The Simplicity of Optimal Trading in Order Book Markets

A trader’s execution strategy has a large effect on his profits. Identifying an optimal strategy, however, is often frustrated by the complexity of market microstructures. We analyse an order book based on continuous double auction market under two different models of trader’s behaviour. In the first case actions only depend on a linear combination of the best bid and ask. In the second model, traders adopt the Markov perfect equilibrium strategies of the trading game. Both models are analytically intractable, and so optimal strategies are identified by the use of numerical techniques. Using the Markov model we show that, beyond the best quotes, additional information has little effect on either the behaviour of traders or the dynamics of the market. The remarkable similarity of the results obtained by the linear model indicates that the optimal strategy may be reasonably approximated by a linear function. We conclude that while the order book market and strategy space of traders are potentially very large and complex, optimal strategies may be relatively simple and based on a minimal information set

Origin of Hysteresis Observed During Fatigue of Ceramic-Matrix Composites

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66076/1/j.1151-2916.1990.tb05239.x.pd

Surveillance of acute SARS-CoV-2 infections in elementary schools and daycare facilities in Bavaria, Germany (09/2020–03/2021)

Introduction: Here we report our results of a multi-center, open cohort study ("COVID-Kids-Bavaria") investigating the distribution of acute SARS-CoV-2 infections among children and staff in 99 daycare facilities and 48 elementary schools in Bavaria, Germany. Materials and Methods: Overall, 2,568 children (1,337 school children, 1,231 preschool children) and 1,288 adults (466 teachers, 822 daycare staff) consented to participate in the study and were randomly tested in three consecutive phases (September/October 2020, November/December 2020, March 2021). In total, 7,062 throat swabs were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 by commercial RT-PCR kits. Results: In phase I, only one daycare worker tested positive. In phase II, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in three daycare workers, two preschool children, and seven school children. In phase III, no sample tested positive. This corresponds to a positive test rate of 0.05% in phase I, 0.4% in phase II and 0% in phase III. Correlation of a positive PCR test result with the local-7-day incidence values showed a strong association of a 7-day-incidence of more than 100/100,000 as compared to <100/100,000 (OR = 10.3 [1.5-438], p < 0.005). After phase III, antibody testing was offered to 713 study participants in elementary schools. A seroprevalence rate of 7.7% (students) and 4.5% (teachers) was determined. Discussion: During the initial waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the risk of a positive SARS-CoV-2 result correlated positively with the local 7-day incidence. Hence, the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infections were reflected in schools and daycare facilities. An increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the setting of daycare and elementary schooling was unlikely

Health care use and costs of adverse drug events emerging from outpatient treatment in Germany: A modelling approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study's aim was to develop a first quantification of the frequency and costs of adverse drug events (ADEs) originating in ambulatory medical practice in Germany.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The frequencies and costs of ADEs were quantified for a base case, building on an existing cost-of-illness model for ADEs. The model originates from the U.S. health care system, its structure of treatment probabilities linked to ADEs was transferred to Germany. Sensitivity analyses based on values determined from a literature review were used to test the postulated results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For Germany, the base case postulated that about 2 million adults ingesting medications have will have an ADE in 2007. Health care costs related to ADEs in this base case totalled 816 million Euros, mean costs per case were 381 Euros. About 58% of costs resulted from hospitalisations, 11% from emergency department visits and 21% from long-term care. Base case estimates of frequency and costs of ADEs were lower than all estimates of the sensitivity analyses.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The postulated frequency and costs of ADEs illustrate the possible size of the health problems and economic burden related to ADEs in Germany. The validity of the U.S. treatment structure used remains to be determined for Germany. The sensitivity analysis used assumptions from different studies and thus further quantified the information gap in Germany regarding ADEs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study found costs of ADEs in the ambulatory setting in Germany to be significant. Due to data scarcity, results are only a rough indication.</p

Percentage of Patients with Preventable Adverse Drug Reactions and Preventability of Adverse Drug Reactions – A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Numerous observational studies suggest that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden in healthcare, but no meta-analysis using a standardised definition for adverse drug reactions exists. The aim of the study was to estimate the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions in adult outpatients and inpatients. METHODS: Studies were identified through searching Cochrane, CINAHL, EMBASE, IPA, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science in September 2010, and by hand searching the reference lists of identified papers. Original peer-reviewed research articles in English that defined adverse drug reactions according to WHO's or similar definition and assessed preventability were included. Disease or treatment specific studies were excluded. Meta-analysis on the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions was conducted. RESULTS: Data were analysed from 16 original studies on outpatients with 48797 emergency visits or hospital admissions and from 8 studies involving 24128 inpatients. No studies in primary care were identified. Among adult outpatients, 2.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-3.2%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 52% (95% CI: 42-62%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable. Among inpatients, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.1-51%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 45% (95% CI: 33-58%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis corroborates that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden to healthcare among adult outpatients. Among both outpatients and inpatients, approximately half of adverse drug reactions are preventable, demonstrating that further evidence on prevention strategies is required. The percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions among inpatients and in primary care is largely unknown and should be investigated in future research

Accelerated Evolution of Mitochondrial but Not Nuclear Genomes of Hymenoptera: New Evidence from Crabronid Wasps

Mitochondrial genes in animals are especially useful as molecular markers for the reconstruction of phylogenies among closely related taxa, due to the generally high substitution rates. Several insect orders, notably Hymenoptera and Phthiraptera, show exceptionally high rates of mitochondrial molecular evolution, which has been attributed to the parasitic lifestyle of current or ancestral members of these taxa. Parasitism has been hypothesized to entail frequent population bottlenecks that increase rates of molecular evolution by reducing the efficiency of purifying selection. This effect should result in elevated substitution rates of both nuclear and mitochondrial genes, but to date no extensive comparative study has tested this hypothesis in insects. Here we report the mitochondrial genome of a crabronid wasp, the European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum, Hymenoptera, Crabronidae), and we use it to compare evolutionary rates among the four largest holometabolous insect orders (Coleoptera, Diptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera) based on phylogenies reconstructed with whole mitochondrial genomes as well as four single-copy nuclear genes (18S rRNA, arginine kinase, wingless, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase). The mt-genome of P. triangulum is 16,029 bp in size with a mean A+T content of 83.6%, and it encodes the 37 genes typically found in arthropod mt genomes (13 protein-coding, 22 tRNA, and two rRNA genes). Five translocations of tRNA genes were discovered relative to the putative ancestral genome arrangement in insects, and the unusual start codon TTG was predicted for cox2. Phylogenetic analyses revealed significantly longer branches leading to the apocritan Hymenoptera as well as the Orussoidea, to a lesser extent the Cephoidea, and, possibly, the Tenthredinoidea than any of the other holometabolous insect orders for all mitochondrial but none of the four nuclear genes tested. Thus, our results suggest that the ancestral parasitic lifestyle of Apocrita is unlikely to be the major cause for the elevated substitution rates observed in hymenopteran mitochondrial genomes