Spontaneous formation of optically induced surface relief gratings

A model based on Fick's law of diffusion as a phenomenological description of the molecular motion, and on the coupled mode theory, is developped to describe single-beam surface relief grating formation in azopolymers thin films. It allows to explain the mechanism of spontaneous patterning, and self-organization. It allows also to compute the surface relief profile and its evolution in time with good agreement with experiments

Quiver Diagonalization and Open BPS States

We show that motivic Donaldson–Thomas invariants of a symmetric quiver Q, captured by the generating function P Q, can be encoded in another quiver Q (∞) of (almost always) infinite size, whose only arrows are loops, and whose generating function P Q  (∞) is equal to P Q upon appropriate identification of generating parameters. Consequences of this statement include a generalization of the proof of integrality of Donaldson–Thomas and Labastida–Mariño–Ooguri–Vafa invariants that count open BPS states, as well as expressing motivic Donaldson–Thomas invariants of an arbitrary symmetric quiver in terms of invariants of m-loop quivers. In particular, this means that the already known combinatorial interpretation of invariants of m-loop quivers extends to arbitrary symmetric quivers

The transient atmospheric response to a reduction of sea-ice cover in the Barents and Kara seas

The observed reduction of Arctic sea-ice has drawn a lot of interest for its potential impact on mid-latitude weather variability. One of the outstanding challenges is to achieve a deeper understanding of the dynamical processes involved in this mechanism. To progress in this area, we have designed and performed an experiment with an intermediate complexity atmospheric model. The experiment shows a transient atmospheric response to a surface diabatic heating in the Barents and Kara seas leading to an anomalous circulation first locally, then over the polar region and finally over the Euro-Atlantic sector. A hypothesis that explains the mechanisms for the propagation of the signal is put forward. The discussion of this hypothesis provides an insight into the nature of the link between sea-ice forcing and the modes of internal variability of the atmosphere. We demonstrate that after removal of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, first the linear atmospheric response dominates and is confined in the proximity of the heating area, then a large-scale response, associated also to eddy-feedback, is found and finally anomalies reach the lower-stratosphere and show a hemispheric pattern in the troposphere. These results identify the drivers of the tropospheric connection between sea-ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation and highlight the role of the lower stratosphere

Permutohedra for knots and quivers

The knots-quivers correspondence states that various characteristics of a knot are encoded in the corresponding quiver and the moduli space of its representations. However, this correspondence is not a bijection: more than one quiver may be assigned to a given knot and encode the same information. In this work we study this phenomenon systematically and show that it is generic rather than exceptional. First, we find conditions that characterize equivalent quivers. Then we show that equivalent quivers arise in families that have the structure of permutohedra, and the set of all equivalent quivers for a given knot is parameterized by vertices of a graph made of several permutohedra glued together. These graphs can be also interpreted as webs of dual 3d $\mathcal{N}=2$ theories. All these results are intimately related to properties of homological diagrams for knots, as well as to multi-cover skein relations that arise in counting of holomorphic curves with boundaries on Lagrangian branes in Calabi-Yau three-folds.Comment: 72 pages, 36 figure

Birefringence properties and surface relief grating formation on methlacrylate polymers with photochromic side chains

International audienc

Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach.

OBJECTIVES: We investigate the chance of demonstrating Ebola vaccine efficacy in an individually randomised controlled trial implemented in the declining epidemic of Forécariah prefecture, Guinea. METHODS: We extend a previously published dynamic transmission model to include a simulated individually randomised controlled trial of 100,000 participants. Using Bayesian methods, we fit the model to Ebola case incidence before a trial and forecast the expected dynamics until disease elimination. We simulate trials under these forecasts and test potential start dates and rollout schemes to assess power to detect efficacy, and bias in vaccine efficacy estimates that may be introduced. RESULTS: Under realistic assumptions, we found that a trial of 100,000 participants starting after 1 August had less than 5% chance of having enough cases to detect vaccine efficacy. In particular, gradual recruitment precludes detection of vaccine efficacy because the epidemic is likely to go extinct before enough participants are recruited. Exclusion of early cases in either arm of the trial creates bias in vaccine efficacy estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The very low Ebola virus disease incidence in Forécariah prefecture means any individually randomised controlled trial implemented there is unlikely to be successful, unless there is a substantial increase in the number of cases

Duration of Ebola virus RNA persistence in semen of survivors: population-level estimates and projections.

