Uncertainties of predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Linear carbon cycle models, tuned to reproduce the CO2 increase observed at Mauna Loa, independently of their individual assumptions, predict almost identical CO2 concentration trends for fossil energy scenarios assuming a slightly increasing production in the next few decades. The basic information for such prognoses therefore is the airborne fraction observed over the last 20 years. Uncertainties in this quantity are due to possible errors in the estimate of fossil fuel consumption and the corresponding CO2 emission, possible natural fluctuations in the baseline CO2 level, and uncertainties regarding the biospheric CO2 input and uptake as a result of deforestation and reforestation and land management. Depending on different assumptions the effective airborne fraction, defined as the ratio of CO2 increase due to fossil fuel CO2 alone to the integrated CO2 production, might be as low as 0.38 or as high as 0.72, compared to the apparent airborne fraction of 0.55. The effective airborne fraction derived from carbon cycle models, considering only the CO2 uptake by the ocean, lies in the range 0.60–0.70. A value as low as 0.40 seems therefore highly improbable. A high biospheric anthropogenic CO2 input therefore must have been accompanied by a high CO2 fertilization effect. Model considerations, however, are not in contradiction with a high biospheric input with the maximum production before 1958, which also would imply low preindustrial CO2 concentrations in the range 270–280 ppm as reported recently

Towards a representative reference for MRI-based human axon radius assessment using light microscopy

Non-invasive assessment of axon radii via MRI bears great potential for clinical and neuroscience research as it is a main determinant of the neuronal conduction velocity. However, there is a lack of representative histological reference data at the scale of the cross-section of MRI voxels for validating the MRI-visible, effective radius (reff). Because the current gold standard stems from neuroanatomical studies designed to estimate the bulk-determined arithmetic mean radius (rarith) on small ensembles of axons, it is unsuited to estimate the tail-weighted reff. We propose CNN-based segmentation on high-resolution, large-scale light microscopy (lsLM) data to generate a representative reference for reff. In a human corpus callosum, we assessed estimation accuracy and bias of rarith and reff. Furthermore, we investigated whether mapping anatomy-related variation of rarith and reff is confounded by low-frequency variation of the image intensity, e.g., due to staining heterogeneity. Finally, we analyzed the error due to outstandingly large axons in reff. Compared to rarith, reff was estimated with higher accuracy (maximum normalized-root-mean-square-error of reff: 8.5 %; rarith: 19.5 %) and lower bias (maximum absolute normalized-mean-bias-error of reff: 4.8 %; rarith: 13.4 %). While rarith was confounded by variation of the image intensity, variation of reff seemed anatomy-related. The largest axons contributed between 0.8 % and 2.9 % to reff. In conclusion, the proposed method is a step towards representatively estimating reff at MRI voxel resolution. Further investigations are required to assess generalization to other brains and brain areas with different axon radii distributions

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics

The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that many authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier (1824), Tyndall (1861), and Arrhenius (1896), and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system. According to the second law of thermodynamics such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature it is taken for granted that such mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation. In this paper the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified. By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 degrees Celsius is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified.Comment: 115 pages, 32 figures, 13 tables (some typos corrected

The three main monotheistic religions and gm food technology: an overview of perspectives

Abstract Background Public acceptance of genetically modified crops is partly rooted in religious views. However, the views of different religions and their potential influence on consumers' decisions have not been systematically examined and summarized in a brief overview. We review the positions of the Judaism, Islam and Christianity – the three major monotheistic religions to which more than 55% of humanity adheres to – on the controversies aroused by GM technology. Discussion The article establishes that there is no overarching consensus within the three religions. Overall, however, it appears that mainstream theology in all three religions increasingly tends towards acceptance of GM technology per se, on performing GM research, and on consumption of GM foods. These more liberal approaches, however, are predicated on there being rigorous scientific, ethical and regulatory scrutiny of research and development of such products, and that these products are properly labeled. Summary We conclude that there are several other interests competing with the influence exerted on consumers by religion. These include the media, environmental activists, scientists and the food industry, all of which function as sources of information and shapers of perception for consumers

Global Peak in Atmospheric Radiocarbon Provides a Potential Definition for the Onset of the Anthropocene Epoch in 1965

Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the ‘Anthropocene’. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C, demonstrating the ‘bomb peak’ in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II ‘Great Acceleration’ in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or ‘golden spike’, marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) – levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases – as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result – which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 – leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data