time-of-flight momentum microscopy at a free-electron laser

Time-resolved photoemission with ultrafast pump and probe pulses is an emerging technique with wide application potential. Real-time recording of nonequilibrium electronic processes, transient states in chemical reactions, or the interplay of electronic and structural dynamics offers fascinating opportunities for future research. Combining valence-band and core-level spectroscopy with photoelectron diffraction for electronic, chemical, and structural analyses requires few 10 fs soft X-ray pulses with some 10 meV spectral resolution, which are currently available at high repetition rate free-electron lasers. We have constructed and optimized a versatile setup commissioned at FLASH/PG2 that combines free-electron laser capabilities together with a multidimensional recording scheme for photoemission studies. We use a full-field imaging momentum microscope with time-of-flight energy recording as the detector for mapping of 3D band structures in (kx, ky, E) parameter space with unprecedented efficiency. Our instrument can image full surface Brillouin zones with up to 7 Å−1 diameter in a binding-energy range of several eV, resolving about 2.5 × 105 data voxels simultaneously. Using the ultrafast excited state dynamics in the van der Waals semiconductor WSe2 measured at photon energies of 36.5 eV and 109.5 eV, we demonstrate an experimental energy resolution of 130 meV, a momentum resolution of 0.06 Å−1, and a system response function of 150 fs

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Pedestrians moving in dark: Balancing measures and playing games on lattices

We present two conceptually new modeling approaches aimed at describing the motion of pedestrians in obscured corridors: * a Becker-D\"{o}ring-type dynamics * a probabilistic cellular automaton model. In both models the group formation is affected by a threshold. The pedestrians are supposed to have very limited knowledge about their current position and their neighborhood; they can form groups up to a certain size and they can leave them. Their main goal is to find the exit of the corridor. Although being of mathematically different character, the discussion of both models shows that it seems to be a disadvantage for the individual to adhere to larger groups. We illustrate this effect numerically by solving both model systems. Finally we list some of our main open questions and conjectures

Esperanto for histones : CENP-A, not CenH3, is the centromeric histone H3 variant

The first centromeric protein identified in any species was CENP-A, a divergent member of the histone H3 family that was recognised by autoantibodies from patients with scleroderma-spectrum disease. It has recently been suggested to rename this protein CenH3. Here, we argue that the original name should be maintained both because it is the basis of a long established nomenclature for centromere proteins and because it avoids confusion due to the presence of canonical histone H3 at centromeres

Dynamics of Simple Balancing Models with State Dependent Switching Control

Time-delayed control in a balancing problem may be a nonsmooth function for a variety of reasons. In this paper we study a simple model of the control of an inverted pendulum by either a connected movable cart or an applied torque for which the control is turned off when the pendulum is located within certain regions of phase space. Without applying a small angle approximation for deviations about the vertical position, we see structurally stable periodic orbits which may be attracting or repelling. Due to the nonsmooth nature of the control, these periodic orbits are born in various discontinuity-induced bifurcations. Also we show that a coincidence of switching events can produce complicated periodic and aperiodic solutions.Comment: 36 pages, 12 figure