Ebola virus can persist in semen after recovery, potentially for months, which may impact the duration of enhanced surveillance required after interruption of transmission. We combined recent data on viral RNA persistence with weekly disease incidence to estimate the current number of semen-positive men in affected West African countries. We find the number is low, and since few reported sexual transmission events have occurred, the future risk is also likely low, although sexual health promotion remains critical

Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures-including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing-might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. METHODS: For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. RESULTS: We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000-41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council

Effective suppression of Dengue virus using a novel group-I intron that induces apoptotic cell death upon infection through conditional expression of the Bax C-terminal domain

Introduction: Approximately 100 million confirmed infections and 20,000 deaths are caused by Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks annually. Global warming and rapid dispersal have resulted in DENV epidemics in formally non-endemic regions. Currently no consistently effective preventive measures for DENV exist, prompting development of transgenic and paratransgenic vector control approaches. Production of transgenic mosquitoes refractory for virus infection and/or transmission is contingent upon defining antiviral genes that have low probability for allowing escape mutations, and are equally effective against multiple serotypes. Previously we demonstrated the effectiveness of an anti-viral group I intron targeting U143 of the DENV genome in mediating trans-splicing and expression of a marker gene with the capsid coding domain. In this report we examine the effectiveness of coupling expression of ΔN Bax to trans-splicing U143 intron activity as a means of suppressing DENV infection of mosquito cells. Results: Targeting the conserved DENV circularization sequence (CS) by U143 intron trans-splicing activity appends a 3’ exon RNA encoding ΔN Bax to the capsid coding region of the genomic RNA, resulting in a chimeric protein that induces premature cell death upon infection. TCID50-IFA analyses demonstrate an enhancement of DENV suppression for all DENV serotypes tested over the identical group I intron coupled with the non-apoptotic inducing firefly luciferase as the 3’ exon. These cumulative results confirm the increased effectiveness of this αDENV-U143-ΔN Bax group I intron as a sequence specific antiviral that should be useful for suppression of DENV in transgenic mosquitoes. Annexin V staining, caspase 3 assays, and DNA ladder observations confirm DCA-ΔN Bax fusion protein expression induces apoptotic cell death. Conclusion: This report confirms the relative effectiveness of an anti-DENV group I intron coupled to an apoptosis-inducing ΔN Bax 3’ exon that trans-splices conserved sequences of the 5’ CS region of all DENV serotypes and induces apoptotic cell death upon infection. Our results confirm coupling the targeted ribozyme capabilities of the group I intron with the generation of an apoptosis-inducing transcript increases the effectiveness of infection suppression, improving the prospects of this unique approach as a means of inducing transgenic refractoriness in mosquitoes for all serotypes of this important disease

Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic : the "Weakening" of the 1980s and 1990s

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 4255-4266, doi:10.1175/JCLI4254.1The Indian monsoon–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship, according to which a drier than normal monsoon season precedes peak El Niño conditions, weakened significantly during the last two decades of the twentieth century. In this work an ensemble of integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model in the Indian Basin and forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) elsewhere is used to investigate the causes of such a weakening. The observed interdecadal variability of the ENSO–monsoon relationship during the period 1950–99 is realistically simulated by the model and a dominant portion of the variability is associated with changes in the tropical Atlantic SSTs in boreal summer. In correspondence to ENSO, the tropical Atlantic SSTs display negative anomalies south of the equator in the last quarter of the twentieth century and weakly positive anomalies in the previous period. Those anomalies in turn produce heating anomalies, which excite a Rossby wave response in the Indian Ocean in both the model and the reanalysis data, impacting the time-mean monsoon circulation. The proposed mechanism of remote response of the Indian rainfall to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures is further tested forcing the AGCM coupled to the ocean model in the Indian Basin with climatological SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean and observed anomalies elsewhere. In this second ensemble the ENSO–monsoon relationship is characterized by a stable and strong anticorrelation through the whole second half of the twentieth century.The experiments in this paper were performed as a contribution to the ENSEMBLES project funded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme, Contract GOCE-CT-2003-50553