Reliability analysis of dynamic systems by translating temporal fault trees into Bayesian networks

Classical combinatorial fault trees can be used to assess combinations of failures but are unable to capture sequences of faults, which are important in complex dynamic systems. A number of proposed techniques extend fault tree analysis for dynamic systems. One of such technique, Pandora, introduces temporal gates to capture the sequencing of events and allows qualitative analysis of temporal fault trees. Pandora can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. It is, therefore, useful to explore the possible avenues for quantitative analysis of Pandora temporal fault trees, and we identify Bayesian Networks as a possible framework for such analysis. We describe how Pandora fault trees can be translated to Bayesian Networks for dynamic dependability analysis and demonstrate the process on a simplified fuel system model. The conversion facilitates predictive reliability analysis of Pandora fault trees, but also opens the way for post-hoc diagnostic analysis of failures

Foraging behavior and Doppler shift compensation in echolocating hipposiderid bats, I-Iipposideros bicolor and I-Iipposideros speoris

1. Two hipposiderid bats,H. bicolor andH. speoris, were observed in their natural foraging areas in Madurai (South India). Both species hunt close together near the foliage of trees and bushes but they differ in fine structure of preferred hunting space:H. bicolor hunts within the foliage, especially whenH. speoris is active at the same time, whereasH. speoris never flies in dense vegetation but rather in the more open area (Fig. 1, Table 1). 2. Both species emit CF/FM-sounds containing only one harmonic component in almost all echolocation situations. The CF-parts of CF/FM-sounds are species specific within a band of 127–138 kHz forH. speoris and 147–159 kHz forH. bicolor (Tables 2 and 3). 3. H. speoris additionally uses a complex harmonic sound during obstacle avoidance and during laboratory tests for Doppler shift compensation.H. bicolor consistently emits CF/FM-sounds in these same situations (Fig. 2). 4. Both hipposiderid bats respond to Doppler shifts in the returning echoes by lowering the frequency of the emitted sounds (Fig. 3). However, Doppler compensations are incomplete as the emitted frequencies are decreased by only 55% and 56% (mean values) of the full frequency shifts byH. speoris andH, bicolor, respectively. 5. The differences in Doppler shift compensation, echolocating and hunting behavior suggest thatH. speoris is less specialized on echolocation with CF/FM-sounds thanH. bicolor

Echo Delay and Overlap with Emitted Orientation Sounds and Doppler-shift Compensation in the Bat, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum

The compensation of Doppler-shifts by the bat, Rhinolophusferrumequinum, functions only when certain temporal relations between the echo and the emitted orientation sound are given. Three echo configurations were used: a) Original orientation sounds were electronically Doppler-shifted and played back either cut at the beginning (variable delay) or at the end (variable duration) of the echo. b) Artificial constant frequency echoes with variable delay or duration were clamped to the frequency of the emitted orientation sound at different Doppler-shifts. c) The echoes were only partially Doppler-shifted and the Doppler-shifted component began after variable delays or had variable durations. With increasing delay or decreasing duration of the Doppler-shifted echo the compensation amplitude for a sinusoidally modulated + 3 kHz Dopplershift (modulation rate 0.08 Hz) decreases for all stimulus configurations (Figs. 1, 2, 3). The range of the Doppler-shift compensation system is therefore limited by the delay due to acoustic travel time to about 4 m distance between bat and target. In this range the overlap duration of the echo with the emitted orientation sound is always sufficiently long, when compared with data on the orientation pulse length during target approach from Schnitzler (1968) (Fig. 5)

Hennessy-Milner Logic with Greatest Fixed Points as a Complete Behavioural Specification Theory

There are two fundamentally different approaches to specifying and verifying properties of systems. The logical approach makes use of specifications given as formulae of temporal or modal logics and relies on efficient model checking algorithms; the behavioural approach exploits various equivalence or refinement checking methods, provided the specifications are given in the same formalism as implementations. In this paper we provide translations between the logical formalism of Hennessy-Milner logic with greatest fixed points and the behavioural formalism of disjunctive modal transition systems. We also introduce a new operation of quotient for the above equivalent formalisms, which is adjoint to structural composition and allows synthesis of missing specifications from partial implementations. This is a substantial generalisation of the quotient for deterministic modal transition systems defined in earlier papers

Quantification of temporal fault trees based on fuzzy set theory

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014. Fault tree analysis (FTA) has been modified in different ways to make it capable of performing quantitative and qualitative safety analysis with temporal gates, thereby overcoming its limitation in capturing sequential failure behaviour. However, for many systems, it is often very difficult to have exact failure rates of components due to increased complexity of systems, scarcity of necessary statistical data etc. To overcome this problem, this paper presents a methodology based on fuzzy set theory to quantify temporal fault trees. This makes the imprecision in available failure data more explicit and helps to obtain a range of most probable values for the top event probability

Reconstructing Deconstruction: High-Velocity Cloud Distance Through Disruption Morphology

We present Arecibo L-band Feed Array 21-cm observations of a sub-complex of HVCs at the tip of the Anti-Center Complex. These observations show morphological details that point to interaction with the ambient halo medium and differential drag within the cloud sub-complex. We develop a new technique for measuring cloud distances, which relies upon these observed morphological and kinematic characteristics, and show that it is consistent with H-alpha distances. These results are consistent with distances to HVCs and halo densities derived from models in which HVCs are formed from cooling halo gas.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabe, Accepted to Ap

Political hashtag publics and counter-visuality: a case study of #fertilityday in Italy

In 2016 the Italian health ministry launched the ‘Fertility Day’ campaign, aimed at tackling Italy’s low birth rate. Under the accusation of delivering sexist and racist messages, the campaign became a trending topic on Twitter, and a protest was launched to be held during Fertility Day. By applying a combination of digital methods and visual content analysis to the #fertilityday Twitter stream, this paper contributes to existing research on the deliberative strength of political hashtag publics, with a particular focus on their power structures, communication patterns and visual content use. Findings on gatekeeping dynamics downsize optimistic views on the democratising potential of Twitter’s socio-technical infrastructure as they point to the emergence of online satirical media and ‘tweetstars’ – along with mainstream news media– as main producers of spreadable content, with ordinary users only surfacing when traditional media elites and new satirical actors lack or lose interest in the debate. Results confirm that political hashtag publics follow acute event communication patterns, with users highly engaged in retweeting and referencing external material and visual content playing a key role in these gatewatching practices. The transient counter-visuality – or critical stance – of tweets with user-manipulated images, however, also suggests that the deliberative potential of these publics is not easily sustainable over time

Constraining a hybrid volatility basis-set model for aging of wood-burning emissions using smog chamber experiments : A box-model study based on the VBS scheme of the CAMx model (v5.40)

In this study, novel wood combustion aging experiments performed at different temperatures (263 and 288 K) in a ∼ 7 m³ smog chamber were modelled using a hybrid volatility basis set (VBS) box model, representing the emission partitioning and their oxidation against OH. We combine aerosol–chemistry box-model simulations with unprecedented measurements of non-traditional volatile organic compounds (NTVOCs) from a high-resolution proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) and with organic aerosol measurements from an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Due to this, we are able to observationally constrain the amounts of different NTVOC aerosol precursors (in the model) relative to low volatility and semi-volatile primary organic material (OM$_{sv}$), which is partitioned based on current published volatility distribution data. By comparing the NTVOC ∕ OM$_{sv}$ ratios at different temperatures, we determine the enthalpies of vaporization of primary biomass-burning organic aerosols. Further, the developed model allows for evaluating the evolution of oxidation products of the semi-volatile and volatile precursors with aging. More than 30 000 box-model simulations were performed to retrieve the combination of parameters that best fit the observed organic aerosol mass and O : C ratios. The parameters investigated include the NTVOC reaction rates and yields as well as enthalpies of vaporization and the O : C of secondary organic aerosol surrogates. Our results suggest an average ratio of NTVOCs to the sum of non-volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds of ∼ 4.75. The mass yields of these compounds determined for a wide range of atmospherically relevant temperatures and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations were predicted to vary between 8 and 30 % after 5 h of continuous aging. Based on the reaction scheme used, reaction rates of the NTVOC mixture range from 3.0 × 10$^{-11}$ to 4. 0 × 10$^{-11}$ cm³ molec$^{-1}$ s$^{-1}$. The average enthalpy of vaporization of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) surrogates was determined to be between 55 000 and 35 000 J mol$^{-1}$, which implies a yield increase of 0.03-0.06 % K$^{-1}$ with decreasing temperature. The improved VBS scheme is suitable for implementation into chemical transport models to predict the burden and oxidation state of primary and secondary biomass-burning aerosols

Banks' risk assessment of Swedish SMEs

Building on the literatures on asymmetric information and risk taking, this paper applies conjoint experiments to investigate lending officers' probabilities of supporting credit to established or existing SMEs. Using a sample of 114 Swedish lending officers, we test hypotheses concerning how information on the borrower's ability to repay the loan; alignment of risk preferences; and risk sharing affect their willingness to grant credit. Results suggest that features that reduce the risk to the bank and shift the risk to the borrower have the largest impact. The paper highlights the interaction between factors that influence the credit decision. Implications for SMEs, banks and research are discussed

Class and rank of differential modules

A differential module is a module equipped with a square-zero endomorphism. This structure underpins complexes of modules over rings, as well as differential graded modules over graded rings. We establish lower bounds on the class--a substitute for the length of a free complex--and on the rank of a differential module in terms of invariants of its homology. These results specialize to basic theorems in commutative algebra and algebraic topology. One instance is a common generalization of the equicharacteristic case of the New Intersection Theorem of Hochster, Peskine, P. Roberts, and Szpiro, concerning complexes over noetherian commutative rings, and of a theorem of G. Carlsson on differential graded modules over graded polynomial rings.Comment: 27 pages. Minor changes; mainly stylistic. To appear in Inventiones Mathematica