The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic

The Arctic sea ice cover is currently retreating and will continue its retreat in a warming world. However, the loss of sea ice is neither regionally nor seasonally uniform. Here, we present the first regional and seasonal assessment of future Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP6 models under low (SSP126) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios, thus spanning the range of future change. We find that Arctic sea ice loss—at present predominantly limited to the summer season—will under SSP585 take place in all regions and all months. The summer sea ice is lost in all the shelf seas regardless of emission scenario, whereas ice-free conditions in winter before the end of this century only occur in the Barents Sea. The seasonal transition to ice-free conditions is found to spread through the Atlantic and Pacific regions, with change starting in the Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea, respectively.publishedVersio

Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover

A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework based on first principles and rooted in observations to predict the annual mean Barents Sea ice cover, which variance is carried by the winter ice (96%). By using observed ocean heat transport and sea ice area, the proposed framework appears skillful and explains 50% of the observed sea ice variance up to 2 years in advance. The qualitative prediction of increase versus decrease in ice cover is correct 88% of the time. Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. The framework and skill are supported by a 60 year simulation from a regional ice-ocean model. We particularly predict that the winter sea ice cover for 2016 will be slightly less than 2015

Impact of a peer-counseling intervention on breastfeeding practices in different socioeconomic strata: results from the equity analysis of the PROMISE-EBF trial in Uganda

Background: Undernutrition is highly prevalent among infants in Uganda. Optimal infant feeding practices may improve nutritional status, health, and survival among children. Objective: Our study evaluates the socioeconomic distribution of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and growth outcomes among infants included in a trial, which promoted EBF by peer counselors in Uganda. Design: Twenty-four clusters comprising one to two communities in Uganda were randomized into intervention and control arms, including 765 mother-infant pairs (PROMISE-EBF trial, 200608, ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT00397150). Intervention clusters received the promotion of EBF by peer counselors in addition to standard care. Breastfeeding and growth outcomes were compared according to wealth quintiles and intervention/control arms. Socioeconomic inequality in breastfeeding and growth outcomes were measured using the concentration index 12 and 24 weeks postpartum. We used the decomposition of the concentration index to identify factors contributing to growth inequality at 24 weeks. Results: EBF was significantly concentrated among the poorest in the intervention group at 24 weeks postpartum, concentration index 0.060. The control group showed a concentration of breastfeeding among the richest part of the population, although not statistically significant. Stunting, wasting, and underweight were similarly significantly concentrated among the poorest in the intervention group and the total population at 24 weeks, but showing non-significant concentrations for the control group. Conclusion: This study shows that EBF can be successfully promoted among the poor. In addition, socioeconomic inequality in growth outcomes starts early in infancy, but the breastfeeding intervention was not strong enough to counteract this influenc

Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard

Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.3°C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 2°C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20–45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind

Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability

Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems

Action to protect the independence and integrity of global health research

Storeng KT, Abimbola S, Balabanova D, et al. Action to protect the independence and integrity of global health research. BMJ GLOBAL HEALTH. 2019;4(3): e001746

Human factors and ergonomics design principles and guidelines : helping designers to be more creative

This is a pre-copyedited version of a contribution published in: Proceedings of the 20th Congress of the International Ergonomics Association (IEA 2018). IEA 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 824, edited by Bagnara S., Tartaglia R., Albolino S., Alexander T., Fujita Y., published by Springer, Cham. The definitive authenticated version is available online via https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96071-5_17.The knowledge and application of Human Factors/Ergonomics (HFE) principles and guidelines can help designers to develop better products and services. However, they may also include design constraints that may affect designers’ creativity. Although both HFE principles and guidelines and creativity are considered essential in the design of products and services, the link between them is little researched. In this article a discussion is presented on the influence that HFE principles and guidelines can exert on the creativity of designers. It also presents case studies of HFE principles and guidelines and discusses how they can influence designers’ creativity. In addition, a set of recommendations is suggested to help designers apply ergonomic design principles and guidelines to stimulate creativity. It is concluded that HFE principles and guidelines can assist designers in creating safer and more efficient products and services and can also broaden their creative process and therefore the originality and appropriateness of products and services

The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic

The Arctic sea ice cover is currently retreating and will continue its retreat in a warming world. However, the loss of sea ice is neither regionally nor seasonally uniform. Here, we present the first regional and seasonal assessment of future Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP6 models under low (SSP126) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios, thus spanning the range of future change. We find that Arctic sea ice loss—at present predominantly limited to the summer season—will under SSP585 take place in all regions and all months. The summer sea ice is lost in all the shelf seas regardless of emission scenario, whereas ice-free conditions in winter before the end of this century only occur in the Barents Sea. The seasonal transition to ice-free conditions is found to spread through the Atlantic and Pacific regions, with change starting in the Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea, respectively