Inferred changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries

It is vital to understand how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct ENSO's temporal evolution, rather than the variance of these temporal changes. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the variance changes from various proxy data sets to provide a unified and updated estimate of past ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data and then identifying its running variance. We also examine whether good temporal correspondence between proxy data and instrumental ENSO records implies a good representation of ENSO variance. In the climate modeling framework we show that a significant improvement in reconstructing ENSO variance changes is found when combining information from diverse ENSO-teleconnected source regions, rather than by relying on a single well-correlated location. This suggests that ENSO variance estimates derived from a single site should be viewed with caution. Finally, synthesizing existing ENSO reconstructions to arrive at a better estimate of past ENSO variance changes, we find robust evidence that the ENSO variance for any 30 yr period during the interval 1590–1880 was considerably lower than that observed during 1979–2009

Abelian functions associated with a cyclic tetragonal curve of genus six

We develop the theory of Abelian functions defined using a tetragonal curve of genus six, discussing in detail the cyclic curve y^4 = x^5 + λ[4]x^4 + λ[3]x^3 + λ[2]x^2 + λ[1]x + λ[0]. We construct Abelian functions using the multivariate sigma-function associated with the curve, generalizing the theory of theWeierstrass℘-function. We demonstrate that such functions can give a solution to the KP-equation, outlining how a general class of solutions could be generated using a wider class of curves. We also present the associated partial differential equations satisfied by the functions, the solution of the Jacobi inversion problem, a power series expansion for σ(u) and a new addition formula

Recent advances in real geometric reasoning

In the 1930s Tarski showed that real quantifier elimination was possible, and in 1975 Collins gave a remotely practicable method, albeit with doubly-exponential complexity, which was later shown to be inherent. We discuss some of the recent major advances in Collins method: such as an alternative approach based on passing via the complexes, and advances which come closer to "solving the question asked" rather than "solving all problems to do with these polynomials"

A Hydrophobic Gate in an Ion Channel: The Closed State of the Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor

The nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) is the prototypic member of the `Cys-loop' superfamily of ligand-gated ion channels which mediate synaptic neurotransmission, and whose other members include receptors for glycine, gamma-aminobutyric acid, and serotonin. Cryo-electron microscopy has yielded a three dimensional structure of the nAChR in its closed state. However, the exact nature and location of the channel gate remains uncertain. Although the transmembrane pore is constricted close to its center, it is not completely occluded. Rather, the pore has a central hydrophobic zone of radius about 3 A. Model calculations suggest that such a constriction may form a hydrophobic gate, preventing movement of ions through a channel. We present a detailed and quantitative simulation study of the hydrophobic gating model of the nicotinic receptor, in order to fully evaluate this hypothesis. We demonstrate that the hydrophobic constriction of the nAChR pore indeed forms a closed gate. Potential of mean force (PMF) calculations reveal that the constriction presents a barrier of height ca. 10 kT to the permeation of sodium ions, placing an upper bound on the closed channel conductance of 0.3 pS. Thus, a 3 A radius hydrophobic pore can form a functional barrier to the permeation of a 1 A radius Na+ ion. Using a united atom force field for the protein instead of an all atom one retains the qualitative features but results in differing conductances, showing that the PMF is sensitive to the detailed molecular interactions.Comment: Accepted by Physical Biology; includes a supplement and a supplementary mpeg movie can be found at http://sbcb.bioch.ox.ac.uk/oliver/download/Movies/watergate.mp

The Economic Resource Receipt of New Mothers

U.S. federal policies do not provide a universal social safety net of economic support for women during pregnancy or the immediate postpartum period but assume that employment and/or marriage will protect families from poverty. Yet even mothers with considerable human and marital capital may experience disruptions in employment, earnings, and family socioeconomic status postbirth. We use the National Survey of Families and Households to examine the economic resources that mothers with children ages 2 and younger receive postbirth, including employment, spouses, extended family and social network support, and public assistance. Results show that many new mothers receive resources postbirth. Marriage or postbirth employment does not protect new mothers and their families from poverty, but education, race, and the receipt of economic supports from social networks do

Quantifying the recent expansion of native invasive rush species in a UK upland environment

Rushes, such as soft rush (Juncus effusus L.), hard rush (Juncus inflexus L.) and compact rush (Juncus conglomeratus L.) have become problem species within upland grasslands across the UK and the coastal grasslands of western Norway. Indeed, being largely unpalatable to livestock and having a vigorous reproductive ecology means that they can rapidly come to dominate swards. However, rush dominance results in a reduction in grassland biodiversity and farm productivity. Anecdotal evidence from the UK suggests that rush cover within marginal upland grasslands has increased considerably in recent decades. Yet, there is currently no published evidence to support this observation. Here, we use recent and historical Google Earth imagery to measure changes in rush frequency over a 13-year period within four survey years: 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2018. During each survey year, we quantified rush presence or absence using a series of quadrats located within 300 upland grassland plots in the West Pennine Moors, UK. Data were analysed in two stages, first, by calculating mean rush frequencies per sample year using all the available plot-year combinations (the full dataset), and second by examining 25 differences in rush frequency using only the plots for which rush frequency data were available in every sample year (the continuous dataset). The full dataset indicated that rush frequency has increased by 82% between 2005 and 2018. Similarly, the continuous dataset suggested that rush frequency has increased by 174% over the same period, with the increases in frequency being statistically significant (P<0.05) between 2005-2018 and 2009-2018. We discuss the potential drivers of rush expansion in the West Pennine Moors, the ecological and agronomic implications of grassland rush infestations, and priorities for future research

Jography: Exploring meanings, experiences and spatialities of recreational road-running

Jogging is a relatively under-researched mobile practice with much existing literature focusing on ‘serious’ and competitive running. In this paper, we provide an account of some of the movements, meanings and experiences that together help produce the practice of jogging in the south-western English city of Plymouth. Drawing upon participant diaries and interviews, we uncover rich detail about how joggers ascribe not one but a number of meanings to their practice. Some of these are positive, some are negative; some complement each other and some compete with each other. We also consider how the experiences of joggers can be shaped by their ongoing need to develop tactics capable of enabling them to negotiate space with non-joggers. This is in some contrast to more competitive running that occurs in the separated space of an athletics track. Our sense is that better awareness of the meanings and experiences of jogging will be of value if the advertised health and sustainability benefits of the practice are to be more effectively encouraged and promoted