Overlapping confidence intervals or standard error intervals: What do they mean in terms of statistical significance?

We investigate the procedure of checking for overlap between confidence intervals or standard error intervals to draw conclusions regarding hypotheses about differences between population parameters. Mathematical expressions and algebraic manipulations are given, and computer simulations are performed to assess the usefulness of confidence and standard error intervals in this manner. We make recommendations for their use in situations in which standard tests of hypotheses do not exist. An example is given that tests this methodology for comparing effective dose levels in independent probit regressions, an application that is also pertinent to derivations of LC(50)s for insect pathogens and of detectability half-lives for prey proteins or DNA sequences in predator gut analysis

Body size and tree species composition determine variation in prey consumption in a forest-inhabiting generalist predator

Trophic interactions may strongly depend on body size and environmental variation, but this prediction has been seldom tested in nature. Many spiders are generalist predators that use webs to intercept flying prey. The size and mesh of orb webs increases with spider size, allowing a more efficient predation on larger prey. We studied to this extent the orb-weaving spider Araneus diadematus inhabiting forest fragments differing in edge distance, tree diversity, and tree species. These environmental variables are known to correlate with insect composition, richness, and abundance. We anticipated these forest characteristics to be a principle driver of prey consumption. We additionally hypothesized them to impact spider size at maturity and expect shifts toward larger prey size distributions in larger individuals independently from the environmental context. We quantified spider diet by means of metabarcoding of nearly 1,000 A. diadematus from a total of 53 forest plots. This approach allowed a massive screening of consumption dynamics in nature, though at the cost of identifying the exact prey identity, as well as their abundance and putative intraspecific variation. Our study confirmed A. diadematus as a generalist predator, with more than 300 prey ZOTUs detected in total. At the individual level, we found large spiders to consume fewer different species, but adding larger species to their diet. Tree species composition affected both prey species richness and size in the spider's diet, although tree diversity per se had no influence on the consumed prey. Edges had an indirect effect on the spider diet as spiders closer to the forest edge were larger and therefore consumed larger prey. We conclude that both intraspecific size variation and tree species composition shape the consumed prey of this generalist predator

Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change

A number of influential assessments of the economic cost of climate change rely on just a small number of coupled climate–economy models. A central feature of these assessments is their accounting of the economic cost of epistemic uncertainty—that part of our uncertainty stemming from our inability to precisely estimate key model parameters, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. However, these models fail to account for the cost of aleatory uncertainty—the irreducible uncertainty that remains even when the true parameter values are known. We show how to account for this second source of uncertainty in a physically well-founded and tractable way, and we demonstrate that even modest variability implies trillions of dollars of previously unaccounted for economic damages

Evaluating three decades of the European Capital of Culture programme: a difference-in-differences approach

We measure the regional impact of the European Capital of Culture programme using a difference-in-differences approach. We compare the regions of cities that hosted the event with the regions of cities that tried to host it but did not succeed. GDP per capita in hosting regions is 4.5 percent higher compared to non-hosting regions during the event and the effect persists more than 5 years after it. This result suggests that the economic dimension of the event is important and supports claims that the event serves as catalyst for urban regeneration and development

DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise

Sea level rise (SLR) may impose substantial economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but characterizing its global impact remains challenging because SLR costs depend heavily on natural characteristics and human investments at each location – including topography, the spatial distribution of assets, and local adaptation decisions. To date, several impact models have been developed to estimate the global costs of SLR. Yet, the limited availability of open-source and modular platforms that easily ingest up-to-date socioeconomic and physical data sources restricts the ability of existing systems to incorporate new insights transparently. In this paper, we present a modular, open-source platform designed to address this need, providing end-to-end transparency from global input data to a scalable least-cost optimization framework that estimates adaptation and net SLR costs for nearly 10 000 global coastline segments and administrative regions. Our approach accounts both for uncertainty in the magnitude of global mean sea level (g.m.s.l.) rise and spatial variability in local relative sea level rise. Using this platform, we evaluate costs across 230 possible socioeconomic and SLR trajectories in the 21st century. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6), g.m.s.l. is likely to rise during the 21st century by 0.40–0.69 m if late-century warming reaches 2 ∘C and by 0.58–0.91 m with 4 ∘C of warming (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). With no forward-looking adaptation, we estimate that annual costs of sea level rise associated with a 2 ∘C scenario will likely fall between USD 1.2 and 4.0 trillion (0.1 % and 1.2 % of GDP, respectively) by 2100, depending on socioeconomic and sea level rise trajectories. Cost-effective, proactive adaptation would provide substantial benefits, lowering these values to between USD 110 and USD 530 billion (0.02 and 0.06 %) under an optimal adaptation scenario. For the likely SLR trajectories associated with 4 ∘C warming, these costs range from USD 3.1 to 6.9 trillion (0.3 % and 2.0 %) with no forward-looking adaptation and USD 200 billion to USD 750 billion (0.04 % to 0.09 %) under optimal adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that deeply uncertain physical processes like marine ice cliff instability could drive substantially higher global sea level rise, potentially approaching 2.0 m by 2100 in very high emission scenarios. Accordingly, we also model the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 m g.m.s.l. rises by 2100; the associated annual cost estimates range from USD 11.2 to 30.6 trillion (1.2 % and 7.6 %) under no forward-looking adaptation and USD 420 billion to 1.5 trillion (0.08 % to 0.20 %) under optimal adaptation. Our modeling platform used to generate these estimates is publicly available in an effort to spur research collaboration and support decision-making, with segment-level physical and socioeconomic input characteristics provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693868 (Bolliger et al., 2023a) and model results at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693869 (Bolliger et al., 2023b).</p

Community syndicalism for the United States: preliminary observations on law and globalization in democratic production

two structural labor crises for developed economies: 1) The channeling of substantial investment into non-productive, paper commodities, reducing growth of production for use and therefore reducing available aggregate job creation; and 2) The continued exportation of industrial jobs to other lower cost jurisdictions, and outsourcing, automation, just-in-time production, and speed-ups associated with global supply chains. As a result, local communities and regional populations have destabilized and even collapsed with attendant social problems. One possible response is Community Syndicalism – local community finance and operating credit for industrial production combined with democratic worker ownership and control of production. The result would increase investment directly for production, retain jobs in existing population centers, promote job skilling, and retain tax bases for local services and income supporting local businesses, at the same time increasing support for authentic political democracy by rendering the exploitive ideology of the Public/Private distinction superfluous. Slowing job exportation may reduce the global race to the bottom of labor standards and differential wage rates reducing the return to producers of value and increasing the skew of income distribution undermining social wages and welfare worldwide. Community Syndicalism can serve as moral goal in an alternative production model focusing incentives on long term stability of jobs and community economic base

Opportunities for advances in climate change economics

There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)]. We outline three areas where we believe research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies