EMF24 Global Scenario Modeler Presentation : Insights from the IMACLIM model

International audienc

Plant community attributes affect dry grassland orchid establishment

Several factors have been taken into account to explain the distribution of orchid species. We explored the extent to which plant community attributes affect the abundance and reproductive fitness of three orchid species (Anacamptis morio, Himantoglossum adriaticum and Ophrys sphegodes), native to dry grasslands. Structural attributes of plant community (e.g. cover and height) were assessed in ninety 4 m(2) plots scattered on three hill massifs of the Veneto Region (NE Italy). For the three target orchid species, the height of the flowering stalk, the relative ramet height and the number of flowers and fruits were recorded in 203 tagged ramets. Generalized Linear Model revealed that plant community attributes such as cover and height of the herb layer exert a negative effect on the abundance of orchid populations. Furthermore, regression models indicated that O. sphegodes and H. adriaticum reproductive fitness, determined as fruit/flower ratio, was positively affected by relative ramet height. Our results revealed that local herbaceous vegetation structure influences the cover and fruit set of target orchid species. However, there can be substantial variation in the response of different species and variation in the structural attributes of surrounding vegetation may be associated with differences in the strength of selection. In order to achieve effective results in orchid species conservation, protocols for the in situ conservation must detail the range of vegetation covers and heights at which orchid species are favoured and can produce the most effective inflorescences

Can government transfers make energy subsidy reform socially acceptable? A case study on Ecuador

Energy subsidies cost Ecuador 7% of its public budget, or two thirds of the fiscal deficit. Removing these subsidies would yield local economic and environmental benefits and help implement climate targets set in the Paris Agreement. However, adverse effects on vulnerable households can make subsidy reforms politically difficult. To inform policy design, we assess the distributional impacts of energy subsidy reform using Ecuadorian household data and an augmented input-output table. We find that subsidy removal without compensation would be regressive for diesel and LPG, progressive for gasoline, and approximately neutral for electricity. We then analyze how freed up public revenues could fund in-kind and in-cash compensation schemes to mitigate income losses for poor households. Our results indicate that removing all energy subsidies and increasing the cash transfer program, Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH), by nearly US$50 per month would increase the real income of the poorest quintile by 10$ 1.3 billion for the public budget. Finally, we conduct interviews with local policy makers and experts to identify two reform options that are progressive and considered feasible: eliminating subsidies on gasoline while increasing the BDH and replacing universal LPG subsidies with targeted LPG vouchers.Industrial Ecolog

The temporal response to drought in a Mediterranean evergreen tree: comparing a regional precipitation gradient and a throughfall exclusion experiment

Like many midlatitude ecosystems, Mediterranean forests will suffer longer and more intense droughts with the ongoing climate change. The responses to drought in long-lived trees differ depending on the time scale considered, and short-term responses are currently better understood than longer term acclimation. We assessed the temporal changes in trees facing a chronic reduction in water availability by comparing leaf-scale physiological traits, branch-scale hydraulic traits, and stand-scale biomass partitioning in the evergreen Quercus ilex across a regional precipitation gradient (long-term changes) and in a partial throughfall exclusion experiment (TEE, medium term changes). At the leaf scale, gas exchange, mass per unit area and nitrogen concentration showed homeostatic responses to drought as they did not change among the sites of the precipitation gradient or in the experimental treatments of the TEE. A similar homeostatic response was observed for the xylem vulnerability to cavitation at the branch scale. In contrast, the ratio of leaf area over sapwood area (LA/SA) in young branches exhibited a transient response to drought because it decreased in response to the TEE the first 4 years of treatment, but did not change among the sites of the gradient. At the stand scale, leaf area index (LAI) decreased, and the ratios of stem SA to LAI and of fine root area to LAI both increased in trees subjected to throughfall exclusion and from the wettest to the driest site of the gradient. Taken together, these results suggest that acclimation to chronic drought in long-lived Q. ilex is mediated by changes in hydraulic allometry that shift progressively from low (branch) to high (stand) organizational levels, and act to maintain the leaf water potential within the range of xylem hydraulic function and leaf photosynthetic assimilation

Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement